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Reply #145: CORRECTION TO LATE NY PAPER VOTES; EXIT POLL COMPARISONS [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Sep-01-09 07:12 PM
Response to Reply #7
145. CORRECTION TO LATE NY PAPER VOTES; EXIT POLL COMPARISONS
NY Initial (Lever) vs. Late (Paper ballot) Comparison 

Average Dem Election Day Lever vote share (60.0%)
Average Dem Late Paper vote share (66.9%)

2000 small exit poll deviation from late vote: 2.1% (3.3 WPE}
 
2004 high exit poll deviation from late vote: 6.6% (12.2 WPE)

2008 Calculated True Vote as exit poll proxy based on Final
NEP 
(exit poll report not released)  

Democratic vote shares						

	Lever	Dem	Share		Paper	Dem	Share
2000	6,270	3,747	59.8%		552	361	65.4%
2004	6,892	3,993	57.9%		499	321	64.3%
2008	7,011	4,360	62.2%		584	412	70.7%
							
Total	20,174	12,100	60.0%		1,635	1,094	66.9%

					Deviation from Lever		
	Total	Official Exit		Paper	Exit	
2000	6,822	60.2%	61.9%		5.6%	2.1%	
2004	7,391	58.4%	64.5%		6.4%	6.6%	
2008	7,595	62.8%	67.5%		8.5%	5.3%	
							
Total	21,808	60.5%	64.6%		6.8%	4.7%	

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