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Reply #8: I don't think that's "PERIOD" at all [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-06-10 08:57 AM
Response to Reply #3
8. I don't think that's "PERIOD" at all
One can't determine the "chance of catching an election flipping error" without making some assumptions about the nature of the error. If one assumes that the errors entail switching relatively small numbers of votes in contests that were close to begin with, then the auditing problem is very hard -- but in that case, election-flipping probably isn't common. (It may depend on what kinds of elections you are thinking about.) Very loosely speaking, the more common election-flipping errors are, the more useful even a crude audit protocol is for detecting or deterring them.

For statewide contests, California's 1% manual tally is kind of huge. (For smaller contests, nothing huge about it -- but it still isn't useless.) Of course Vermont is much smaller, and a 1% audit there would be barely a sneeze.
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