1988-2004 MoE exceeded in 66 of 238 state exit polls (65 for Rep, 1 Dem)

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1988-2004 MoE exceeded in 66 of 238 state exit polls (65 for Rep, 1 Dem)

TruthIsAll     source: http://richardcharnin.com/StateExitPollDiscrepancies.htm

Feb. 18, 2010

An analysis of state exit poll discrepancies for the 1988-2004 elections yields an interesting pattern. The data is from Edison Media Research/ Mitofsky International: "Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004" (January 19, 2005).

E-M provided unadjusted exit poll data for 238 of 255 state presidential elections from 1988 to 2004. They define "Within Precinct Error (WPE)" as the difference between the unadjusted exit poll share margin and the recorded vote-count share margin. “Error” implies that the exit polls were wrong. But millions of votes are uncounted in every election (nearly 11 million in 1988 and 4 million in 2004).  Therefore, it is more accurate to refer to Within Precinct Discrepancy (WPD). A positive WPD indicates that the vote shift favored the GOP; a negative WPD favored the Democrat.

For example, in NY 2004 the 12.2 WPD is the difference between Kerry’s exit poll share margin (30.5%) and recorded vote-count share margin (18.3%). Kerry’s unadjusted exit poll share (64.5%) was 6.1% higher than his recorded share, far exceeding the 2-3% exit poll margin of error (MoE). The WPD is double the share deviation.

 

MoE
 ± 2-3%

Unadjusted 2004 Exit Poll

Share

(a)

Kerry

Bush

Margin

 

Recorded 2004 Vote-Count

Share

(b)

Kerry

Bush

Margin

 

WPD
(a - b)
Margin ?

 

NY

64.5

34.0

30.5

 

58.4

40.1

18.3

 

12.2

 

Of the 238 state elections — from exit poll to vote-count — 194 shifted to the vote for the Republican and 44 to the Democrat.

 

Shift to
Dem
GOP
Total

2004
5
46
51

2000
14
32
46

1996
10
37
47

1992
4
44
48

1988
11
35
46

Total
44
194
238

Share
18.50%
81.50%
100%

 

One would expect an approximately equal shift. The fact that 82% vote shifted to the Republican over the five presidential elections was either due to errors in the exit polls or vote miscounts. It could not have been due to chance. But we have 238 exit polls, not just a few. Exit polls are known to be quite accurate — outside the USA.

Assuming a 3% MoE for each of the 238 state exit polls:
– In 15 Democratic states, the average WPD was 4.9. The MoE was exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
– In 15 Battleground states, the average WPD was 3.8. The MoE was also exceeded in 25 elections, ALL for the Republican.
– In 21 Republican states, the average WPD was 2.4. The MoE was exceeded in 16 elections, ALL but ONE for the Republican.

Were the discrepancies due to Republican voters reluctance to be polled in each of the five elections? Not likely.
Were they due to Democratic voters misstating how they voted to the exit pollsters and actually voting for the Republican in each of the five elections? Not likely.

Or were they due to the millions of mostly Democratic votes that were uncounted? That is more than likely. It is a fact.
Or were they due to votes that were miscounted in favor of the Republican? That is quite likely.

We assume a conservative 3% unadjusted exit poll margin of error for each state election. Since the vote-share deviation is one-half the WPD, a 3% MoE is exceeded when the WPD is at least 6%. Given the 95% confidence level, approximately 12 of 238 elections would be expected to fall outside the margin of error (6 for the Democrats and 6 for the Republicans). But the MoE was exceeded in 66 elections — 65 in favor of the Republicans. The probability is ZERO that this was due to chance.

The probability that the MoE would be exceeded a given state is 1/20 (5%). It is 1/40 (2.5%) for the Democrat and 2.5% for the Republican.
The probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state elections is given by the Excel BINOMDIST function:

Prob =1- BINOMDIST (N-1, 238, 2.5%, TRUE)

The following table lists the probability that the MoE would be exceeded in at least N of 238 state exit polls.
The function cuts off at N=34, a 1 in 200 trillion probability.
Imagine what it is for 65 states.

 

N
2
5
10
15
20
25
30
34
---
65

Probability
93.80%
54.80%
3.90%
0.04%
7.90E-07
4.80E-10
1.10E-13
5.00E-15

??????

or 1 in
1
2
26
2,642
1,258,312
2,080,038,070
9,324,222,830,995
200,159,983,438,689

 

Assuming a more realistic 2% exit poll MoE, it would be exceeded if the WPD were at least 4%. The 2% MoE was exceeded in 109 of 238 state elections: 100 in favor of the Republican, 9 in favor of the Democrats.

Let’s take a closer look at the 2004 election.
– The average Democratic state WPD was a whopping 8.9. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 11 of 15 states (73%) — all for Bush.
– The average Battleground state WPD was 6.9. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 10 of 15 states (67%) for Bush and none for Kerry.
– The average Republican state WPD was 3.8. The 3% MoE was exceeded in 7 of 21 states (33%) — all for Bush.

The 3% margin of error was exceeded in a total of 28 states — all in favor of Bush. The probability is 1 in 19 trillion that the MoE would be exceeded in 16 states. Imagine what the probability is for 28 states.

Assuming a 2% MoE, the probability is even lower, since the MoE was exceeded in 36 states: 34 in favor of Bush, 2 in favor of Kerry.

The distribution of the WPD in Democratic, GOP and Battleground states indicates that the GOP strategy was:
1) Pad Bush’s popular vote "mandate" by cutting Democratic margins in heavily populated BLUE states (NY, CA, CT, NJ, MD, MA, MI).
2) Steal the electoral votes in Battleground states (FL, OH, NM, CO, NV, MO, IA).
3) Pad the vote in RED states with large minority (Democratic) voting blocs (TX, MS, AL, TN, SC). Ignore the others (ND, SD, OK, MT, KY).

Unadjusted exit poll data has not been released for 2008. Is it because the data would confirm what the 1988-2004 exit polls indicate? In every election, the Democrats do much better than the official recorded vote indicates. As always, the Final 2008 National Exit Poll was forced to match the recorded vote-count. A True Vote Model (see below) indicates that Obama won by over 22 million votes.

Historical WPD

Within Precinct Discrepancy — Vote Margin  Δ :  State Exit Poll  to  Vote-Count
 
Voting Booth to Exit Poll Interview to (secret) Counting of Candidate & Proposition Votes
 

positive
negative

#
(#)

 ==   %, difference in  vote-share  margins — in favor of the GOP
 ==   %, difference in  vote-share  margins — in favor of the DEM

Combined 50 States+DC

3.82 avg

 

 

WPD,  average  Δ (%)
 

# of STATES with Vote Margin   SHIFTED

from unadjusted Exit Poll to Vote-Count
...in favor of the GOP
...in favor of the DEM

# of STATES with WPD (%)  EXCEEDING
 Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 3%


 Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 2%

 

2008
 
XX.X   ?

Does the NEP MSM
Dare Release the
Exit Poll Report?

2004

7.40



46
5


28


36

2000

2.01



32
14


4


15

1996

1.93



37
10


7


12

1992

5.40



44
4


20


31

1988

2.38



35
11


7


15

 

5-Election Avg

3.82


5-Election Tot

194
44


66


109

•

81.5

 % of 238 vote-share margin shifts favored the GOP in election vote-counts

 

18.5

 % of 238 vote-share margin shifts favored the DEM in election vote-counts

• 

65

#

(

98.5

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

1

(#)

(

1.5

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count

• 

100

#

(

91.7

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

9

(#)

(

8.3

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count

 

15 Democratic States

4.9 avg

 

 

WPD,  average  Δ (%)
 

# of STATES with WPD (%)  EXCEEDING
Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 3%


Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 2%

 

CA
CT
DE
DC
HI

IL
ME
MD
MA
MI

NJ
NY
RI
VT
WA

 

2004

 8.9 


11


13

11.6
16.0
15.9
2.8
8.2

3.5
4.0
7.3
7.7
6.4

9.1
12.2
5.3
15.2
8.0

2000

3.0


2


4

3.8
0.9
7.1
na
na

6.4
2.1
4.3
4.3
2.2

0.4
3.3
0.4
(0.4)
3.7

1996

1.8


0


4

4.7
(4.2)
1.3
na
na

(1.2)
4.4
3.6
3.3
3.5

1.9
(2.1)
1.1
5.0
2.0

1992

7.3


9


13

8.5
8.3
7.3
na
na

6.1
5.1
8.1
7.1
4.9

11.2
4.6
9.0
8.6
5.5

1988

4.0


3


8

3.8
5.2
1.8
na
0.6

2.6
6.4
5.2
6.8
1.2

4.2
7.2
(0.2)
5.8
5.4

 

5-Election Avg

4.9

5-Election Tot

25


42

6.5
5.2
6.7
2.8
4.4

3.5
4.4
5.7
5.8
3.6

5.4
5.0
3.1
6.8
4.9

• 

25

#

(

100.0

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

0

(#)

(

0.0

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count

• 

41

#

(

97.6

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

1

(#)

(

2.4

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count

 

15 Battleground States

3.8 avg

 

 

WPD,  average  Δ (%)
 

# of STATES with WPD (%)  EXCEEDING
Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 3%


Exit Poll  Margin of Error  assuming ± 2%

 

CO
FL
IA
MN
MO

NV
NH
NM
NC
OH

OR
PA
VA
WV
WI

 

2004

 6.9 


10


13

6.1
7.8
3.0
9.2
5.8

9.9
14.0
8.0
11.9
10.6

1.8
8.4
8.7
(5.9)
4.8

2000

0.8


2


5

5.6
0.6
(3.0)
(0.5)
(1.8)

6.0
2.4
(5.1)
9.8
1.0

na
0.8
2.0
(4.5)
(2.4)

1996

3.8


4


5

1.5
0.6
(0.3)
(1.7)
5.8

na
12.2
7.0
6.5
3.1

2.4
3.6
6.5
2.6
2.8

1992

5.2


6


9

7.2
5.5
2.0
6.4
8.6

(2.1)
10.1
6.3
4.2
4.4

13.6
2.0
3.5
3.2
2.5

1988

1.9


3


3

3.0
2.4
0.6
(1.2)
0.6

3.0
6.0
6.6
0.4
1.6

7.4
0.8
(0.6)
0.2
(2.2)

 

5-Election Avg

3.8

5-Election Tot

25


35

4.7
3.4
0.5
2.4
3.8

4.2
8.9
4.6
6.6
4.1

6.3
3.1
4.0
(0.9)
1.1

• 

25

#

(

100.0

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

0

(#)

(

0.0

 %)  >  ± 3% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count

• 

32

#

(

91.4

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of GOP in the vote-count

 

3

(#)

(

8.6

 %)  >  ± 2% MoE/XP shifted in favor of DEM in the vote-count