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Reply #123: I don't CARE what the polls say. They are just polls -- not voting systems. [View All]

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Bill Bored Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-30-09 10:17 PM
Response to Reply #121
123. I don't CARE what the polls say. They are just polls -- not voting systems.
Edited on Sun Aug-30-09 10:43 PM by Bill Bored
There's no way to hack the NY voting system to produce an 8% average vote shift in every election district (precinct) in the state. So yes, the polls were wrong if that's what they say. If the shift was greater in 2004, then the polls were even more wrong in 2004. However, on edit, I see that WPE is margin error so:

Since you won't answer the question of how many lever machines had to be hacked, I'll do it for you:

To get an 6% vote shift on 20,000 machines, you could hack:
1,200 machines with 100% vote shifts, or
2,400 machines with 50% vote shifts, or
4,800 machines with 25% vote shifts, or
9,600 machines with 12.5% vote shifts, or
all 20,000 machines with an 6% vote shift on every machine.

If you use undervotes instead of vote shifts, because vote switching on lever machines during elections is physically IMPOSSIBLE (and the machines are canvassed immediately after the polls close), then you have to double the numbers of machines above to account for an 6% vote shift. That means you'd have to have a 12% undervote rate at the top of the ticket on ALL 20,000 machines. Kind of like Sarasota County, FL, CD-13 2006 on steroids (a statewide undervote rate of 12% for President, almost as high as for CD-13 in a single county in FLORIDA)! Unfortunately (for you) the undervote rate was only 0.77% in 2004 -- not 12% -- which I think even included paper absentee ballots, although they accounted for only a few % of the vote.

Keep it up and you'll do more damage to your exit poll theory than OnTheOtherHand!

Maybe you're not TIA, and rather just an anti-exit-poll infiltrator! Anyone who'd claim these polls are more accurate than lever voting machines is no friend to exit-poll believers. In fact, you're making them look like they're out of their minds!
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