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Reply #10: You still believe that Bush won, "the greatest miracle of all" [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-04-09 07:16 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. You still believe that Bush won, "the greatest miracle of all"
Edited on Fri Sep-04-09 07:18 PM by WillE
Thanks for affirming my point: You still believe Bush won.
At least you are consistent.
But AFAIK, only YOU still believe that Bush won.

So why must you keep trying to drill your "belief" that Bush won into the heads of Democrats on this Democratic Forum who believe otherwise. They have seen ZERO evidence that Bush won.

Professor Steven Freeman holds a Ph.D. from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
He is on the faculty of the University of Pennsylvania's Center for Organizational Dynamics.
He teaches research methods and survey design, a domain that includes polling. He has received national awards for his research.

I quote from Freeman's wonderful book "Was the 2004 Presidential election stolen":

"By these calculations, the 2004 electorate comprised 45.2 million Gore 2000 voters and a remarkable 52.6 million Bush 2000 voters - remarkable because in 2000 Bush received only 50.5 million votes. If we are to believe the NEP figures, this is indeed the greatest miracle of all in the 2004 election: ONE in NINE Gore voters, through death, disability or divine intervention, disappeared from the electorate, but no such fate befell a SINGLE Bush 2000 voter. Indeed, another TWO million miraculously appeared."

Mitofsky initially said the massive discrepancy was due to more Kerry voters responding than Bush voters (rBr). But he was refuted by his own data set. Duh, maybe that's because there WERE more Kerry voters. He never considered THAT possibility. And neither, in 2009, do you.

He also said that there was absolutely nothing wrong with his exit poll design.

So once again, I will ask the simple question: Who still agrees with you?
Where is the book that proves Bush won? Hell, forget the book.
Where is YOUR EVIDENCE?

Your "belief" that the exit polls were wrong just doesn't cut it.

Are we to believe that ALL the mathematically-trained election researchers are wrong?
And that YOU are right?
How do YOU explain THAT?
What makes YOU so ALL-KNOWING?

Is YOUR "evidence" more convincing than THEIR evidence?
Your "evidence" is simply a "belief" that returning Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry.

You say:
I don't claim that the official vote count was strictly correct, but I do believe that the exit polls were wrong (i.e., that the error exceeded the statistical "margin of error"). As a separate issue, I also believe that a full recount (if possible) would confirm that Bush received more votes. None of this amounts to claiming a fair election. It's hard to believe that you're incapable of making these distinctions.

As usual, you have complicated a very straightforward analysis:
Late vote shares = exit poll shares
Late vote shares <> recorded vote shares



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  -Late Vote Smoking Guns: 2000-2008 WillE  Sep-03-09 01:50 PM   #0 
  - the crucial error appears to be here:  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 04:14 PM   #1 
  - Yes, the NY late vote indicated a Gore bias. But there was NO Kerry bias in 2004. And 2008 ?  WillE   Sep-03-09 06:17 PM   #2 
     - it seems to me that you are simply ruling out an obvious possibility  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 08:46 PM   #3 
        - It seems to me that you easily dismiss the very strong State Late vote vs. Exit Poll correlation  WillE   Sep-04-09 08:35 AM   #6 
           - it seems to me that you didn't read my post  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-04-09 09:04 AM   #7 
           - You see, the point is: the exit polls were RIGHT in 2004. Kerry really DID win.  WillE   Sep-04-09 12:23 PM   #8 
              - that's a claim, and your own evidence undermines it  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-04-09 04:44 PM   #9 
                 - You still believe that Bush won, "the greatest miracle of all"  WillE   Sep-04-09 07:16 PM   #10 
                    - this is yet another non-responsive post  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-04-09 07:43 PM   #11 
                       - I asked you for YOUR evidence. You resort to whining.  WillE   Sep-04-09 07:54 PM   #12 
                          - umm, is post #9 actually invisible, or what?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-04-09 08:48 PM   #13 
                             - Your obfuscation won't work. Late votes, exit polls and True votes INDEPENDENTLY expose you.  WillE   Sep-05-09 09:26 AM   #14 
                                - "what are you going to do, bleed on me?"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-05-09 11:52 AM   #15 
                                   - You are in a state of pure panic; you are the one bleeding  WillE   Sep-05-09 08:03 PM   #16 
                                      - hahaha  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-05-09 09:27 PM   #17 
                                         - You are dreaming..  WillE   Sep-05-09 10:02 PM   #18 
                                            - do you have any substantive response to post #9?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 06:19 AM   #19 
                                               - Give us some names...  WillE   Sep-06-09 07:39 AM   #20 
                                               - do you have a substantive response to post #9?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 08:37 AM   #22 
                                               - Umm, did you read the reply in post # 14, or what?  WillE   Sep-06-09 08:19 AM   #21 
                                                  - any reader can verify that you simply ignored my points  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 08:49 AM   #23 
                                                     - Our evidence vs. your evidence  WillE   Sep-06-09 09:16 AM   #24 
                                                     - do you have a substantive response to post #9?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 09:57 AM   #25 
                                                     - Back in the USSR Quoting two Ruskies? Show us their evidence  WillE   Sep-06-09 12:12 PM   #26 
                                                     - WTF?! "two Ruskies"?! (oh... got anything on post #9?)  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 06:41 PM   #27 
                                                     - Now I see where TIA, er, Wile E., gets that punch card lever machine.  Wilms   Sep-06-09 06:55 PM   #28 
                                                     - Phillips would NOT have written the article if he knew that the NY exits were off by 12%...  WillE   Sep-06-09 07:28 PM   #30 
                                                     - Wow. Just wow.  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 07:37 PM   #31 
                                                     - OK. You failed logic. So I won't expect you to make sense of what I'm about to say.  Wilms   Sep-06-09 09:29 PM   #38 
                                                     - YOU speak of science? Your method is faith-based belief...  WillE   Sep-06-09 10:14 PM   #40 
                                                     - When you demonstrate a rudimentery understanding of lever machines  Wilms   Sep-06-09 10:28 PM   #41 
                                                     - Educate us, then, since you are such an expert...  WillE   Sep-06-09 11:14 PM   #42 
                                                     - Round and round you go, TIA.  Wilms   Sep-07-09 12:26 AM   #43 
                                                     - No, keeping the NY facts hidden is distracting...  WillE   Sep-07-09 07:13 AM   #44 
                                                     - What's it like being irrelevant?  Wilms   Sep-07-09 11:15 AM   #48 
                                                     - Love your ability to link and not think .. n/t  WillE   Sep-06-09 08:22 PM   #35 
                                                     - So where is their evidence?  WillE   Sep-06-09 07:17 PM   #29 
                                                     - you're asking for kindness?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 07:45 PM   #32 
                                                     - You replied just as WE ALL KNEW you would. With NOTHING.  WillE   Sep-06-09 08:06 PM   #34 
                                                     - "WE"? you and your imaginary friend? can he help out with post #9?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 09:10 PM   #36 
                                                     - So did Myagkov et al actually analyze the U.S. (S)elections? NO!  WillE   Sep-06-09 07:56 PM   #33 
                                                     - OK, this time you actually needed to read your own post  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-06-09 09:13 PM   #37 
                                                     - Hehe. Not good enough. DISPLAY AND EXPLAIN THE RELEVANT ANALYSIS.  WillE   Sep-06-09 09:47 PM   #39 
                                                     - this time you're not even going to admit your blunder?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-07-09 07:22 AM   #45 
                                                     - You just cut yourself off. You read the book? Then show us what you learned.  WillE   Sep-07-09 07:36 AM   #46 
                                                     - do you have a substantive response to post #9?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-07-09 07:44 AM   #47 
                                                     - Uhm, er, pardon. But TIA just used a bunch of all caps.  Wilms   Sep-07-09 11:17 AM   #49 
                                                     - hey, if he does it seven times, my exoskeleton will collapse  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-07-09 12:10 PM   #50 
                                                     - Do you have anything SUBSTANTIVE to say?  WillE   Sep-07-09 12:16 PM   #51 
                                                     - TIA, you are the "one-track agenda". And it's all about you.  Wilms   Sep-07-09 02:15 PM   #52 
  - K&R!!  Stevepol   Sep-04-09 03:52 AM   #4 
  - K&unR.  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-04-09 04:50 AM   #5 
 

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