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Reply #5: Ok, there's a known problem with this line of analysis [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 11:39 AM
Response to Reply #4
5. Ok, there's a known problem with this line of analysis
We can't really "start with the breakdown of the 2004 presidential vote" unless we also assume that exit poll respondents in general accurately report who they voted for four years earlier. And what the history of exit polling (and other polling, for that matter) actually demonstrates is that respondents as a whole tend disproportionately to report having voted for whoever won four years ago -- whether the winner was Democratic or Republican, whether the winner was popular or unpopular (although that may influence the magnitude of the overstatement). Even Nixon got a bump. The evidence is summarized in Table 3 here, and elsewhere in the paper.

TIA has never been willing to take these facts into account in his analysis, so he's pretty much nowhere, as far as I can tell.
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  -When will the MSM release the 2008 Exit Poll Report? (TIA) - x tiptoe  Jul-30-09 01:02 AM   #0 
  - "THOSE IN POWER" WILL NOT LET YOU SEE THE TRUTH  HowHasItComeToThis   Jul-30-09 01:15 AM   #1 
  - what evidence do you have in mind?  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-30-09 07:49 AM   #3 
  - Here is a link for the likely source of the statement  starroute   Jul-30-09 11:10 AM   #4 
     - Ok, there's a known problem with this line of analysis  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-30-09 11:39 AM   #5 
        - This refutes False Recall  WillE   Aug-04-09 02:43 PM   #39 
           - not so much, but thanks for the fresh fish bait, or whatever  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-04-09 03:07 PM   #40 
              - So which is it? Slow-drifting fog? Mere forgetfulness? Retrospective bandwagon?  WillE   Aug-04-09 04:08 PM   #41 
                 - which time did the NES respondents tell the truth?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-04-09 04:13 PM   #42 
  - Yes,  Kurovski   Jul-30-09 03:21 PM   #6 
     - So what if it is? Or if it's just a hobby? Or an Army of posters using the same name?  Wilms   Jul-31-09 12:26 AM   #9 
     - Jesus saves,  Kurovski   Jul-31-09 07:09 PM   #10 
        - Then why do you fancy yourself a reformer and truth seeker?  Wilms   Jul-31-09 09:25 PM   #11 
           - God created the Heavens and the Earth.  Kurovski   Aug-01-09 06:02 PM   #12 
              - Ah. TIA created the Heavens and the Earth.  Wilms   Aug-01-09 06:35 PM   #13 
                 - With God all things are possible.  Kurovski   Aug-01-09 06:36 PM   #14 
                    - Exit poll true believers are his rath.  Wilms   Aug-01-09 06:54 PM   #15 
                       - Ramen. n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-01-09 08:12 PM   #16 
                       - 'Tis the gift to be simpul,  Kurovski   Aug-02-09 12:53 PM   #17 
                       - thz olde ur ban mith?  Kurovski   Aug-02-09 01:16 PM   #18 
                          - conveniently debunked in that very thread  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-02-09 05:08 PM   #21 
                             - 42 posts out of the 262  Wilms   Aug-02-09 05:22 PM   #22 
                                - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:40 PM   #24 
                                   - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:40 PM   #25 
                                      - Clop  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:40 PM   #26 
                                         - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:41 PM   #27 
                                            - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:41 PM   #28 
                                               - Clop  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:41 PM   #29 
                                                  - Tic  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:42 PM   #30 
                                                  - Toc  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:42 PM   #31 
                                                  - Tic  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:42 PM   #32 
                                                  - Toc  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:42 PM   #33 
                                                  - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:43 PM   #34 
                                                  - Clippity  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:43 PM   #35 
                                                  - Clop.  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:43 PM   #36 
     - I'm damn glad OnTheOtherHand contributes so much in that bit of time  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-02-09 01:32 PM   #19 
        - I don't  Kurovski   Aug-02-09 03:13 PM   #20 
           - Bless you  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-02-09 08:19 PM   #23 
              - & God Bless the Google.  Kurovski   Aug-03-09 05:45 PM   #37 
                 - The Church of Google?  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-03-09 09:13 PM   #38 
  - K & R  lib_wit_it   Jul-30-09 04:57 AM   #2 
  - K&R  Stevepol   Jul-30-09 05:18 PM   #7 
  - like Iran's election, without transparency  WillYourVoteBCounted   Jul-30-09 11:26 PM   #8 
  - When hell freezes over...  WillE   Sep-24-09 08:23 PM   #43 
     - What if you're mostly full of hot air and complicating election reform efforts?  Wilms   Sep-24-09 09:52 PM   #44 
        - You are looning by ignoring the elections of 2006 and 2008  WillE   Sep-24-09 10:35 PM   #45 
           - The MSM has been called out. Everyone here knows the voting system is a wreck.  Wilms   Sep-24-09 11:45 PM   #46 

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