Reply #15: NY 2000-2008: Election Day Lever vs. Late paper ballot vs. Exit poll (update)

[WillE]

NY Initial (Lever) vs. Late (Paper ballot) Comparison 

Average 2.3% match of Late Paper ballots and exit polls.

Average Dem Election Day Lever vote share (60.0%)
Average Dem Late Paper vote share (66.9%)

2000 Clinton incumbent:
Low exit poll deviation from late paper vote: 2.1% (3.3 WPE} 


2004  Bush incumbent
High  exit poll deviation from late paper vote: 6.6% (12.2
WPE)

2008 Bush incumbent
High  True vote deviation from late paper vote: 5.3% (WPE na)
Calculated True Vote as exit poll proxy based on Final NEP
(exit poll report not released)  

Democratic vote shares						

	Lever	Dem	Share		Paper	Dem	Share  Exit Poll
2000	6,270	3,747	59.8%		552	361	65.4%  61.9%
2004	6,892	3,993	57.9%		499	321	64.3%  64.5%
2008	7,011	4,360	62.2%		584	412	70.7%  67.5%
							
Total	20,174	12,100	60.0%		1,635	1,094	66.9% 64.6%

					Deviation from Lever		
	Total	Official Exit		Paper	Exit	
2000	6,822	60.2%	61.9%		5.6%	2.1%	
2004	7,391	58.4%	64.5%		6.4%	6.6%	
2008	7,595	62.8%	67.5%		8.5%	5.3%	
							
Total	21,808	60.5%	64.6%		6.8%	4.7%