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Reply #28: You have still not answered the question. The 2006 exits ARE available. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-03-09 10:44 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. You have still not answered the question. The 2006 exits ARE available.
Edited on Thu Sep-03-09 10:49 AM by WillE
Why are you so reluctant to ask the question WHY the 2008 exit
poll report has not been released?

Jonathan Simon and Bruce O'DEll at EDA and TimeForChange at
DU would like to see it.
So would TIA.

The 2006 unadjusted exit poll was released by Roper. Have you
seen it?
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/exitpolls.html

This is your reply in the TruthIsAll FAQ to a question on
Generic House polls:
M.3. Do pre-election "generic" House polls in 2006
match the initial exit poll returns?

Not really. A "generic" poll is one that asks
respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup's words)
"the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican
Party's candidate," rather than naming specific
candidates.

Is that so? Do you still believe that?
Are you aware that the unadjusted exits produced a 56.38% Dem
share?
The final 10 GENERIC poll average projected an IDENTICAL
56.38% share.

TIA's 120-pre-election Generic trend line model projected
56.43%. 
Just lucky, eh?


How did Bafumi et al do?
Are you aware of the report that the Democrats did much
better than the original recorded vote?  

2006 National Exit Poll
Unadjusted 		        Final (forced to match the vote)			
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Kerry	48.60%	93%	6%	1%	43%	92%	7%	1%
Bush	46.40%	17%	81%	2%	49%	15%	83%	2%
Other	1.00%	65%	18%	15%	4%	66%	23%	11%
DNV	4.00%	66%	16%	19%	4%	66%	32%	2%
								
TOTAL	100.00%	56.38%	41.32%	2.32%	100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%
		Margin	15.06%				6.31%	


Key model results: 
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share
 
The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies
were due to chance.
 
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x   
 
Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:

........Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem =   52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep =   38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%



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