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To Believe the NY 2004 recorded vote, you must also believe... [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-31-09 01:38 PM
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To Believe the NY 2004 recorded vote, you must also believe...
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Edited on Mon Aug-31-09 02:19 PM by WillE
To Believe the NY 2004 Recorded Vote, you must also believe...

To believe that Bush increased his NY vote share from 35% in 2000 to 40% in 2004, you must also believe that.

1. NY exit polls were obviously off when VP Bush 1 or Bush 2 was the incumbent.
2. The uniform 7% increase in Gore, Kerry and Obama late NY PAPER BALLOT vote share (compared to the Election Day LEVER share) was just a coincidence.
3. Bush increased vote share dramatically in the 15 largest NY Democratic counties but not so much in smaller, Republican rural counties.
4. The fact that virtually all Election Day voting incidents favored Bush in NYC was just a coincidence (EIRS).
5. NY has a transparent voting system.

6. The NY Lever vote count does NOT involve the use of computer software.
7. Votes can be verified by anyone who chooses to do so at the precinct.
8. There was an effort made to verify the 2004 NY vote to determine Kerrys true margin.
9. NY Lever machine vote spoilage (0.79%) is the only possible cause of vote miscounts.
10.The average 8% Bush 1988,1992, 2004) exit poll discrepancy (WPE) was due to biased samples.

11. The average 0.6% WPE Clinton discrepancy (1996, 2000) was just a fluke.
12. Bush did not have a motive to reduce Kerrys NY margin.
13. Bush did not fire honest U.S. Republican attorneys who refused to bring bogus voter fraud cases prior to the 2004 election.
14. Bush fired U.S. attorneys who brought bogus voter fraud cases and kept those who wouldnt just before the election.
15. The exit polls were garbage - especially in NY (1988,1992 and 2004).

16. The exit polls were fairly accurate in NY (1996 and 2000).
17. Bush improved his 2004 NY (recorded) share by 5% over 2000.
18. It makes no sense to post hand-counted verifiable voting results at the precinct and upload them to the Internet for public viewing.
19. It makes makes no sense to use open source software to tabulate precinct vote data uploaded to the Internet, even though every one would be able to check that their vote was counted.
20. NY election activists should ignore ALL evidence, such as exit polls, late votes and correlation analysis of county percentage vote change and voting population size.

21. NY Dems had legitimate reasons to vote for Bush despite his 35% NY approval.
22. Non-response bias and false recall caused the 12% WPE in NY.
23. The exit poll over-sampled Kerry voters.
24. The exit poll was poorly designed, unlike the one done by the same exit pollsters (Edison/Mitofsky) in the Ukraine a few weeks later.
25. There is nothing suspicious about Kerrys 65% NY GEO exit poll (already adjusted for voter turnout) morphing to 58% in the Final.

26. It makes eminent sense to FORCE the exit poll to match the recorded vote. Richard Hayes Phillips found out why.
27. It is inconceivable that 64% of returning Nader/other voters (who comprised 5% of the 2000 electorate) defected to Kerry but only 17% to Bush.
28. Even if Kerry won the majority of 150,000 returning Nader voters and 1 million new voters by large margins, returning Gore voters defected to Bush in margins big enough to reduce Kerrys adjusted share from 64 to 58%.
29. It is of no consequence that 1 million new NY voters were 65-70% for Kerry.
30. Even if returning Bush and Gore 2000 voters defected equally nationwide, Bush had a net 8% NY advantage of defecting Gore voters over Kerrys share of defecting Bush voters.

31. Bushs 48% national and 35-40% NY approval did not keep him from improving on his 2000 NY share by 5% in 2004, even though his rating was higher in 2000.
32. It is of no consequence that 300,000 net uncounted votes were mostly for Kerry.
33. A NY 2004 True Vote sensitivity analysis based on total votes cast in 2000, mortality, turnout and a range of vote shares is not as believable as a pre-election Likely Voter (LV) poll which excludes many newly registered voters and does not consider that undecided votes broke for Kerry.
34. The fact that Gallups final projection allocated 90% of undecided voters to Kerry was of no consequence.
35. The fact that Zogby indicated right before Election Day that the late trend was towards Kerry, that undecided voters were breaking for him and that Bush was in deep doo-doo based on his sub-par approval rating was of no consequence.

36. The fact that the exit polls (1-2% MoE) were the first indicators of election fraud is no reason to accept them over pre-election polls (3-4% MoE).
37. There is no benefit in comparing the aggregate pre- election and post election polls; it is better to just cherry pick individual polls to prove that the aggregate is incorrect.
38. The fact that there had to be 5-6 million phantom Bush voters in order to match the 2004 recorded vote is of no consequence; it was merely due to respondents misreporting their 2000 past vote to the exit pollsters.
39. It makes a lot of sense to continue to try to debunk scores of mathematical and statistical analysts who have proved that the 2004 election was stolen beyond a reasonable doubt largely on the basis of exit poll analysis (on a Democratic Internet forum).
40. There is no reason to believe that naysayers still trying to debunk the stolen Kerry landslide have an agenda of anything other than to present the truth as they see it, even though they themselves may have have been debunked every time they have tried.

41. All truth seekers who present a plausible, realistic analysis using exit poll and other data should just go away.
42. There is no reason to expect that fraud of any magnitude can take place in NY because Levers had a 0.79% spoilage rate.
43. We should fight to keep the Levers but not fight for full transparency (HCPB).
44. There is no way that NY elections can or should be hand-counted, even if they are restricted to presidential and congressional races.
45. There is nothing suspicious in the fact that the 2008 exit poll report will apparently never be released by the MSM (National Exit Pool).

46. The confidentiality of exit poll respondents must be maintained, even though precinct data can and has been released (Ohio 2004) without revealing any personal information.
47. Election Fraud may have occurred in 2004, but not enough to negate Bushs mandate.
48. Pre-election Generic polls were not useful for projecting vote share in the 2006 midterms, even if the trend-line through 120 polls projected a 56.4% Democratic share that EXACTLY matched the unadjusted 56.4% exit poll.
49. Rasmussen is an unbiased pollster. He matched the recorded 2004 vote.
50. Zogby is a lousy pollster. He matched the True Vote that was far from the recorded vote.
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