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Reply #28: You have still not answered the question. The 2006 exits ARE available. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Sep-03-09 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #27
28. You have still not answered the question. The 2006 exits ARE available.
Edited on Thu Sep-03-09 09:49 AM by WillE
Why are you so reluctant to ask the question WHY the 2008 exit
poll report has not been released?

Jonathan Simon and Bruce O'DEll at EDA and TimeForChange at
DU would like to see it.
So would TIA.

The 2006 unadjusted exit poll was released by Roper. Have you
seen it?
http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/elections/common/exitpolls.html

This is your reply in the TruthIsAll FAQ to a question on
Generic House polls:
M.3. Do pre-election "generic" House polls in 2006
match the initial exit poll returns?

Not really. A "generic" poll is one that asks
respondents whether they would vote for (in Gallup's words)
"the Democratic Party's candidate or the Republican
Party's candidate," rather than naming specific
candidates.

Is that so? Do you still believe that?
Are you aware that the unadjusted exits produced a 56.38% Dem
share?
The final 10 GENERIC poll average projected an IDENTICAL
56.38% share.

TIA's 120-pre-election Generic trend line model projected
56.43%. 
Just lucky, eh?


How did Bafumi et al do?
Are you aware of the report that the Democrats did much
better than the original recorded vote?  

2006 National Exit Poll
Unadjusted 		        Final (forced to match the vote)			
	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other	MIX	Dem	Rep	Other
Kerry	48.60%	93%	6%	1%	43%	92%	7%	1%
Bush	46.40%	17%	81%	2%	49%	15%	83%	2%
Other	1.00%	65%	18%	15%	4%	66%	23%	11%
DNV	4.00%	66%	16%	19%	4%	66%	32%	2%
								
TOTAL	100.00%	56.38%	41.32%	2.32%	100%	52.19%	45.88%	1.93%
		Margin	15.06%				6.31%	


Key model results: 
Assuming the Democrats captured 60% of the undecided vote,
1-the 120-Generic poll trend line projected a 56.43% share
2-the Final 10 Generic poll average projected a 56.38% share
 
The probability is near ZERO that the vote/poll discrepancies
were due to chance.
 
120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend:
Dem = 46.98 + .0419x
GOP = 38.06 + .0047x   
 
Substituting x=120 and allocating 60% (UVA) to the Democrats:

........Trend + UVA = Projection
Dem =   52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
Rep =   38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%



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  -To Believe the NY 2004 recorded vote, you must also believe... WillE  Aug-31-09 12:38 PM   #0 
  - Zogby IS a lousy pollster.  Nicholas D Wolfwood   Aug-31-09 12:40 PM   #1 
  - No, he's not. nt  Captain Hilts   Sep-01-09 11:34 AM   #6 
     - He had a 5.4% error rate in 2008.  Nicholas D Wolfwood   Sep-01-09 12:02 PM   #7 
        - for Zogby Interactive polls, yes  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-01-09 12:40 PM   #9 
           - The OP is more or less positing that Zogby's beyond reproach.  Nicholas D Wolfwood   Sep-01-09 12:56 PM   #11 
              - I take your point, but actually, the OP is pretty selective  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-01-09 01:22 PM   #12 
                 - Zogby matched True vote in 2000; Rasmussen (GOP) was way off  WillE   Sep-01-09 07:38 PM   #16 
                    - LOL -- you and your "True Vote" n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-01-09 08:12 PM   #18 
  - A 2004 NY True Vote Analysis  WillE   Aug-31-09 02:10 PM   #2 
  - well to buy Ohio 2004 you have believe that W won despite:  Botany   Aug-31-09 05:55 PM   #3 
  - Amen and Amen!  Stevepol   Aug-31-09 06:49 PM   #4 
  - "As all of America goes to a paper trail, paper ballots, and early voting...".  Peace Patriot   Aug-31-09 08:29 PM   #5 
  - Spot on. n/t  Wilms   Sep-01-09 08:54 PM   #19 
  - In 08 the pukes cheated and lost anyway  Cobalt-60   Sep-03-09 04:22 AM   #26 
  - Paper ballots. Hand counted, w/ plenty of observers, AT THE PRECINCT.  kath   Sep-01-09 12:13 PM   #8 
  - ruh roh: "uniform 7% increase in...late NY PAPER BALLOT vote share"?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-01-09 12:47 PM   #10 
  - NY 2000-2008: Election Day Lever vs. Late paper ballot vs. Exit poll (update)  WillE   Sep-01-09 07:20 PM   #15 
     - are you withdrawing your argument, or not?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-01-09 08:08 PM   #17 
        - True... but the NY exit polls AND late vote shares consistently favor the Dems  WillE   Sep-01-09 10:15 PM   #21 
           - that's no answer at all  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-02-09 05:16 AM   #22 
              - I know you are at your computer, monitoring ER.  WillE   Sep-02-09 01:05 PM   #23 
                 - are you joking?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-02-09 04:39 PM   #24 
                    - Still no answer? This is not a joke. Just a simple question.  WillE   Sep-02-09 09:58 PM   #25 
                       - your attention seems to be wandering  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 06:10 AM   #27 
                          - You have still not answered the question. The 2006 exits ARE available.  WillE   Sep-03-09 09:44 AM   #28 
                             - your evasive maneuvers continue  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 11:26 AM   #29 
                                - Your lack of substantive response is a tell.  WillE   Sep-03-09 02:06 PM   #30 
                                   - MY lack of substantive response?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 02:52 PM   #31 
                                      - You really have no shame, do you?  WillE   Sep-03-09 03:25 PM   #32 
                                         - you really have no response, do you?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-03-09 03:51 PM   #33 
  - I believe your post has a lot of merit, but why are you bringing this up now?n/t  wisteria   Sep-01-09 01:55 PM   #13 
  - See this....  WillE   Sep-01-09 02:51 PM   #14 
  - Kicking it  Ellipsis   Sep-01-09 10:09 PM   #20 
 

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