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Reply #98: The analysis that you won't do proves you dead wrong once again. Your move... [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-29-09 09:19 AM
Response to Reply #96
98. The analysis that you won't do proves you dead wrong once again. Your move...
OTOH, 
THIS is how you SHOULD do a logical True vote analysis.
But you never do it. Because it undermines your case.

You resorted to simplistic, cherry-picking when you
challenged me to 
explain the "divergence" between the PA
pre-election and the exit polls.

But as usual, you are hoisted on your own petard.
The analysis you never do proves you dead wrong once again.

The 2004 PA pre-election poll PROJECTION (adjusted for
undecided voters) 
MATCHED the exit polls which MATCHED the True Vote. 

When have you ever been right about anything?
_______________________________________________________________________________

2004 PA Projection and Post-election True Vote model vs. the
exit polls

Kerrys projected share: 55.0% 
GEO exit poll share: 56.9%
Post-election True Vote: 55.3%


Project the True Vote using the latest polling data
1) Start with the LV pre-election polls (50-45% in favor of
Kerry)
2) Add 2% to Kerrys share because of heavy NEW RV turnout
(52-43%)
3) Allocate 75% of undecided voters to Kerry.
4) Calculate the projection: 55-44%

Calculate the True Vote using Post-election data
Base Case Scenario
1. Input recorded and total votes cast for 2000 and 2004
2. Allocate uncounted votes (75% Dem; 25% Repub)
3. Enter the mortality rate (1.22%)
4. Enter an estimated turnout percentage of LIVING 2000
election voters (no phantoms allowed)
5. Enter NEP vote shares adjusted using the state/national
recorded share ratio
6.	Understand that since the above are base case estimates,
also run a sensitivity analysis. 
7.	Calculate the base case True Vote:  55.3-44.1%

The True Vote models were ALL within the 2% MoE of each Exit
Poll.

The exit polls:
WPE/IMS:   55.1-44.2 within 0.1% of the 55-44% projection
GEO:       56.9-43.1 within 1.4% 
Composite: 54.2-45.7 within 0.8% 

True Vote Models
Pre-elect: 55.0-44.0   within 1.9% of GEO
Post-elect:55.3-44.1 within 1.6% of GEO

Post-election Sensitivity Analysis:
1:Gore voter turnout vs. uncounted share 
Worst case: Kerry 54.7%
Turnout: Gore 91%; Bush 95% 
Gore 65% of uncounted

2. Kerry share of Gore voters vs. share of New voters
Worst Case: Kerry 52.8%
Kerry 88% share of Gore; 56% share of New


Pennsylvania 2004 True Vote Election Calculator 		
							
2000 Recorded	 	 	2004 Recorded 	 
Gore	Bush	Other	Total	Kerry	Bush	Other	Total
2.485	2.281	0.120	4.886	2.938	2.793	0.034	5.765
50.9%	46.7%	2.5%	- 	50.9%	48.4%	0.6%	 

Uncounted			 	 			 
0.045	0.013	0.002	0.059	0.057	0.019	0.000	0.075
75%	22%	3%	1.20%	75%	25%	0%	1.29%
							
Uncounted Votes 	 	12:22am	Final
	Pct	 Cast	Unctd	Kerry	Est.	NEP	NEP
2004	1.29%	5.840	0.075	DNV	60%	57%	54%
2000	1.20%	4.945	0.059	Gore	92%	91%	90%
				Bush	11%	10%	9%
2004	Share	2000	Share	Nader	67%	64%	71%
Kerry	75%	Gore	75%				
Bush	25%	Bush	22%	Bush			
Other	0%	Nader	3%	DNV	39%	41%	45%
				Gore	8%	8%	10%
2000 Voter Mortality 		Bush	89%	90%	91%
Total Voters	1.22%		Nader	16%	17%	21%
Gore share	50%						
				Other			
2000 Voter Turnout in 2004	DNV	1%	2%	1%
Gore	95%			Gore	0%	1%	0%
Bush	95%			Bush	0%	0%	0%
Nader	95%			Nader	17%	19%	8%

 	 	 	 	 	 
2000 Recorded		
Voted	Record	Uncount	Cast	Deaths	Alive
DNV					
Gore	2.49	0.04	2.53	0.12	2.41
Bush	2.28	0.01	2.29	0.11	2.18
Nader	0.12	0.00	0.12	0.01	0.12
 					
Total	4.89	0.06	4.95	0.24	4.70
 	 	 	 	 	 

 	 	 	 	 	 	 
2004 Calculated 	 
Voted	Turnout	Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	 - 	1.37	23.5%	60%	39%	1%
Gore	95%	2.29	39.2%	92%	8%	0%
Bush	95%	2.07	35.4%	11%	89%	0%
Nader	95%	0.11	1.9%	67%	16%	17%
 						 
Share	4.47	5.84	100%	55.30%	44.14%	0.56%
Vote 	 	 	5.84 	3.23 	2.58 	0.03 

 	   2004 Calculated
 	Kerry	Bush	Other
Cast	3.230	2.578	0.032
Share	55.30%	44.14%	0.56%
ExitP	55.30%	44.00%	0.70%


Sensitivity Analysis 1

Bush 2000 LIVING Voter Turnout: 95.0%	  	 	 	 	 	 
 					 
Gore%  	
Unctd		Gore Voter Turnout		 
55.3%	91.0%	93.0%	95.0%	97.0%	99.0%

 		Kerry Vote Share	 

85.0%	54.8%	55.1%	55.4%	55.6%	55.9%
80.0%	54.8%	55.1%	55.3%	55.6%	55.9%
75.0%	54.8%	55.0%	55.3%	55.6%	55.8%
70.0%	54.7%	55.0%	55.3%	55.5%	55.8%
65.0%	54.7%	55.0%	55.2%	55.5%	55.8%
 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 
 					 
85.0%	0.60 	0.63 	0.66 	0.69 	0.72 
80.0%	0.59 	0.62 	0.66 	0.69 	0.72 
75.0%	0.59 	0.62 	0.65 	0.68 	0.71 
70.0%	0.58 	0.62 	0.65 	0.68 	0.71 
65.0%	0.58 	0.61 	0.64 	0.67 	0.70 

Sensitivity Analysis 2

Kerry share of Bush 2000 voters: 11.0%	  	 	 	 	 	 
 					 
Kerry%	
Gore 	 Kerry % of New voters (DNV in 2000)	 
55.3%	56.0%	58.0%	60.0%	62.0%	64.0%

 		Kerry Vote Share	 

96.0%	55.9%	56.4%	56.9%	57.3%	57.8%
94.0%	55.1%	55.6%	56.1%	56.6%	57.0%
92.0%	54.4%	54.8%	55.3%	55.8%	56.2%
90.0%	53.6%	54.0%	54.5%	55.0%	55.5%
88.0%	52.8%	53.3%	53.7%	54.2%	54.7%
 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 
 					 
96.0%	0.72 	0.78 	0.83 	0.89 	0.94 
94.0%	0.63 	0.69 	0.74 	0.80 	0.85 
92.0%	0.54 	0.60 	0.65 	0.71 	0.76 
90.0%	0.45 	0.51 	0.56 	0.61 	0.67 
88.0%	0.36 	0.41 	0.47 	0.52 	0.58 

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