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Late Vote Smoking Guns: 2000-2008 [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-03-09 02:50 PM
Original message
Late Vote Smoking Guns: 2000-2008
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Edited on Thu Sep-03-09 03:22 PM by WillE
Late Vote Smoking Guns: 2000-2008

In each election from 2000-2008, the Democrats won the
national exit poll and late vote by bigger margins than the
recorded vote indicates. 

http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/LateVoteFraud.htm

National Democratic Vote Shares
Gores 2000 exit poll share was within the 1.0% margin of
error.
Kerrys 2004 exit poll share was far beyond the margin of
error.

The 2008 exit poll report has not been released. 
Obamas True vote share was far beyond the margin of error.

National Democratic Vote Shares
Election Day (initial_ share vs. late vs. exit poll 

	Recorded ExitP	Initial	Late 
2000	48.9%	49.4%	47.9%	53.2%				
2004	48.4%	52.0%	48.3%	53.5%				
2008	52.9%	57.0%	52.3%	59.2%				

NY Democratic Vote Shares

In the 2000-2008 New York presidential elections, did the
late paper ballot voters represent a legitimate sample of the
Election Day (lever) voters? The reason why this is an
important question is because the average NY Democratic Late
vote share was 66.9% while the initial average Election Day
lever share was just 60.0%. In the three elections, there
were a total of 1.63 million late and 20.2 million Election
Day votes.

NY Initial (Lever) vs. Late (Paper ballot) vs. Exit Poll
(2008 exit poll report not released; calculated 67.5% True
Vote)

	Lever	Dem	Share		Paper	Dem	Share	Exit
2000	6,270	3,747	59.8%		552	361	65.4%	61.9%
2004	6,892	3,993	57.9%		499	321	64.3%	65.1%
2008*	7,011	4,360	62.2%		584	412	70.7% 	67.5%
								
Total	20,174	12,100	60.0%		1,635	1,094	66.9%	64.8%

Any analysis comparing 2000 and 2004 vote shares MUST adjust
for third-party shares.
In 2000, Nader and other 3rd party voters comprised 3.7%
(3.95m) of the 105.4 million recorded votes.  In 2004,
third-parties comprised just 1.0% (1.22m) of the 122.3m
recorded. 

The preliminary 12:22am National exit poll (13047
respondents) indicated that 64% of third-party 2000 voters
defected to Kerry and just 17% to Bush. The Final (13660)
indicated that 71% of Nader voters defected to Kerry and 21%
to Bush. The Final was forced to match the recorded vote
count.

Gore won the NY recorded vote by 60.2-35.2% over Bush.
Third-party voters comprised 4.6% (311k) of the total NY
vote.
Approximately 4% defected in 2004 (3% to Kerry and 1% to
Bush). 

To compare 2000 to 2004, we compare apples to apples by
eliminating the third-party influence. So we must add back 3%
of the 4.6% third-party share who defected in 2004 to Gores
share and 1% to Bush. Gores adjusted recorded lever share
increases from 59.8% to 62.8% (2.6% lower than his 65.4% late
paper share).

In 2000, Gore had 65.4% of NY late votes.
In the unadjusted exit poll, Gore had 61.9%. 
Adding back the 3% who defected to Kerry and Gore had an
adjusted 64.9% lever share. 

The late voter share matched to within 0.5% of the exit poll.
Very close.
The close match indicates that NY late voters were similar to
Election Day voters.

In 2004, Kerry won 64.3% of NY late votes.
His GEO exit poll share was 65.1%.
The late voter share matched to within 0.8% of the exit poll.
Very close.
The close match indicates that NY late voters were similar to
Election Day voters.

In 2008, Obama won 70.7% of NY late votes.
His recorded Election Day (lever) share was 62.2% and his
total share was 62.8%.
That is a 7-8% disparity.
The 2008 Exit Poll report has not been released, so there is
no WPE measure.

Obamas calculated NY True Vote (based on a reasonable mix of
returning voters and vote shares) was 67.5%. His True Vote was
3.2% lower than his late vote share. Not that close but in the
same direction.

National Vote
Initial vs. Late (Paper ballot) Democratic vote shares		

	Record	Exit	Initial	Late 
2000	48.4%	49.4%	47.9%	53.2%				
2004	48.3%	52.0%	47.8%	53.5%				
2008	52.9%	57.0%	52.3%	59.2%				

NY Initial (Lever) vs. Late (Paper ballot) Democratic vote
shares	
	Lever	Dem	Share	Paper	Dem	Share	
2000	6,270	3,747	59.8%	552	361	65.4%	
2004	6,892	3,993	57.9%	499	321	64.3%	
2008	7,011	4,360	62.2%	584	412	70.7%	
								
Total	20,174	12,100	60.0%	1,635	1,094	66.9%	

				Deviation from Lever	
	Total	Record  ExitP	Paper	Exit		
2000	6,822	60.2%	61.9%	5.6%	2.1%		
2004	7,391	58.4%	65.1%	6.4%	7.2%		
2008	7,595	62.8%	67.5%	8.5%	5.3%		
								
Total	21,808	60.5%	64.8%	6.8%	4.9%		
								

NY 2000
Add back 75% of third-party Nader/other votes to Gore

Adjusted NY recorded vote:
Recorded	Share	Diff						
Lever	        59.8%	-						
+ 75% Nader	3.0%	-						
Adj Gore	62.8%	3.00%						
Late Paper	65.4%	5.64%						
Diff	        -2.6%							

Adjusted NY exit poll:								
Exit Poll	61.9%							
+ 75% Nader	3.0%							
Adj Gore 	64.9%							
Late Paper	65.4%							
Diff	       -0.50%							

Gores late paper ballot shares matched the adjusted exit
poll shares to within 0.5%.
This is evidence that the 552k late NY 2000 voters matched
the demographics of 6.3m lever voters.
The analysis indicates that there was virtually zero fraud in
the NY 2000 election.				
								
NY 2004

Kerry           Share	Diff						
Lever	        57.9%	-						
Exit Poll	65.1%	7.16%						
Late Paper	64.3%	6.39%						
Diff	        0.77%							

Kerrys late Paper ballot shares matched the GEO exit poll to
within 0.8%	
This is evidence that the 499k late NY 2004 voters matched
the demographics of 6.9m lever voters.
The True vote indicates that election fraud reduced Kerrys
NY share by approximately 6%.

NY 2008

Obama	        Share	Diff						
Lever	        62.2%	-						
Late Paper	70.7%	8.47%						
True Vote	67.5%	5.32%						
Diff	         3.2%							

Obamas share of the 584k late paper ballots was 8.5% higher
than the Election Day (lever) vote.
His late paper ballot share was 3.2% higher than his
calculated True vote.
The True vote indicates that election fraud reduced Obamas
NY share by approximately 5%.

The 2008 exit poll report has not been and apparently never
will be released.


2004: Reconciling the Final 5 Million Votes
  
The 12% difference in margin between the initial 117 million
recorded votes (Bush 51-Kerry 48%) and the late 5.0m (Kerry
53-Bush 44%) caused a 0.5m decline in the official Bush
margin (3.5 to 3.0m). Was this due to the fact that the
election was already decided at the 117m mark and
vote-rigging was no longer necessary? Late votes (absentees,
etc.)  were irrelevant as soon as Bush was declared the
winner.  

Many still recall that the day after the election the media
reported that Bush won by 3.5m votes, and remain unaware of
the 5.0m late votes. Edison-Mitofsky matched the Final Exit
Poll to the initial 117m recorded votes. 
 
Kerry's 52.98% share (2.65 of the 5.01m late votes) of the
122.29m recorded total is 64.79m. Adding his 75% share  of
uncounted votes (2.58 of 3.45m) brings his final total to
67.37m (53.5%). This is quite close to the Election
Calculator  
model which determined that Kerry won by 53.2-45.4%. The
model accounted for total votes cast in 2000 (recorded  plus
uncounted) less mortality and assumed a 95% turnout of 2000
voters in 2004. The 12:22am NEP vote shares were  used to
calculate the national vote. 
 
There was a 0.72 correlation between the late state vote
shares and the exit polls. For states which had more than 40k
late votes, the correlation statistic was a much stronger
0.93, as one would expect.  
 
This is further evidence that the "pristine" exit
polls were close to the true vote:
1) the high correlation between state exit polls and late
vote shares
2) the small discrepancies between the exit polls and the
late vote shares
3) the consistent pattern of a higher Kerry share of late
votes compared to initial  recorded votes
 
How does one explain the discrepancies between the initial
and late recorded state vote shares? Kerrys late vote share
exceeded his initial share in 38 states (15 of 19
battleground states). Corresponding vote discrepancies were
significant in the East but near zero in the Far West,
strongly suggesting election fraud in early-reporting,
vote-rich battleground states. 

A false impression was created that Bush was winning the
popular vote while the state and national exit polls
indicated that  Kerry was winning big. In the Far Western
states there was virtually no difference between the 15.6m
initial and 3.3m late  recorded vote shares; Kerry was a
steady 53% winner. But the Far West average exit poll WPE was
6.4%, indicating a  56% Kerry share. Was vote-padding still in
effect? 
 
1) Final state an national exit polls were adjusted to match
the recorded vote.
2) Unadjusted pristine state exit polls were close to the
True vote.
3) The final 5 million recorded votes were close to the True
vote.
 
 
Final Recorded Vote
Bush              62,040,610       50.73%
Kerry             59,028,439       48.27%
Other              1,224,499        1.00%
Total            122,293,548        100%
 
Initial 117.28m votes                         
Bush              59,834,866       51.02%
Kerry             56,373,514       48.07%
Other             1,073,874         0.91%
Total            117,282,254        100%
 
Late 5.0m votes
Bush              2,205,744        44.02%
Kerry             2,654,925        52.98%
Other               150,625         3.00%
Total             5,011,294         100%
 
 
Kerry Vote Share Summary
Recorded   Kerry    Votes
Final      48.27%   122.3m
Initial    48.07%   117.3m
Late       52.98%     5.0m
 
State Exit Polls based on weighted average WPE 
Method     Kerry   WPE   WtdAvg   Description
VNS        51.8%   5.9%  7.1%    VNS: 4 outliers removed from
average 
DSS        52.2%   6.7%  7.7%    Decision Summary Screen: 4
outliers removed
IMS        51.9%   6.3%  7.3%    Input Mgt Screen: no
outliers removed
 
National Exit Poll Timeline (Gender demographic)
3:59pm     50.48% 8349 respondents
7:33pm     50.78% 11027   
12:22am    50.78% 13047
Final      47.78% 13660 (matched to initial 117m recorded
votes)
 
True Vote  53.23% (Election Calculator-see below)
 
  
The Final 5.6 Million Recorded Votes
                                                             
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politicselections/vote2004/president.htm
        
Kerry 2-party Unweighted Average Vote Share                  
                           
States grouped by Total Late Votes 
 
Late     Exit     Late      Diff
100k+    55.1%    54.8%     0.3%
30-100k  47.0%    49.5%    -2.6%
10-30k   50.2%    54.6%    -4.4%
0-10k    48.3%    51.4%    -3.2%
                                   
All      50.0%    52.5%    -2.5%
 
 
Kerrys 2-party Regional Average Share                       
                      
 
* State had less than 2000 late votes
 
Avg       Final    Initial   Late    Change    WPE      Exit
Wtd       48.8%    48.5%     54.3%    5.8%     5.8%     51.6%
Unwtd     48.4%    48.4%     52.0%    3.7%     6.0%     51.5%
 
Weighted 
East      56.5%    56.2%    62.4%    6.2%     9.7%     61.3%
Midwest   48.1%    48.1%    56.1%    8.1%     3.4%     49.8%
South     42.7%    42.6%    46.6%    4.0%     5.8%     45.6%
West      41.7%    41.7%    41.9%    0.2%     4.8%     44.1%
FarW      53.2%    53.3%    53.0%    -0.2%    6.4%     56.4%
 
Avg      Final    Initial  Late    Change    WPE      Exit
  
East                                                
CT       55.3%    55.3%    56.3%    1.0%     15.7%    63.3%
DC*      90.5%    90.5%    90.5%    0.0%     3.4%     92.2%
DE*      53.8%    53.8%    67.3%    13.4%    15.9%    61.9%
MA       62.7%    62.7%    71.5%    8.8%     5.8%     65.7%
MD       56.6%    56.2%    60.3%    4.1%     8.1%     60.7%
                                                    
ME*      54.6%    54.5%    87.3%    33.0%    3.8%     56.5%
NH*      50.7%    50.7%    55.8%    5.2%     13.6%    57.6%
NJ       53.4%    53.1%    57.6%    4.5%     9.7%     58.3%
NY       59.3%    58.8%    65.8%    7.0%     11.4%    65.1%
PA       51.3%    51.1%    58.6%    7.5%     8.8%     55.7%
RI       60.6%    60.5%    62.6%    2.1%     4.7%     63.0%
VT*      60.3%    60.3%    48.7%    -11.6%   15.0%    68.0%
                                                    
Avg      Final    Initial  Late    Change    WPE      Exit
Midwest                                             
IA       49.7%    49.5%    62.1%    12.6%    3.0%     51.2%
IL       55.2%    55.1%    70.3%    15.2%    4.4%     57.4%
IN       39.6%    39.5%    62.0%    22.6%    1.5%     40.3%
KS       37.1%    37.0%    42.7%    5.8%     1.7%     38.0%
OH       48.9%    48.7%    56.2%    7.4%     10.9%    54.4%
                                                    
MI       51.7%    51.7%    58.4%    6.7%     6.3%     54.9%
MN       51.8%    51.8%    47.9%    -3.9%    9.3%     56.5%
MO       46.4%    46.3%    63.8%    17.5%    5.8%     49.3%
ND*      36.1%    36.1%    37.4%    1.3%     -5.2%    33.4%
NE       33.2%    33.0%    43.6%    10.6%    8.1%     37.3%
                                                    
OK*      34.4%    34.4%    34.4%    0.0%     -1.9%    33.5%
SD       39.1%    39.1%    32.8%    -6.3%    -4.2%    37.0%
WI       50.2%    50.2%    36.3%    -13.9%   4.7%     52.6%
 
Avg     Final   Initial   Late    Change    WPE      Exit
South                                               
AL*     37.1%    37.1%    67.6%    30.6%    11.3%    42.8%
AR      45.1%    45.0%    48.2%    3.2%     0.5%     45.3%
FL      47.5%    47.5%    50.5%    3.0%     7.6%     51.3%
GA      41.6%    41.6%    46.2%    4.6%     2.2%     42.8%
LA      42.7%    42.6%    79.5%    36.9%    3.8%     44.6%
                                                    
KY*     40.0%    40.0%    30.2%    -9.8%    -0.1%    39.9%
MS      40.1%    40.0%    44.2%    4.3%     11.3%    46.2%
NC      43.8%    43.7%    45.4%    1.6%     11.3%    49.4%
SC      41.4%    41.3%    45.1%    3.8%     10.0%    46.4%
TN*     42.8%    42.8%    56.0%    13.2%    0.5%     43.1%
                                                    
VA      45.9%    45.8%    48.8%    3.0%     7.9%     49.8%
WV      43.5%    43.6%    40.5%    -3.0%    -5.8%    40.6%
TX      38.5%    38.5%    45.3%    6.8%     4.8%     40.9%
 
Avg      Final    Initial  Late    Change    WPE      Exit
West                                                
CO       47.6%    47.3%    53.6%    6.3%     6.1%     50.7%
ID*      30.7%    30.7%    15.4%    -15.3%   1.0%     31.2%
MT*      39.5%    39.5%    37.0%    -2.5%    -1.8%    38.6%
NM       49.6%    49.4%    61.4%    11.9%    7.8%     53.5%
NV       48.7%    48.7%    50.4%    1.8%     10.1%    53.8%
                                                    
UT       26.7%    27.1%    21.4%    -5.7%    6.4%     29.9%
WY*      29.7%    29.7%    23.8%    -5.9%    4.3%     31.9%
 
Avg     Final     Initial  Late    Chg      WPE      Exit
Far West                                            
AK       36.8%    36.2%    39.0%    2.8%     9.6%     41.7%
AZ       44.7%    44.7%    44.7%    -0.1%    4.6%     47.0%
CA       55.0%    55.2%    54.4%    -0.8%    10.9%    60.6%
HI*      54.4%    54.4%    82.6%    28.3%    4.7%     56.8%
OR       52.1%    52.0%    54.6%    2.6%     0.0%     52.1%
WA       53.6%    53.5%    57.7%    4.2%     8.4%     57.9%
 
 
 
 
 
 
Calculated True Vote based on Late share + Uncounted share
 
         Late     Share    Recorded    +Unctd = True Vote    

Kerry    2.65     53.0%    64.79        2.58    67.37 53.6%
Bush     2.21     44.0%    53.80        0.79    54.59 43.4%
Other    0.15     3.0%     3.71         0.07     3.78  3.0%
 
Total    5.01     100%     122.30       3.45   125.74 100%
 
 
Calculate 2004 True Vote based on 12:22am NEP adjusted for 
a feasible returning voter mix
 
Assumptions:
Uncounted Votes                    
         Cast    Census   Uncounted
2004     2.74%    125.74   3.45
2000     4.86%    110.80   5.38
                          
Uncounted Vote share
2004              2000     
Kerry    75%      Gore     75%
Bush     23%      Bush     20%
Other    2%       Nader    5%
                          
2000 Annual Voter Mortality                         
Total    1.22%            
Gore share 50.4%          
                          
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004                          
Gore     95%              
Bush     95%              
Other    95%              
 
2000 Recorded                                       
Voted    Rec      Unctd    Cast     Deaths   Alive    
Gore     51.00    4.04     55.04    2.71     52.33    
Bush     50.46    1.08     51.53    2.47     49.07    
Other    3.96     0.27     4.23     0.21     4.02     
                                                    
Total    105.42   5.38     110.80   5.38     105.42   
                                                    
2004 Calculated                    
       Turnout  Voted   Weight   Kerry    Bush   Other
DNV       -     25.59    20.4%    57%      41%      2%
Gore     95%    49.71    39.5%    91%      8%       1%
Bush     95%    46.61    37.1%    10%      90%      0%
Other    95%    3.82      3.0%    64%      17%      19%
                                            
        100.15  125.74   100%    53.23%    45.39%   1.38%
                                 66.93     57.07    1.74 
 

								

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