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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-06-09 01:12 PM
Response to Reply #25
26. Back in the USSR Quoting two Ruskies? Show us their evidence
Edited on Sun Sep-06-09 01:23 PM by WillE
Back in the USSR Quoting two Ruskies? Show us their evidence.
You are reduced to quoting a couple of foreigners who know
squat about U.S. elections.
How pathetic.
At least show us their analysis.
Do some work for a change.

And while your at it, show us yours.

As long as you mention Florida, gag on this evidence that
Bush stole the election.
Did you ever do this kind of analysis?

1. 2004 REGISTRATION was heavily Democratic
2. Kerry led the UNADJUSTED exit polls

2004        Kerry    Bush
IMS WPE     51.0%   48.2%   
Best GEO    49.2    50.3    
Composite   49.3    50.1 

Recorded    47.1    52.1 ???????

3. Adjust Exit Poll weights to actual voter registration
shares
Kerry wins by 50.7-48.1% (200,000 votes) 

4. Adjust to plausible DRE and Opscan county vote shares
Kerry wins by 52.0-46.8% (400,000 votes) 

5. Sensitivity Analysis I: Calculate Kerrys Florida vote
share and margin over a range of DRE and OS county
registration/vote share scenarios.  If Kerry won just 7% (his
National Exit Poll share) of Florida Republicans, then to win
the state he needs just  79% of Democrats in OpScan counties
and 86% in TS (DRE) counties.

6. Sensitivity Analysis II: Calculate Kerrys Florida vote
share for various combination shares of Democrats and
Independents. Kerry wins the state if he captures 84% of
Democrats and 58% of independents.

7. FL PRE-ELECTION POLLS
The final moving average projection: 
Kerry 51.1-48.8%

8. Bush FL Final Exit Poll APPROVAL: 53%;  Kerry had 48.8% of
the vote. That is Bunk.
Bush FL approval was close to the national 48%. 
Kerry had 52.4%	of the vote.

9. WHEN DECIDED: Final FL Exit had Bush leading 54-46 one
month before the election. Bunk.
The pre-election polls showed a virtual tie 30 days before
(see the trend below). 
Kerry wins 52.2% of the vote.



Florida Recorded Vote (in thousands)
2000	Vote	Pct       2004	Vote     Pct
Gore	2912	48.8%	 Kerry	3584	47.1%
Bush 	2913	48.8%	 Bush	3965	52.1%
Other	139	2.4%	 Other	62	0.8%

Recorded Vote   by County Type
County Vote   Kerry   Bush    Other   Kerry   Bush Other
DRE    3.90   51.3%   47.8%   0.9%    2.00    1.86 .04
OS     3.71   42.3%   57.0%   0.7%    1.57    2.11 .03

Total  7.61   47.1%   52.1%   0.8%    3.57    3.98 .06

County	Mix	 Votes 	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DRE 
Dem	41.57%	 1.62 	84%	15%	1%	1.36	0.24	0.02
Rep	36.13%	 1.41 	6%	93%	1%	0.08	1.31	0.01
Ind	22.30%	 0.87 	60%	38%	2%	0.52	0.33	0.02
								
Vote	3.903	 3.90 	50.5%	48.3%	1.2%	1.97	1.89	0.05
								
OS 
Dem	41.15%	 1.53 	71%	28%	1%	1.08	0.43	0.02
Rep	39.52%	 1.47 	5%	94%	1%	0.07	1.38	0.01
Ind	19.33%	 0.72 	60%	38%	2%	0.43	0.27	0.01
								
Vote	3.707	 3.71 	42.8%	56.0%	1.2%	1.59	2.08	0.04
								
Total
Dem	41.37%	 3.15 	77.7%	21.3%	1.0%	2.45	0.67	0.03
Rep	37.79%	 2.88 	5.5%	93.5%	1.0%	0.16	2.69	0.03
Ind	20.85%	 1.59 	60.0%	38.0%	2.0%	0.95	0.60	0.03
								
Vote	7.610	 7.61 	46.7%	52.1%	1.2%	3.56	3.96	0.09
                     

Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004
(see pg.32 for state WPE measures)

2004        Kerry    Bush
IMS WPE     51.0%   48.2%   
Best GEO    49.2    50.3    
Composite   49.3    50.1 

Recorded    47.1    52.1


Florida General Exit Poll 
Bush wins by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes)

	Reg	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	38%	 2.89    86%	13%	1%	2.49	0.38	0.03
Rep	39%	 2.97     7%	92%	1%	0.21	2.73	0.03
Ind	23%	 1.75    60%	38%	2%	1.05	0.67	0.04
								
Total	7.61	 7.61   49.2%	49.6%	1.2%	3.74	3.77	0.09

 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 	 
 	 	 	 	 	 
2000 Recorded		
Voted	Record	Unctd	Cast	Deaths	Alive
DNV					
Gore	2.91	0.13	3.04	0.16	2.89
Bush	2.91	0.04	2.95	0.14	2.81
Nader	0.14	0.01	0.14	0.01	0.14
 					
Total	5.96	0.17	6.14	0.30	5.84


2004 Calculated 	 
      Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
         DNV 	2.27	29.0%	54%	45%	1%
Gore     95%	2.74	35.1%	90%	10%	0%
Bush     95%	2.67	34.2%	9%	91%	0%
Nader    95%	0.13	1.6%	64%	19%	17%
					 
Total    5.55	7.81	100%	51.41%	48.02%	0.57%
 	 	        7.81 	4.02 	3.75 	0.04 

Sensitivity analysis				
										
												
 	 	 	 	 	 		 	 	 	 	 	 
	Kerry Vote Share	 		 	Kerry Vote Share	
 					 		 					 
Gore% of	Bush 2000 Turnout:95.0%	           Kerry share of
Bush 2000 voters: 9.0%	 
Unctd		Gore Voter Turnout		   Gore voters	New voters (DNV in
2000)	 
51.4%	91%	93%	95%	97%	99%	51.4%	50%	52%	54%	56%	58%

85%	51.0%	51.3%	51.6%	51.8%	52.1%	94%	51.6%	52.2%	52.8%	53.4%	54.0%
80%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.8%	52.0%	92%	50.9%	51.5%	52.1%	52.7%	53.3%
75%	50.9%	51.1%	51.4%	51.7%	51.9%	90%	50.2%	50.8%	51.4%	52.0%	52.6%
70%	50.8%	51.1%	51.3%	51.6%	51.9%	88%	49.5%	50.1%	50.7%	51.3%	51.9%
65%	50.7%	51.0%	51.2%	51.5%	51.8%	86%	48.8%	49.4%	50.0%	50.6%	51.2%
 					 		 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 		 Kerry Margin		 
 					 		 					 
85%	0.21 	0.25 	0.29 	0.33 	0.38 	94%	0.30 	0.39 	0.48 	0.57
	0.67
80%	0.19 	0.24 	0.28 	0.32 	0.36 	92%	0.19 	0.28 	0.37 	0.46
	0.56
75%	0.18 	0.22 	0.26 	0.31 	0.35 	90%	0.08 	0.17 	0.26 	0.35
	0.45
70%	0.17 	0.21 	0.25 	0.29 	0.33 	88%	-0.03	0.06 	0.15 	0.25
	0.34
65%	0.15 	0.20 	0.24 	0.28 	0.32 	86%	-0.14	-0.05	0.04 	0.14
	0.23
												
____________________________________________________________________________________________

Model II  Adjusted Florida General Exit Poll (Composite)
County Registration Weights and Vote shares 

Unadjusted Exit Poll 
The WPE (Within Precinct Error) is the average difference in
margin between the raw, unadjusted exit poll and recorded
vote.
Kerry won the unadjusted exit poll by 51.0-48.2% (210,000
votes).   

Composite Estimate
The Composite is the adjusted weighted average of the Prior
Estimate and Best Survey Estimate.  

Florida General (Composite) Exit Poll 
Bush won the poll by 49.6-49.2% (30,000 votes) 

	Reg	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	38%	 2.89    86%	13%	1%	2.49	0.38	0.03
Rep	39%	 2.97     7%	92%	1%	0.21	2.73	0.03
Ind	23%	 1.75    60%	38%	2%	1.05	0.67	0.04
								
Total	7.61	 7.61   49.2%	49.6%	1.2%	3.74	3.77	0.09

Adjust Exit Poll weights to actual voter registration shares
Kerry wins by 50.7-48.1% (200,000 votes) 
 
			
	Mix	 Votes 	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	41.37%	 3.15 	86%	13%	1%	2.71	0.41	0.03
Rep	37.79%	 2.88 	7%	92%	1%	0.20	2.65	0.03
Ind	20.85%	 1.59 	60%	38%	2%	0.95	0.60	0.03
								
Vote	7.61 	 7.61 	50.73%	48.06%	1.21%	3.86	3.66	0.09
	

Adjust to plausible DRE and Opscan county vote shares
Kerry wins by 52.0-46.8% (400,000 votes) 

DRE	Mix	 Votes 	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	41.57%	 1.62 	90%	9%	1%	1.46	0.15	0.02
Rep	36.13%	 1.41 	7%	92%	1%	0.10	1.30	0.01
Ind	22.30%	 0.87 	62%	36%	2%	0.54	0.31	0.02
								
Vote	3.903	 3.90 	53.8%	45.0%	1.2%	2.10	1.76	0.05
								
OS 								
Dem	41.15%	 1.53 	87%	12%	1%	1.33	0.18	0.02
Rep	39.52%	 1.47 	7%	92%	1%	0.10	1.35	0.01
Ind	19.33%	 0.72 	60%	38%	2%	0.43	0.27	0.01
								
Vote	3.707	 3.71 	50.2%	48.6%	1.2%	1.86	1.80	0.04
								
Total								
Dem	41.37%	 3.15 	88.5%	10.5%	1.0%	2.79	0.33	0.03
Rep	37.79%	 2.88 	7.0%	92.0%	1.0%	0.20	2.65	0.03
Ind	20.85%	 1.59 	61.1%	36.9%	2.0%	0.97	0.59	0.03
								
Vote	7.61	 7.61 	52.0%	46.8%	1.2%	3.96	3.56	0.09


Sensitivity Analysis I

Calculate Kerrys Florida vote share and margin over a range
of TS and OS county registration/vote share scenarios.  

If Kerry won 7% (his National Exit Poll share) of Florida
Republicans, then to win the state he needs just  79% of
Democrats in OpScan counties and 86% in TS (DRE) counties.

	Kerry share of DRE county Democrats		
	share	86.0%	88.0%	90.0%	92.0%	94.0%		
         of OS
                  Kerry Vote share				
	91%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.2%	53.7%		
	89%	51.6%	52.0%	52.4%	52.8%	53.3%		

	87%	51.2%	51.6%	52.0%	52.4%	52.9%		

	85%	50.8%	51.2%	51.6%	52.0%	52.5%		
	83%	50.4%	50.8%	51.2%	51.6%	52.1%		
        81%	50.0%	50.4%	50.8%	51.2%	51.7%
        79%	49.6%	50.0%	50.4%	50.8%	51.3%
								
		Kerry Vote margin				
	91%	0.39 	0.46 	0.52 	0.59 	0.65 
	89%	0.33 	0.39 	0.46 	0.52 	0.59 

	87%	0.27 	0.33 	0.40 	0.46 	0.53 

	85%	0.21 	0.27 	0.34 	0.40 	0.47 
	83%	0.15 	0.21 	0.28 	0.34 	0.41 
	81%	0.09 	0.15 	0.22 	0.28 	0.35 
	79%	0.02 	0.09 	0.15 	0.22 	0.28 

Sensitivity Analysis II

Calculate Kerrys Florida vote share for various combination
shares of Democrats and Independents.  
Kerry wins the state if he captures 84% of Democrats and 58%
of independents.

Base Case Scenario

	Mix	 Votes 	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	41.37%	 3.15 	86%	13%	1%	2.71	0.41	0.03
Rep	37.79%	 2.88 	7%	92%	1%	0.20	2.65	0.03
Ind	20.85%	 1.59 	60%	38%	2%	0.95	0.60	0.03
								
Vote	7.610 	 7.61 	50.7%	48.1%	1.2%	3.86	3.66	0.09

 	      Kerry % Democrats				
Kerry    84.0%	85.0%	86.0%	87.0%	88.0%
% Ind
              Kerry Vote share				
64%	50.7%	51.1%	51.6%	52.0%	52.4%
62%	50.3%	50.7%	51.1%	51.6%	52.0%
60%	49.9%	50.3%	50.7%	51.1%	51.6%
58%	49.5%	49.9%	50.3%	50.7%	51.1%
56%	49.1%	49.5%	49.9%	50.3%	50.7%
54%	48.7%	49.1%	49.5%	49.9%	50.3%
					
             Kerry Vote margin				
64%	 0.20 	 0.27 	 0.33 	 0.39 	 0.46 
62%	 0.14 	 0.20 	 0.27 	 0.33 	 0.39 
60%	 0.08 	 0.14 	 0.20 	 0.27 	 0.33 
58%	 0.01 	 0.08 	 0.14 	 0.20 	 0.27 
56%	 (0.05)	 0.01 	 0.08 	 0.14 	 0.20 
54%	 (0.11)	 (0.05)	 0.01 	 0.08 	 0.14 
					

Florida Pre-election Polls
The final moving average projection: Kerry 51.1-48.8%

			Poll   	                Projection              Moving Avg
Date	Pollster	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush	Nader	Kerry	Bush
23-May	Zogby	        49	48	1	50.4	48.6	1.0		
31-May	Rasmussen	39	51	1	45.3	53.7	1.0		
06-Jun	Zogby	        50	48	1	50.7	48.3	1.0		
14-Jun	Survey USA	43	50	1	47.2	51.8	1.0		
17-Jun	Rasmussen	48	44	1	52.9	46.1	1.0		

20-Jun	Zogby	        46	50	1	48.1	50.9	1.0		
22-Jun	Rasmussen	48	42	1	54.3	44.7	1.0		
23-Jun	ARG	        47	46	1	51.2	47.8	1.0		
27-Jun	Quinnipiac	43	43	5	49.3	45.7	5.0		
30-Jun	Rasmussen	48	43	0	54.3	45.7	0.0	50.4	48.3

11-Jul	Survey USA	47	44	0	53.3	46.7	0.0	50.7	48.1
15-Jul	ARG	        47	44	3	51.2	45.8	3.0	51.3	47.4
21-Jul	LA Times	44	45	2	50.3	47.7	2.0	51.2	47.3
22-Jul	Gallup          46	50	1	48.1	50.9	1.0	51.3	47.2
23-Jul	Zogby	        48	49	1	49.4	49.6	1.0	51.0	47.6

30-Jul	Zogby	        50	47	2	50.7	47.3	2.0	51.2	47.2
05-Aug	ARG	        50	43	2	53.5	44.5	2.0	51.1	47.2
10-Aug	Quinnipiac	47	41	4	52.6	43.4	4.0	51.3	46.7
21-Aug	Zogby	        50	49	0	50.7	49.3	0.0	51.4	47.1
22-Aug	Gallup          46	48	2	48.8	49.2	2.0	51.2	47.3

24-Aug	Rasmussen	47	49	2	48.4	49.6	2.0	50.9	47.5
25-Aug	Research2k	46	46	2	50.2	47.8	2.0	50.6	47.7
11-Sep	Rasmussen	47	48	1	49.8	49.2	1.0	50.3	47.9
14-Sep	Survey USA	45	51	0	47.8	52.2	0.0	50.0	48.4
16-Sep	Rasmussen	47	48	0	50.5	49.5	0.0	50.0	48.5

17-Sep	Zogby	        48	48	1	50.1	48.9	1.0	50.2	48.4
20-Sep	ARG	        46	45	2	50.9	47.1	2.0	50.3	48.2
22-Sep	Gallup          45	47	2	49.2	48.8	2.0	50.2	48.3
26-Sep	Rasmussen	49	48	0	51.1	48.9	0.0	50.0	48.7
27-Sep	Gallup          44	49	2	47.5	50.5	2.0	49.6	49.3

29-Sep	Rasmussen	47	50	0	49.1	50.9	0.0	49.5	49.4
03-Oct	Survey USA	46	51	0	48.1	51.9	0.0	49.4	49.6
04-Oct	Rasmussen	46	52	0	47.4	52.6	0.0	49.3	49.9
05-Oct	Mason-Dixon	44	48	0	49.6	50.4	0.0	49.3	50.1
05-Oct	ARG	        47	45	2	51.2	46.8	2.0	49.4	49.9

05-Oct	Zogby	        50	49	1	50.0	49.0	1.0	49.6	49.6
05-Oct	Rasmussen	45	52	0	47.1	52.9	0.0	49.3	49.9
10-Oct	Rasmussen	45	49	0	49.2	50.8	0.0	49.2	50.1
10-Oct	Wash Post	47	47	1	50.5	48.5	1.0	49.2	50.2
14-Oct	Rasmussen	46	48	0	50.2	49.8	0.0	49.3	50.3

16-Oct	Mason-Dixon	45	48	0	49.9	50.1	0.0	49.2	50.4
17-Oct	Survey USA	50	49	0	50.7	49.3	0.0	49.4	50.3
18-Oct	Zogby	        49	50	0	49.7	50.3	0.0	49.5	50.2
18-Oct	Rasmussen	47	47	0	51.2	48.8	0.0	49.7	49.9
21-Oct	Research 2000	48	47	2	50.1	47.9	2.0	50.0	49.6

23-Oct	Rasmussen	48	48	0	50.8	49.2	0.0	50.1	49.5
24-Oct	Survey USA	50	48	0	51.4	48.6	0.0	50.1	49.6
25-Oct	ARG	        49	46	0	52.5	47.5	0.0	50.3	49.5
26-Oct	Quinnipiac	44	44	1	51.7	47.3	1.0	50.7	49.0
26-Oct	Rasmussen	48	48	0	50.8	49.2	0.0	50.8	48.9

27-Oct	Zogby	        46	48	0	50.2	49.8	0.0	50.8	49.0
27-Oct	NY Times	48	47	2	50.1	47.9	2.0	50.8	48.8
28-Oct	Rasmussen	46	49	0	49.5	50.5	0.0	50.7	48.9
29-Oct	Mason-Dixon	45	49	0	49.2	50.8	0.0	50.6	49.0
29-Oct	Zogby	        47	45	0	52.6	47.4	0.0	50.8	48.7

29-Oct	Rasmussen	47	48	0	50.5	49.5	0.0	50.8	48.8
30-Oct	Gallup          49	45	0	53.2	46.8	0.0	51.0	48.7
30-Oct	Zogby	        49	47	0	51.8	48.2	0.0	51.1	48.6
30-Oct	Rasmussen	47	49	0	49.8	50.2	0.0	51.0	48.8
31-Oct	Opinion Dyn	49	44	1	53.2	45.8	1.0	51.1	48.6

31-Oct	Survey USA	48	49	0	50.1	49.9	0.0	50.9	48.8
31-Oct	Zogby	        48	47	0	51.5	48.5	0.0	51.0	48.8
31-Oct	Rasmussen	47	50	0	49.1	50.9	0.0	50.9	48.9
01-Nov	ARG	        50	48	0	51.4	48.6	0.0	51.0	48.9
01-Nov	Zogby	        48	48	0	50.8	49.2	0.0	51.1	48.8

_____________________________________________________________________________________


Florida 2004 Exit Poll (Composite)

Party-ID (2743 respondents) 
				
	Mix	Votes	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
Dem	38%	 2.89    86%	13%	1%	2.49	0.38	0.03
Rep	39%	 2.97     7%	92%	1%	0.21	2.73	0.03
Ind	23%	 1.75    60%	38%	2%	1.05	0.67	0.04
								
Total	7.61	 7.61   49.2%	49.6%	1.2%	3.74	3.77	0.09

Adjusted to party registration weights

Dem	41.37%	 3.15    86%	13%	1%	2.71	0.41	0.03
Rep	37.79%	 2.88     7%	92%	1%	0.20	2.65	0.03
Ind	20.85%	 1.59    60%	38%	2%	0.95	0.60	0.03
								
Vote	7.610 	 7.61   50.7%	48.1%	1.2%	3.86	3.66	0.09

_____________________________________________________________________

  
Bush Approval (2409)	

Approval    Pct   Kerry   Bush Other			
Strong       35     4      96    0			
Approve      18     17     82    1
Disapprove   12     84     13    3
Strong       35     98      1    1
 
Share%	    100    48.8   50.3   0.9
Votes              3720   3828   69

Adjusted to 48.5% average approval

Strong     33.0    4    96    0			
Approve    15.5   17    82    1
Disapprove 14.5   84    13    3
Strong     37.0   98     1    1
 
Share%    100    52.4   46.7   0.9
Votes	  7610	 3988   3554   69		

 
_____________________________________________________________________

 
When Decided (2162)

Decided	  Pct	Kerry	Bush	Other
3days	  8	53	45	2
Week	  3	70	27	3
Month	  12	61	38	1
Before    77	46	54	0
				
Share%	  100	49.1	50.6	0.4
Votes	 7610	3735	3847	28


Adjusted 30+days to 50/50

3days	  8	53	45	2
Week	  3	70	27	3
Month	  12	61	38	1
Before    77	50	50	0
				
Share%	 100	52.2	47.5	0.4
Votes	 7610	3969	3612	28

_____________________________________________________________________


	Mix    KERRY	BUSH	Other	Bush Change in share from 2000
GENDER					
Male 	46	47	52	1	-2 Males shifted to Kerry from Bush? 
Female	54	52	48	0	+3 Females shifted to Bush from Gore?

TOTAL 	100	49.7	49.8	0.5	
					
GENDER/RACE					
WMale	33	42	57	1	
WFemale	38	46	53	1	
NWMale	13	59	40	1	
NWFem	16	64	36	0	

TOTAL	100	49.3	49.9	0.8	
					
RACE					
White	70	44	55	1	-2 Whites move away from Bush?
Black	12	87	12	1	+5 Blacks shifted to Bush by 5%?
Hsp/Lat	15	46	54	0	+5 Hispanics shifted to Bush by 5%?
Asian    1	-	-	-	-
Other    2	34	66	-	-

TOTAL	100	48.8	49.4	0.8	
 
AGE					
18-29    17	60	39	1	 -1 
30-44    27	48	51	1	 +1
45-59    28	44	55	1	 +6  Baby boomers for Bush?
60+      28	49	50	1	-1

TOTAL	100	49.2	49.8	1.0	
					
18-64    81	49	50	1	 2
65+      19	51	49	0	-3 

TOTAL 	100	49.4	49.8	0.8	

					
INCOME					
<15k 	  9	61	38	1	
15-30	 15	61	37	2	
30-50	 22	53	46	1	
50-75	 21	47	52	1	
75-100   14	40	60	0	
100-150  10	46	54	0	
150-200   4	41	58	1	
200+      5	43	56	1	

TOTAL	 100	50.2	48.9	0.9	
					
<50k 	 46	57	42	1	
50k+ 	 54	44	55	1	

TOTAL	100	50.0	49.0	1.0	
					
50-100   81	52	48	0	
100+	19	44	56	0	

TOTAL   100	50.5	49.5	0.	
					
					
EDUCATION					
NoHS	3	55	43	2	-4
HighSch	20	53	47	0	 5  Bush gain in HSG while losing other
80%?
College	34	50	49	1	 0
ColGrad	27	46	54	0	-3
PostGr	16	48	51	1	-1

TOTAL	100	49.3	50.1	0.6	
					
COLLEGE					
No	57	52	48	0	
Yes	43	46	53	1	

TOTAL	100	49.4	50.2	0.4	
				
IDEOLOGY					
Liberal	 20	82	16	2	-1
Moderate 47	59	41	0	-5 Big Moderate shift to Kerry
Conserv	 33	14	85	1	 8 Conservatives overwhelmed Libs and
Mods?

TOTAL	100	48.8	50.5	0.7	
					
FIRST-TIME VOTER					
Yes	13	58	41	1	
No	87	48	51	1	

TOTAL	100	49.3	49.7	1.0	
					
RELIGION					
Protestant 51	42	57	1	2
Catholic   27	45	55	0	3
Jewish	   6	81	19	0	0
Other	   6	71	28	1	-12
None	   10	68	30	2	4   Atheists for Bush?

TOTAL	  100	49.5	49.7	0.8	
					
FINANCIAL SITUATION					
Better  34	16	84	0	48
Worse	28	87	12	1	-50
Same	38	51	48	1	-16

TOTAL	100	49.2	50.2	0.6	
					
DID CANDIDATE CALL YOU?					
Kerry	16	81	18	1      
Bush	15	13	86	1	
Both	20	57	43	1	
None	49	48	51	1	

TOTAL	100	49.8	49.4	1.0	

					
POPULATION- 5 CATEGORIES					
Urban	 7	35	65	0	
50-500k  19	50	49	1 
Suburb   61	53	47	0	
10-50k   9	45	54	1	
Rural	 4	34	66	0 

TOTAL	100	49.7	50.0	0.3	

					
POPULATION- 3 CATEGORIES					
Urban	 26	46	53	1	4 Bush Urban Legend?
Suburbs  61	52	48	0	1
Rural	 13	42	57	1	1

TOTAL	100	49.1	50.5	0.4	

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