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Reply #6: It seems to me that you easily dismiss the very strong State Late vote vs. Exit Poll correlation [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-04-09 08:35 AM
Response to Reply #3
6. It seems to me that you easily dismiss the very strong State Late vote vs. Exit Poll correlation
Edited on Fri Sep-04-09 08:46 AM by WillE
It seems to me that you ignore the very strong State Late vote vs. Exit poll correlation

For the Top 20 late vote states:
Kerry's average Late vote share was 52.2%;
his average exit poll share was 51.5%
The correlation for the Top 20 was 0.92

I know you like scatter charts.
But knowing you, I don't think you will appreciate this one.
Image

Top Correl Group Correl
1-10 0.86 1-10 0.86
1-20 0.92 11-20 0.94
1-30 0.77 21-30 0.23
1-40 0.64 31-40 0.61

1-51 0.72 41-51 0.84


State Late Vote Exit Late
CA 2589 60.6% 54.4%
NY 499 65.1% 65.8%
AZ 369 47.0% 44.7%
NJ 206 58.3% 57.6%
MD 200 60.7% 60.3%

OH 172 54.4% 56.2%
PA 127 55.7% 58.6%
OR 123 52.1% 54.6%
WA 123 57.9% 57.7%
CO 112 50.7% 53.6%

NC 106 49.4% 45.4%
VA 103 49.8% 48.8%
UT 77.1 29.9% 21.4%
AK 70.8 41.7% 39.0%
GA 66.8 42.8% 46.2%

IL 66.6 57.4% 70.3%
TX 66.6 40.9% 45.3%
MA 51.3 65.7% 71.5%
FL 46.8 51.3% 50.5%
KS 40.4 38.0% 42.7%
---------------------------------------------------
SC 37.8 46.4% 45.1%
CT 34.9 63.3% 56.3%
MS 34.8 46.2% 44.2%
IN 32.6 40.3% 62.0%
MI 29.4 54.9% 58.4%

MO 24.8 49.3% 63.8%
RI 24.1 63.0% 62.6%
IA 21.4 51.2% 62.1%
MN 21.1 56.5% 47.9%
AR 18.1 45.3% 48.2%

NE 16.6 37.3% 43.6%
NV 16.5 53.8% 50.4%
LA 15.1 44.6% 79.5%
WI 14.6 52.6% 36.3%
NM 14.4 53.5% 61.4%

WV 12.1 40.6% 40.5%
ID* 9.27 31.2% 15.4%
AL* 7.61 42.8% 67.6%
ME* 6.88 56.5% 87.5%
KY* 5.84 39.9% 30.2%

MT* 5.47 38.6% 37.0%
HI* 3.59 56.8% 82.6%
VT* 3.55 68.0% 48.7%
WY* 2.95 31.9% 23.8%
ND* 2.43 33.4% 37.4%

NH* 2.42 57.6% 55.8%
SD 2.13 37.0% 32.8%
DC* 1.88 92.2% 90.5%
DE* 1.62 61.9% 67.3%
TN* 0.32 43.1% 56.0%
OK* 0.03 33.5% 39.1%
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