Reply #2: A 2004 NY True Vote Analysis

[WillE]

There is the recorded vote (the official vote).

And then there is the True Vote.
They are NEVER equal.

There are such things as uncounted votes (spoiled, absentee
and provisional).
There are stuffed ballots.
There are electronically switched votes.

And there are miscounted votes.
Some by mechanical machines.
Mostly miscounted by human programmers.
Ans also by corrupt election officials.

Let's determine the True 2004 NY vote.
Kerry won the state by 58-40% officially (the recorded vote).
But his True Vote was much higher: 64%

Why bother calculating? It was a landslide.
Who cares? It made no difference.

Well, Rove cared.
He needed to manufacture that Bush 3.0 million mandate.
He couldn't have a repeat of the 2000 selection in which Bush
lost the popular vote.

So where do you get the votes?
Where the Democrats live. In NY, CA...
The BIG BLUE states. Where no one was watching.

Like Three-card Monte.
All eyes were the battleground states.

The goal was to cut down Kerry's margin.
In NY, it was cut by 750,000 votes - from 2.2 million to 1.35
million.
In CA, it was cut by even more. Of course.
It's the BIGGEST BLUE state.

The 750,000 reduction in Kerry's NY margin provided 25% of
Bush's 3.0 million "mandate".
Mission accomplished.

Joseph Stalin once said: It's not who votes, it's who counts.

Willie Sutton, famous bank-robber, was once asked: 
Willie, why do you rob banks?

Willie replied: Because that's where the money is.
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Base Case Scenario:
It’s Kerry by 63.5-35.4%.
A 2.2 million vote landlside.

Total votes CAST in 2000 and 2004
5% Mortality.
98% Turnout.

Kerry NY share = National share + 10%

Sensitivity Analysis: 
Assume 94% Gore 2000 voter turnout; 
98% LIVING Bush 2000 voter turnout (no PHANTOMS allowed).

Kerry wins with 63.0% (2.1 million votes)

Worst Case scenario:
Kerry 89% of returning Bush voters? In NY?
Kerry 47% of New voters? In NY?

Kerry wins with 58.9% (1.45 million votes)

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New York 2004 Tuue Vote Election Calculator 			
							
2000 Recorded	 	 	2004 Recorded 	 
Gore	Bush	Other	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total
4.108	2.403	0.311	6.822	4.314	2.963	0.114	7.391
60.22%	35.22%	4.56%	 	58.37%	40.09%	1.54%	 

Uncounted			 	 			 
0.131	0.035	0.009	0.175	0.231	0.071	0.006	0.308
75%	20%	5%	2.50%	75%	23%	2%	4.00%
							
Uncounted Votes 		        Est.    NEP     NEP
	Pct	 Cast	Unctd	Kerry	NY	12:22am	Final
2004	4.00%	7.699	0.308	DNV	67%	57%	54%
2000	2.50%	6.997	0.175	Gore	92%	91%	90%
				Bush	11%	10%	9%
2004	Share	2000	Share	Nader	71%	64%	71%
Kerry	75%	Gore	75%				
Bush	23%	Bush	20%	Bush			
Other	2%	Nader	5%	DNV	31%	41%	45%
				Gore	7%	8%	10%
2000 Voter Mortality 		Bush	89%	90%	91%
Total Voters	1.25%		Nader	21%	17%	21%
Gore share	60%						
				Other			
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004	DNV	2%	2%	1%
Gore	98%			Gore	1%	1%	0%
Bush	98%			Bush	0%	0%	0%
Nader	98%			Nader	8%	19%	8%

 	 	 	 	 	 
 		2000 Recorded		
Voted	Record	Uncntd	Cast	Deaths	Alive
DNV					
Gore	4.11	0.131	4.24	0.21	4.03
Bush	2.40	0.035	2.44	0.12	2.31
 Nader	0.31	0.009	0.32	0.02	0.30
 					
Total	6.82	0.175	7.00	0.35	6.65
 	 	 	 	 	 

 	 	 	 	 	 	 
	2000		2004 Calculated 	 
 	Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	 - 	1.185	15.4%	67%	31%	2%
Gore	98%	3.949	51.3%	92%	7%	1%
Bush	98%	2.268	29.5%	11%	89%	0%
 Nader	98%	0.298	3.9%	71%	21%	8%
 						 
Total	6.51	7.699	100%	63.48%	35.39%	1.13%
 	 	 	7.70 	4.89 	2.72 	0.09 

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS				
Kerry NY Vote Share	 				

1.

Bush 2000 Turnout:98.0%	 	 	 	 	 	 

 					 
Gore% 	
Unctd		Gore Voter Turnout		 
63.5%	94.0%	95.0%	96.0%	97.0%	98.0%

 		Kerry NY Vote Share	 
85.0%	63.1%	63.3%	63.4%	63.5%	63.7%
80.0%	63.0%	63.2%	63.3%	63.4%	63.6%

75.0%	63.0%	63.1%	63.2%	63.3%	63.5%

70.0%	62.9%	63.0%	63.1%	63.3%	63.4%
65.0%	62.8%	62.9%	63.0%	63.2%	63.3%
 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 

85.0%	2.11 	2.13 	2.15 	2.17 	2.19 
80.0%	2.10 	2.12 	2.14 	2.16 	2.18 

75.0%	2.08 	2.10 	2.12 	2.14 	2.16 

70.0%	2.07 	2.09 	2.11 	2.13 	2.15 
65.0%	2.05 	2.07 	2.09 	2.11 	2.13 

2. 	 	 	 	 	 

Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters:11.0%	 

Gore voters	New voters (DNV in 2000)	 
63.5%	47.0%	57.0%	67.0%	77.0%	87.0%

                Kerry  NY Vote Share	 
93.0%	60.9%	62.5%	64.0%	65.5%	67.1%
92.0%	60.4%	61.9%	63.5%	65.0%	66.6%

91.0%	59.9%	61.4%	63.0%	64.5%	66.0%

90.0%	59.4%	60.9%	62.5%	64.0%	65.5%
89.0%	58.9%	60.4%	61.9%	63.5%	65.0%
 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 
 					 
93.0%	1.77 	2.00 	2.24 	2.48 	2.72 
92.0%	1.69 	1.93 	2.16 	2.40 	2.64 

91.0%	1.61 	1.85 	2.08 	2.32 	2.56 

90.0%	1.53 	1.77 	2.00 	2.24 	2.48 
89.0%	1.45 	1.69 	1.93 	2.16 	2.40