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Reply #4: Here is a link for the likely source of the statement [View All]

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starroute Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jul-30-09 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. Here is a link for the likely source of the statement
The analysis is complex and based on a lot of hypotheticals and I don't vouch for it.

However, the main point seems to be that if you start with the breakdown of the 2004 presidential vote and then factor in Obama's overwhelming advantage among newly registered voters, the reported totals for 2008 don't add up. Either many 2004 Kerry voters would have had to vote for McCain or many of the enthusiastic Obama supporters who registered to vote for the first time must have decided not to vote after all.

It also suggests that if you assume the 2004 election was stolen and Kerry actually won by several percentage points, then the calculation for 2008 (returning 2004 Kerry voters plus new Obama voters) would be even higher yet.


http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/2008ElectionAnal...

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