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Reply #89: Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-27-09 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #88
89. Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.
Edited on Thu Aug-27-09 06:46 PM by WillE
Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.

You should just leave well enough alone.
How do you see through all that blood?

1) You cherry picked the PA GEO 13.8% exit poll margin.
You do this all the time. Its getting quite tiresome. I
always look at the big picture.
You always ignore the composite aggregate vote share (i.e.
the Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorem).

You are King of the cherry-pickers and reigning champ of the
nit-pickers.

Your apparent lack of any analytical acumen is frightening.
And you have the gonads to go up against all those election
activists with doctorates and masters degrees on math..

Your alma mater should take back half of your Poly Sci degree
 the Science half.
You should be left with just a degree in Politics. A Phi Beta
Kappa.

2) Compare the Unadjusted exit poll  methods:
WPE  Margin 
 IMS  10.9
 DSS  13.5
 VNS 11.3

Ok, still big But the 12:40am Composite had Kerry  ahead by
54.1-45.4%, an 8.7% margin. 
Why didnt you pick that one?

3) But wait, you wanted to see the PA pre-elects. Check the
trend:
Date	Kerry	Bush
Sept 7   46 	47
Oct 7	 52 	46
Nov 1	 50 	45  (4 undecided)

After allocating 75% of the undecided vote for Kerry 
(remember Gallup gave him 90%),
he leads PA by 53-46, within 1.5% of the Composite.

4) But these were LV polls. As RV subsets they missed the 22
million new voters.
So give Kerry another 1-2% and hes at 54-55%.

The pre-elects, properly adjusted, matched the exit polls.

See what happens when you ANALYZE.
Try it sometime. You may like it. 
And then you can go back for the Science half of your degree.



http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PreElectionConfirmation.htm

State Pre-election Polling Trend
 
The Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation forecast was
updated during the four months leading up to the election as
new state polling data was introduced. The projections below
assume that Kerry, running against the unpopular Bush, would
win 60-75% of undecided voters (UVA). 
 
                                       7-Sep          7-Oct  
        1-Nov Final      
                                   Kerry   Bush     Kerry  
Bush      Kerry   Bush
Before UVA:
Unweighted Average                 43.94   47.65    46.84  
46.86     45.70   47.60  
Weighted Average                   45.54   46.45    47.97  
46.66     47.88   46.89                   
 
Projection (75% UVA): 
2-party vote                       51.54   48.46    51.99  
48.01     51.80   48.20
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.79   48.21    51.24  
47.76     51.05   47.95
 
Projection (60% UVA): 
2-party vote                       50.71   49.29    51.10  
48.90     51.02   48.98
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.21   48.79    50.60  
48.40     50.52   48.48
 
 
State    Date    Pollster         Kerry    Bush     Kerry   
Bush     Kerry    Bush
 
AL       Oct 27   Survey USA       34       54       40      
56       39       57
AK       Sep 11   ARG              33       56       39      
55       30       57
AZ       Oct 26   Rasmussen        42       45       47      
50       45       50
AR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      47       48       47      
47       48       48
CA       Oct 27   Field Poll       50       42       51      
43       49       42
 
CO       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       49      
48       47       48
CT       Oct 28   Research 2000    45       38       47      
38       52       42
DE       Sep 25   W Chester U      55       42       45      
38       45       38
DC       Sep 13   ARG              86       9        78      
11       78       11
FL       Oct 30   Zogby            44       48       50      
48       50       47
 
GA       Oct 29   Zogby            38       55       42      
53       42       52
HI       Oct 20   SMS Res          48       41       51      
41       45       45
ID       Sep 10   ARG              25       55       30      
59       30       59
IL       Oct 29   Survey USA       52       38       55      
38       54       42
IN       Oct 29   Survey USA       40       52       40      
53       39       58
 
IA       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       51      
44       50       44
KS       Oct 27   Survey USA       36       56       35      
57       37       60
KY       Oct 20   Bluegrass        39       56       38      
53       39       56
LA       Oct 22   SE LA U          36       52       42      
50       40       48
ME       Oct 21   Zogby            49       44       42      
39       50       39
 
MD       Oct 29   Survey USA       53       42       48      
45       54       43
MA       Oct  5   Merrimack        56       30       64      
27       64       27
MI       Oct 30   Zogby            48       44       52      
42       52       45
MN       Oct 30   Zogby            46       46       53      
44       52       44
MS       Sep 17   ARG              30       61       42      
51       42       51
 
MO       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      45       49       49      
50       44       49
MT       Oct 20   Mason-Dixon      33       53       36      
54       36       57
NE       Oct 20   RKM Research     33       62       30      
61       32       61
NV       Oct 29   Survey USA       48       46       48      
47       49       49
NH       Oct 30   ARG              51       43       51      
44       47       47
 
NJ       Oct 29   Survey USA       50       46       50      
45       50       42
NM       Oct 30   ARG              42       45       55      
43       49       49
NY       Oct 28   Survey USA       56       37       53      
41       57       39
NC       Oct 26   Mason-Dixon      45       51       47      
50       47       50
ND       Oct 19   Minn St U        33       61       33      
62       35       55
 
OH       Oct 30   Zogby            42       48       48      
47       50       47
OK       Oct 24   Wilson Res       38       57       29      
52       28       61
OR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      54       43       55      
44       50       44
PA       Oct 30   Zogby            46       47       52      
46       50       45
RI       Oct 27   Survey USA       49       25       55      
37       56       36
 
SC       Oct 24   Survey USA       42       53       37      
55       42       55
SD       Oct 24   McLaughlin       40       54       40      
52       42       52
TN       Oct 21   Mason-Dixon      50       48       48      
50       48       50
TX       Oct 28   Survey USA       33       57       37      
58       37       59
UT       Oct 28   Dan Jones        22       67       27      
64       24       69
 
VT       Oct 12   Research2k       51       36       50      
40       53       40
VA       Oct 29   Survey USA       45       49       47      
50       47       51
WA       Oct 27   Strat Vision     48       43       54      
44       52       44
WV       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      42       49       44      
50       46       49
WI       Oct 30   Zogby            49       45       51      
48       51       44
WY       Sep 11   ARG              28       68       29      
65       29       65
 
___________________________________________________________________
 
 
Weekly Average State Polling Trend
 
Although Bush led in the unweighted average, Kerry led the
weighted average trend (based on the 1992-2000 average state
vote) from July to Election Day, except for the first two
weeks in September. The projections assume Kerry would win
75% of the undecided vote.
 
Poll      Unweighted       Weighted            2-party       
 Projected         
Date     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush   
 Kerry    Bush
2-Jul    43.5     46.5     45.4     44.6     50.5     49.5   
 52.2     46.8
10-Jul   43.8     46.7     45.8     44.9     50.5     49.5   
 52.0     47.0
17-Jul   44.5     46.5     46.5     44.3     51.2     48.8   
 52.6     46.4
24-Jul   44.2     46.1     45.6     43.6     51.1     48.9   
 52.9     46.1
 
2-Aug    44.4     46.5     46.3     44.6     50.9     49.1   
 52.3     46.7
10-Aug   44.3     46.4     46.4     44.3     51.2     48.8   
 52.7     46.3
18-Aug   44.1     46.4     46.2     44.3     51.0     49.0   
 52.6     46.4
26-Aug   45.2     47.5     47.2     46.6     50.3     49.7   
 51.1     47.9
 
7-Sep    43.9     47.6     45.5     46.5     49.5     50.5   
 50.8     48.2
14-Sep   43.7     48.4     45.6     47.3     49.1     50.9   
 50.2     48.8
22-Sep   45.0     48.7     47.3     47.1     50.1     49.9   
 50.8     48.2
29-Sep   44.1     47.6     46.0     45.5     50.3     49.7   
 51.7     47.3
 
7-Oct    45.7     47.6     47.9     46.7     50.7     49.3   
 51.2     47.8
14-Oct   45.4     47.9     47.3     46.7     50.3     49.7   
 51.0     48.0
21-Oct   46.0     48.1     48.4     46.4     51.1     48.9   
 51.5     47.5
28-Oct   45.4     47.4     47.1     45.9     50.7     49.3   
 51.6     47.4
 
1-Nov    45.55    48.28    47.88    46.89    50.52    49.48  
 51.05    47.95
 
___________________________________________________________________
 
 
Battleground Polls
 
Final pre-election Zogby polls for nine battleground states
were included in the Election Model Monte Carlo simulation
forecast.  
Kerry was leading in 8 of the 9 states by an average of
50.2-44.8%.  The base case assumption was that he would
capture 75% 
of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by a
53.7-45.9% margin.  The conservative assumption was that he
would capture 
55% UVA and win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.  He won just 4 by
50.1- 49.4%.  The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states, 
a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.
 
                           75% UVA            55% UVA        
                         
Zogby   Oct. 31 Poll       Projection       Projection       
Recorded          75% UVA    
State    Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush   
 Kerry    Bush     Dev      Prob
 
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     49.4     50.0   
 47.4     52.1     2.97     3.27%
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     51.4     48.2   
 47.3     52.3     4.65     0.20%                             
 
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     53.1     46.5   
 49.5     50.1     4.73     0.17%
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.6     43.6   
 54.1     45.1     3.54     1.42%                             
                                                              

 
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     53.4     46.1   
 51.5     48.0     2.40     6.83% 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     53.8     45.5   
 51.5     47.9     3.08     2.82%                             
 
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     51.7     48.4   
 48.9     51.1     3.30     2.03%
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     52.8     47.3   
 51.3     48.7     2.48     6.18%
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     53.5     46.0   
 49.9     49.6     4.43     0.30%
                                                             
                                           
Mean     50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     52.7     46.8   
 50.1     49.5     3.51     2.58%
 
 
Probability of average deviation (in parenthesis):
 
Sample   MoE             75% UVA (3.51%)      55% UVA (2.58%)

1000     3.16%            1 in 68             1 in 19  
6000     1.29%            1 in 20 million     1 in 25
thousand                          
9000     1.05%            1 in 30 billion     1 in 1.5
million        

 
Comparison of Zogby Battleground Pre-election polls and
Unadjusted exit polls
 The 9-poll projection average was within 0.5% of the exit
poll average. 
 
Average of 9 Battleground states
Poll       Kerry   Bush
Zogby      50.2   44.8 (final pre-election polls)
Projection 53.7   45.9 (75% undecided to Kerry) 
Exit (WPE) 53.2   45.8
 
         
         Zogby Poll         Projection      Exit Poll        
   Recorded      
St       Kerry Bush        Kerry   Bush     Kerry Bush       
  Kerry Bush    
                                                             
        
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     50.1    48.6    
   47.4   52.1    
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     50.9     48.3   
    47.3   52.3    
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     50.7     48.4   
    49.5   50.1    
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.5     42.7   
    54.1   45.1    
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     54.4     44.7   
    51.5   48.0    
 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     55.7     43.0   
    51.5   47.9    
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     54.2     45.4   
    48.9   51.1    
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     55.3     44.0   
    51.3   48.7    
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     52.0     47.0   
    49.9   49.6    
                                                             
                         
Average  50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     53.2     45.8   
    50.1   49.5    
 
_


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