You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #21: True... but the NY exit polls AND late vote shares consistently favor the Dems [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-01-09 10:15 PM
Response to Reply #17
21. True... but the NY exit polls AND late vote shares consistently favor the Dems

Let's look at the overall picture.

This is what is significant:
In each of the last three elections, the NY Democratic late vote share paper ballot share exceeded the lever share. And the Democratic exit poll share exceeded the lever share.

The 3-election average Democratic late vote share was 6.9% greater than the Lever share.
The average Democratic exit poll share was 4.6% greater than the Lever share.

The average exit poll share was within 2.3% of the average late vote share - within the MoE.

1) In 2000, Gore's exit poll share was 3.5% LOWER than the late vote share even though the WPE was 3.3. Why the 3.5% discrepancy? Either a non-equivalent late vote group and/or the exit poll low-balled Gore's True share or...?

2) In 2004, the exit poll was 0.2% higher - a virtual perfect match. The WPE was 12.2.

3) In 2008, the True Vote was 3.2% LOWER than the late vote share. Why no exact match? See (1). The 2008 exit poll report has not been released. It probably never will be.
Can you offer a reason why?

Of course, we agree that:
1) Exit polls are NOT perfect. The votes always move in favor of the Repubs. Why?
Well, start with uncounted votes and go from there.

2) LATE VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS NEVER EXACTLY MATCH ELECTION DAY VOTER DEMOGRAPHICS.

But there is a UNMISTAKABLE PATTERN THAT CANNOT BE IGNORED:
THE NY DEMOCRATIC EXIT POLL ALWAYS EXCEEDS THE RECORDED VOTE.
THE NY DEMOCRATIC LATE VOTE ALWAYS EXCEEDS THE RECORDED VOTE.

Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC