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Reply #89: Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-27-09 06:45 PM
Response to Reply #88
89. Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.
Edited on Thu Aug-27-09 06:46 PM by WillE
Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.

You should just leave well enough alone.
How do you see through all that blood?

1) You cherry picked the PA GEO 13.8% exit poll margin.
You do this all the time. Its getting quite tiresome. I
always look at the big picture.
You always ignore the composite aggregate vote share (i.e.
the Law of Large Numbers and Central Limit Theorem).

You are King of the cherry-pickers and reigning champ of the
nit-pickers.

Your apparent lack of any analytical acumen is frightening.
And you have the gonads to go up against all those election
activists with doctorates and masters degrees on math..

Your alma mater should take back half of your Poly Sci degree
 the Science half.
You should be left with just a degree in Politics. A Phi Beta
Kappa.

2) Compare the Unadjusted exit poll  methods:
WPE  Margin 
 IMS  10.9
 DSS  13.5
 VNS 11.3

Ok, still big But the 12:40am Composite had Kerry  ahead by
54.1-45.4%, an 8.7% margin. 
Why didnt you pick that one?

3) But wait, you wanted to see the PA pre-elects. Check the
trend:
Date	Kerry	Bush
Sept 7   46 	47
Oct 7	 52 	46
Nov 1	 50 	45  (4 undecided)

After allocating 75% of the undecided vote for Kerry 
(remember Gallup gave him 90%),
he leads PA by 53-46, within 1.5% of the Composite.

4) But these were LV polls. As RV subsets they missed the 22
million new voters.
So give Kerry another 1-2% and hes at 54-55%.

The pre-elects, properly adjusted, matched the exit polls.

See what happens when you ANALYZE.
Try it sometime. You may like it. 
And then you can go back for the Science half of your degree.



http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/PreElectionConfirmation.htm

State Pre-election Polling Trend
 
The Election Model Monte Carlo Simulation forecast was
updated during the four months leading up to the election as
new state polling data was introduced. The projections below
assume that Kerry, running against the unpopular Bush, would
win 60-75% of undecided voters (UVA). 
 
                                       7-Sep          7-Oct  
        1-Nov Final      
                                   Kerry   Bush     Kerry  
Bush      Kerry   Bush
Before UVA:
Unweighted Average                 43.94   47.65    46.84  
46.86     45.70   47.60  
Weighted Average                   45.54   46.45    47.97  
46.66     47.88   46.89                   
 
Projection (75% UVA): 
2-party vote                       51.54   48.46    51.99  
48.01     51.80   48.20
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.79   48.21    51.24  
47.76     51.05   47.95
 
Projection (60% UVA): 
2-party vote                       50.71   49.29    51.10  
48.90     51.02   48.98
Total vote (Other: 1%)             50.21   48.79    50.60  
48.40     50.52   48.48
 
 
State    Date    Pollster         Kerry    Bush     Kerry   
Bush     Kerry    Bush
 
AL       Oct 27   Survey USA       34       54       40      
56       39       57
AK       Sep 11   ARG              33       56       39      
55       30       57
AZ       Oct 26   Rasmussen        42       45       47      
50       45       50
AR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      47       48       47      
47       48       48
CA       Oct 27   Field Poll       50       42       51      
43       49       42
 
CO       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       49      
48       47       48
CT       Oct 28   Research 2000    45       38       47      
38       52       42
DE       Sep 25   W Chester U      55       42       45      
38       45       38
DC       Sep 13   ARG              86       9        78      
11       78       11
FL       Oct 30   Zogby            44       48       50      
48       50       47
 
GA       Oct 29   Zogby            38       55       42      
53       42       52
HI       Oct 20   SMS Res          48       41       51      
41       45       45
ID       Sep 10   ARG              25       55       30      
59       30       59
IL       Oct 29   Survey USA       52       38       55      
38       54       42
IN       Oct 29   Survey USA       40       52       40      
53       39       58
 
IA       Oct 30   Zogby            47       47       51      
44       50       44
KS       Oct 27   Survey USA       36       56       35      
57       37       60
KY       Oct 20   Bluegrass        39       56       38      
53       39       56
LA       Oct 22   SE LA U          36       52       42      
50       40       48
ME       Oct 21   Zogby            49       44       42      
39       50       39
 
MD       Oct 29   Survey USA       53       42       48      
45       54       43
MA       Oct  5   Merrimack        56       30       64      
27       64       27
MI       Oct 30   Zogby            48       44       52      
42       52       45
MN       Oct 30   Zogby            46       46       53      
44       52       44
MS       Sep 17   ARG              30       61       42      
51       42       51
 
MO       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      45       49       49      
50       44       49
MT       Oct 20   Mason-Dixon      33       53       36      
54       36       57
NE       Oct 20   RKM Research     33       62       30      
61       32       61
NV       Oct 29   Survey USA       48       46       48      
47       49       49
NH       Oct 30   ARG              51       43       51      
44       47       47
 
NJ       Oct 29   Survey USA       50       46       50      
45       50       42
NM       Oct 30   ARG              42       45       55      
43       49       49
NY       Oct 28   Survey USA       56       37       53      
41       57       39
NC       Oct 26   Mason-Dixon      45       51       47      
50       47       50
ND       Oct 19   Minn St U        33       61       33      
62       35       55
 
OH       Oct 30   Zogby            42       48       48      
47       50       47
OK       Oct 24   Wilson Res       38       57       29      
52       28       61
OR       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      54       43       55      
44       50       44
PA       Oct 30   Zogby            46       47       52      
46       50       45
RI       Oct 27   Survey USA       49       25       55      
37       56       36
 
SC       Oct 24   Survey USA       42       53       37      
55       42       55
SD       Oct 24   McLaughlin       40       54       40      
52       42       52
TN       Oct 21   Mason-Dixon      50       48       48      
50       48       50
TX       Oct 28   Survey USA       33       57       37      
58       37       59
UT       Oct 28   Dan Jones        22       67       27      
64       24       69
 
VT       Oct 12   Research2k       51       36       50      
40       53       40
VA       Oct 29   Survey USA       45       49       47      
50       47       51
WA       Oct 27   Strat Vision     48       43       54      
44       52       44
WV       Oct 29   Mason-Dixon      42       49       44      
50       46       49
WI       Oct 30   Zogby            49       45       51      
48       51       44
WY       Sep 11   ARG              28       68       29      
65       29       65
 
___________________________________________________________________
 
 
Weekly Average State Polling Trend
 
Although Bush led in the unweighted average, Kerry led the
weighted average trend (based on the 1992-2000 average state
vote) from July to Election Day, except for the first two
weeks in September. The projections assume Kerry would win
75% of the undecided vote.
 
Poll      Unweighted       Weighted            2-party       
 Projected         
Date     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush   
 Kerry    Bush
2-Jul    43.5     46.5     45.4     44.6     50.5     49.5   
 52.2     46.8
10-Jul   43.8     46.7     45.8     44.9     50.5     49.5   
 52.0     47.0
17-Jul   44.5     46.5     46.5     44.3     51.2     48.8   
 52.6     46.4
24-Jul   44.2     46.1     45.6     43.6     51.1     48.9   
 52.9     46.1
 
2-Aug    44.4     46.5     46.3     44.6     50.9     49.1   
 52.3     46.7
10-Aug   44.3     46.4     46.4     44.3     51.2     48.8   
 52.7     46.3
18-Aug   44.1     46.4     46.2     44.3     51.0     49.0   
 52.6     46.4
26-Aug   45.2     47.5     47.2     46.6     50.3     49.7   
 51.1     47.9
 
7-Sep    43.9     47.6     45.5     46.5     49.5     50.5   
 50.8     48.2
14-Sep   43.7     48.4     45.6     47.3     49.1     50.9   
 50.2     48.8
22-Sep   45.0     48.7     47.3     47.1     50.1     49.9   
 50.8     48.2
29-Sep   44.1     47.6     46.0     45.5     50.3     49.7   
 51.7     47.3
 
7-Oct    45.7     47.6     47.9     46.7     50.7     49.3   
 51.2     47.8
14-Oct   45.4     47.9     47.3     46.7     50.3     49.7   
 51.0     48.0
21-Oct   46.0     48.1     48.4     46.4     51.1     48.9   
 51.5     47.5
28-Oct   45.4     47.4     47.1     45.9     50.7     49.3   
 51.6     47.4
 
1-Nov    45.55    48.28    47.88    46.89    50.52    49.48  
 51.05    47.95
 
___________________________________________________________________
 
 
Battleground Polls
 
Final pre-election Zogby polls for nine battleground states
were included in the Election Model Monte Carlo simulation
forecast.  
Kerry was leading in 8 of the 9 states by an average of
50.2-44.8%.  The base case assumption was that he would
capture 75% 
of the undecided (UVA) vote and win all 9 states by a
53.7-45.9% margin.  The conservative assumption was that he
would capture 
55% UVA and win 8 states by 52.7-46.8%.  He won just 4 by
50.1- 49.4%.  The margin of error was exceeded in 7 states, 
a 1 in 4.7 billion probability.
 
                           75% UVA            55% UVA        
                         
Zogby   Oct. 31 Poll       Projection       Projection       
Recorded          75% UVA    
State    Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush     Kerry    Bush   
 Kerry    Bush     Dev      Prob
 
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     49.4     50.0   
 47.4     52.1     2.97     3.27%
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     51.4     48.2   
 47.3     52.3     4.65     0.20%                             
 
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     53.1     46.5   
 49.5     50.1     4.73     0.17%
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.6     43.6   
 54.1     45.1     3.54     1.42%                             
                                                              

 
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     53.4     46.1   
 51.5     48.0     2.40     6.83% 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     53.8     45.5   
 51.5     47.9     3.08     2.82%                             
 
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     51.7     48.4   
 48.9     51.1     3.30     2.03%
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     52.8     47.3   
 51.3     48.7     2.48     6.18%
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     53.5     46.0   
 49.9     49.6     4.43     0.30%
                                                             
                                           
Mean     50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     52.7     46.8   
 50.1     49.5     3.51     2.58%
 
 
Probability of average deviation (in parenthesis):
 
Sample   MoE             75% UVA (3.51%)      55% UVA (2.58%)

1000     3.16%            1 in 68             1 in 19  
6000     1.29%            1 in 20 million     1 in 25
thousand                          
9000     1.05%            1 in 30 billion     1 in 1.5
million        

 
Comparison of Zogby Battleground Pre-election polls and
Unadjusted exit polls
 The 9-poll projection average was within 0.5% of the exit
poll average. 
 
Average of 9 Battleground states
Poll       Kerry   Bush
Zogby      50.2   44.8 (final pre-election polls)
Projection 53.7   45.9 (75% undecided to Kerry) 
Exit (WPE) 53.2   45.8
 
         
         Zogby Poll         Projection      Exit Poll        
   Recorded      
St       Kerry Bush        Kerry   Bush     Kerry Bush       
  Kerry Bush    
                                                             
        
CO       47       48       50.3     49.1     50.1    48.6    
   47.4   52.1    
FL       50       47       51.9     47.6     50.9     48.3   
    47.3   52.3    
IA       50       44       54.2     45.4     50.7     48.4   
    49.5   50.1    
ME       50       39       57.6     41.5     55.5     42.7   
    54.1   45.1    
MI       52       45       53.9     45.6     54.4     44.7   
    51.5   48.0    
 
MN       52       44       54.5     44.8     55.7     43.0   
    51.5   47.9    
OH       50       47       52.3     47.8     54.2     45.4   
    48.9   51.1    
PA       50       45       53.8     46.3     55.3     44.0   
    51.3   48.7    
WI       51       44       54.3     45.1     52.0     47.0   
    49.9   49.6    
                                                             
                         
Average  50.2     44.8     53.7     45.9     53.2     45.8   
    50.1   49.5    
 
_


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  -NY: Computer Tallies Can't be Trusted Wilms  Jul-26-09 09:57 PM   #0 
  - Its not that an accurate reliable machine can't be built....it's just easier to hide the fraud by...  yourout   Jul-26-09 10:17 PM   #1 
  - the risk is more limited with Lever, whereas with computer  WillYourVoteBCounted   Jul-26-09 11:28 PM   #2 
  - Important for NYers  clear eye   Jul-27-09 03:44 AM   #3 
  - New York Anomalies: 19 Levers stuck on Bush, none on Kerry (EIRS)  WillE   Aug-12-09 11:55 AM   #4 
  - So are you saying computer tallies CAN BE TRUSTED then?  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:14 PM   #5 
  - Oh, and maybe you can explain how 19 broken machines out of 7,000 in NYC...  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:46 PM   #6 
     - You have avoided the facts presented in the post and appear quite defensive.  WillE   Aug-13-09 12:22 PM   #7 
        - Damn right I'm defensive! Here's why:  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 12:57 PM   #8 
        - Define Dem Share  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 01:22 PM   #9 
        - Do you think that would be a lot of trouble and risk just to pad the popular vote?  Wilms   Aug-13-09 10:46 PM   #10 
        - 580,000 NY late votes; analysis of incidents, county size, Urban Legendand a response  WillE   Aug-14-09 11:57 AM   #11 
        - Everyone knows the problem, at issue is which is worse?  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-14-09 01:36 PM   #12 
        - Sorry, but you DO have to explain HOW the machines could have miscounted so many votes.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 01:48 PM   #13 
           - Sorry to waste your time with facts  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:52 PM   #15 
              - Are you going to answer my question or not?: How many lever machines had to be hacked...  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 04:23 PM   #16 
        - A response and some questions for you  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:26 PM   #14 
           - well, there you go: unsupported dogma  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-14-09 04:24 PM   #17 
           - These reports sound like a Primary with separate Dem and Repub machines.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 07:44 PM   #18 
           - Thanks for using the word "believe". That's honest. Belief, while limited, is all we have.  Wilms   Aug-14-09 11:30 PM   #19 
              - Your comments indicate some confusion and a touch of desperation  WillE   Aug-15-09 12:17 PM   #20 
                 - Confusion? Projection?  Wilms   Aug-15-09 01:25 PM   #21 
                 - The raw data show that Bush didn't do better compared to 2000 in the precincts with the largest WPE.  Bill Bored   Aug-15-09 01:54 PM   #22 
                 - : Motive, Means, and Opportunity  WillE   Aug-17-09 01:52 PM   #24 
                    - I guess I'll stick to one or two odd claims per post  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-09 03:38 PM   #25 
                    - Oooooo!  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-20-09 01:57 AM   #41 
                       - the scary thing is, he still hasn't figured it out  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-20-09 05:31 AM   #42 
                    - Who said levers were "fraud proof"? Other than you claiming someone did, that is?  Wilms   Aug-17-09 10:57 PM   #26 
                    - The HNYVA of 1892  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:01 PM   #27 
                       - HCPB zombies don't seem to realize HCPB is not on the menu.  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:27 PM   #35 
                       - No paper trail? How about NO RECOUNTS?  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:39 AM   #38 
                          - Levers are the gold standard with an 11% WPE?  WillE   Aug-19-09 03:25 PM   #40 
                             - WPE is no standard at all.  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:27 PM   #44 
                    - Too time-consuming to respond to all this but...  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:10 AM   #37 
                       - There can be no stuffing of votes?  WillE   Aug-19-09 02:52 PM   #39 
                          - You think Open Source means Hand Counted or what?  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:02 PM   #43 
                             - : Lets summarize an analysis of the facts. Warning: slow load.  WillE   Aug-21-09 03:28 PM   #46 
                                - "slow load"?! (snark redacted)  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-21-09 07:37 PM   #47 
                                - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:51 PM   #54 
                                - Finally, something about Voting Systems!  Bill Bored   Aug-21-09 10:35 PM   #48 
                                   - More red flags! Average NY WPE: Bush 8.0 (1988,1992,2004); Clinton 0.6 (1996, 2000)  WillE   Aug-23-09 10:38 AM   #49 
                                      - Bush was running for reelection in 1988?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 12:03 PM   #50 
                                         - You need to take an algebra class  WillE   Aug-23-09 01:56 PM   #51 
                                            - oh, brother  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:46 PM   #52 
                                               - Deleted message  Name removed   Aug-23-09 05:38 PM   #55 
                                               - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 06:02 PM   #56 
                                               - 1 was wrong. You were right. I know Bush was VP. Address the wpe anomaly  WillE   Aug-23-09 07:59 PM   #57 
                                               - I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend.  WillE   Aug-24-09 07:20 AM   #58 
                                               - "I was essentially correct in my prior analysis." You were? And TIA?  Wilms   Aug-24-09 09:09 AM   #59 
                                               - "Hell, lets be honest: its impossible."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 09:37 AM   #60 
                                               - There is much to refute here, but it's very easy to do. Just watch.  WillE   Aug-24-09 12:09 PM   #61 
                                               - it's boring to correct you over, and over, and over again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 12:43 PM   #62 
                                               - That was a truly weak response - as expected  WillE   Aug-24-09 02:32 PM   #63 
                                               - "Kerry won ALL three exit polls"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 02:54 PM   #64 
                                               - Here's a NY 2004 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis. Did you ever do one?  WillE   Aug-24-09 04:17 PM   #65 
                                               - all this is facially silly  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:00 PM   #66 
                                               - What's incredulous is your faith-based jargon and avoidance of analytical thought.  WillE   Aug-24-09 05:31 PM   #67 
                                               - "Now I know how Galileo felt."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:38 PM   #68 
                                               - If you used exit polls in your "analysis " it was to thrash them n/t  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:02 PM   #71 
                                               - spoken like, yes, a fundamentalist  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 07:59 AM   #74 
                                               - Better things to do? Yes! Tell us how many lever machines would have to be HACKED to account for...  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 09:35 PM   #69 
                                               - See post #49  WillE   Aug-24-09 09:59 PM   #70 
                                               - This is not about "trusting exit polls" . It's about considering ALL the evidence...  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:16 PM   #72 
                                               - How many machines was that again? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 11:21 PM   #73 
                                               - for your convenience...  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 10:12 AM   #75 
                                               - Thanks for bringing all this back in full view again  WillE   Aug-25-09 04:55 PM   #76 
                                               - "Do you have any proof that they weren't?"  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 06:02 PM   #77 
                                               - I accept your recession  WillE   Aug-25-09 08:26 PM   #78 
                                               - yeah, well  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 09:03 PM   #79 
                                               - No, I'm still here :)  Febble   Aug-26-09 05:30 PM   #80 
                 - wanna play "Urban Legend"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-15-09 02:14 PM   #23 
                    - This will not make your day. It will spoil it.  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:19 PM   #28 
                       - you just aren't very good at analysis, apparently  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 01:51 PM   #29 
                          - Your disinformation campaign rolls on  WillE   Aug-18-09 03:56 PM   #30 
                             - sigh  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 04:54 PM   #31 
                                - Mr. Other, you have been exposed  WillE   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #32 
                                   - uh, no  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 07:47 PM   #34 
                                      - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:50 PM   #53 
        - CORRECTION TO LATE NY PAPER VOTES; EXIT POLL COMPARISONS  WillE   Sep-01-09 07:12 PM   #145 
           - 4.5 years and you're still making "corrections". That's inspiring. n/t  Wilms   Sep-01-09 08:51 PM   #146 
              - You never have to correct a thing. Cuz you never do analysis. Very uninspiring.  WillE   Sep-01-09 10:24 PM   #147 
  - ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##  DU GrovelBot   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #33 
  - Well, we're gonna let an exit poll define your programming. OK, Grov?  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:29 PM   #36 
  - The reality is we have had GOP election theft for decades . . . with complicity of corporate press .  defendandprotect   Aug-21-09 02:12 AM   #45 
     - Election Fraud is endemic. These TIA graphs debunk all the Disinfo.  WillE   Aug-27-09 12:17 PM   #81 
        - TIA FAQ: whined about, but never refuted  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 12:32 PM   #82 
           - You concede when all you can do you is cherry-pick  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:31 PM   #83 
           - I didn't cherrypick  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:15 PM   #85 
           - He refuted it in spades  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:43 PM   #84 
              - nope  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:30 PM   #86 
              - No point in trying to discuss? Of course, because you can't.  WillE   Aug-27-09 03:45 PM   #87 
                 - what point have I not responded to? be specific  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 04:07 PM   #88 
                    - Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.  WillE   Aug-27-09 06:45 PM   #89 
                       - trash talk aside, you're wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 09:04 PM   #90 
                       - You conveniently ignore the analysis which refutes you  WillE   Aug-28-09 12:05 AM   #92 
                          - And I thought electronic vote counting schema was a pretty iffy way to determine outcomes.  Wilms   Aug-28-09 12:33 AM   #93 
                          - Distracted? Uh, this is a thread about why we should trust computers to count votes in NY, right? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-28-09 07:31 PM   #97 
                          - you're simply misrepresenting the PA exit polls  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 06:10 AM   #94 
                       - A FREE online book about Kerry's 2004 landslide  WillE   Aug-27-09 10:22 PM   #91 
              - TIA FAQ Response Summary Update - Includes 2008 reference  WillE   Aug-28-09 08:09 AM   #95 
                 - my double dog dare stands n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 09:26 AM   #96 
                    - The analysis that you won't do proves you dead wrong once again. Your move...  WillE   Aug-29-09 09:19 AM   #98 
                       - sorry, you're still pwned  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 10:11 AM   #99 
                          - Your myths vs. the facts. Now show us your cherry-picked PA LV polls  WillE   Aug-29-09 11:33 AM   #100 
                             - Hmmm. "true activists are winning" you say.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 11:55 AM   #101 
                             - Show us your numbers and stop whining!  WillE   Aug-29-09 12:07 PM   #102 
                             - I'm whinning.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 12:17 PM   #104 
                                - Take your pick. Column A or Column B? Steak or Pork?  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:20 PM   #105 
                                   - Analysis is anything but black and white.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 02:31 PM   #106 
                                      - HS Litmis test?I have no problem with your having a problem...  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:04 PM   #108 
                             - It's time for you to recognize some facts.....  WillE   Aug-30-09 01:44 AM   #115 
                                - Gimme an example.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 02:07 AM   #116 
                                   - Strawman. You avoid my question and are putting words in my mouth.  WillE   Aug-30-09 02:19 AM   #117 
                                      - Don't be silly! Activism was a result of the radical Bush regime and FL 2000.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 03:25 AM   #118 
                                         - Activism was muted in 2001; it became widespread in Nov. 2004  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:58 AM   #119 
                                            - Ah, but most Dems in Congress voted FOR HAVA! They considered themselves to be reformers!  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 08:46 PM   #120 
                                               - You just don 't get it, do you?  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:41 PM   #121 
                                                  - You're still not listening. And may well never.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:12 PM   #122 
                                                  - You avoid the content of the post.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:34 PM   #125 
                                                  - Human Miscounts?  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:00 AM   #134 
                                                  - I don't CARE what the polls say. They are just polls -- not voting systems.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:17 PM   #123 
                                                     - In fact, where are all the true-believers?  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:28 PM   #124 
                                                     - Now it is clear...  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:45 PM   #127 
                                                     - I have no troops.  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:03 AM   #135 
                                                     - You really DO have blinders on.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:42 PM   #126 
                                                     - You wrote: "No one is contesting that the levers are accurate." Good! Then my work here is done.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:46 PM   #128 
                                                     - No, your work has just started..  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:11 PM   #129 
                                                     - Didn't Bush run in 2000?  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:22 PM   #131 
                                                     - Bush was NOT the incumbent in 2k. He was in '04. He had means, motive and opportunity.  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:35 PM   #132 
                                                     - Welp, at least we agree that it is a ...  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:51 PM   #133 
                                                     - but, WillE,  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:16 AM   #137 
                                                     - You either don't read or you quickly forget: Motive. Means. Opportunity  WillE   Aug-31-09 06:53 AM   #139 
                                                     - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:36 AM   #141 
                                                     - of course he can "have it both ways" -- think about it  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:06 AM   #136 
                                                     - You want to talk about "blind faith"? OK.  WillE   Aug-31-09 07:29 AM   #140 
                                                     - darling, you're in a panic  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:57 AM   #142 
                                                     - Show us YOUR numbers. Here is the NY True Vote analysis you WON'T DARE do.  WillE   Aug-31-09 08:59 AM   #143 
                                                     - as usual, you have no counter to ANY of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 09:31 AM   #144 
                                                     - You really *are* an optimist!!! n/t  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:20 PM   #130 
                             - you didn't respond to any of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 12:16 PM   #103 
                                - As usual, you are a no show  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:53 PM   #107 
                                   - care to try again in English?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 03:21 PM   #109 
                                      - Now about those LVs and Rvs- you have shown us NADA  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:54 PM   #110 
                                         - JIm Lampley on Bradblog in 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 04:40 PM   #111 
                                         - Must Listen! Jim Lampley of HBO on Bradblog in May 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 06:05 PM   #113 
                                            - I recall that interview. Was very happy to hear it.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 06:48 PM   #114 
                                            - here's an interesting part  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:19 AM   #138 
                                         - no, you haven't  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 04:56 PM   #112 
 

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