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Reply #83: You concede when all you can do you is cherry-pick [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-27-09 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #82
83. You concede when all you can do you is cherry-pick
Edited on Thu Aug-27-09 01:38 PM by WillE
PA 2004 True Vote Analysis								
												
You have conceded and dont know it.
You always concede when you are forced to cherry-pick
individual polls.
You are thrashing Mitofsky again in favor of one of your
cherry-picked polls.

As a matter of fact, TIA has done a PA True Vote analysis.
You of course, can do nothing but cherry-pick.
You have never done a legitimate analysis.
But TIA does it all the time.

A True Vote PA analysis gave Kerry a 54.6-44.5% margin.
The exit poll was 55.1-44.6%.
So Mitofsky was probably right about PA.
And once again, you are left wanting.

Of course you will surely say that TIA forced the vote match
 like the exit pollsters always do.Thats because you dont
know the first thing about True Vote analysis and modeling.

But informed readers know that TIA doesnt cherry-pick.
He does the work that you won't or cannot do.

											
												
PA	2000			2004								
	Recorded
Cast	Alive	Turnout	Mix	Kerry	Bush	Other	Kerry	Bush	Other
DNV	 -	 -	 -	1,201 	20.6%	59.4%	39.3%	1.3%	713 	472 	16   
Gore	2,486 	2,542 	2,415 	2,367 	40.5%	91.5%	7.9%	0.6%	2,165
	186 	15   
Bush	2,281 	2,296 	2,181 	2,138 	36.6%	10.6%	89.4%	0.0%	226
	1,912 	0   
Other	146 	150 	142 	139 	2.4%	64.0%	23.7%	12.3%	89 	33 	17  

												
True 	4,913 	4,988 	4,739 	5,845 		54.6%	44.5%	0.8%	3,193
	2,603 	48  
												
2000	Bush	Gore	Other	Recorded	50.9%	48.4%	0.7%	2,938 	2,794
	38  
Record	46.4%	50.6%	3.0%	Disc	         3.7%	-3.9%	0.2%	255
	(190)	11  
ExitP	46.0%	51.0%	3.0%	Exit Poll	55.1%	44.2%	0.7%	3,180
	2,552 	38  
Cast	46.0%	51.0%	3.0%	Discrepancy	-0.5%	0.3%	0.2%	13 	52  11
	75 
												
										
												
												
PA Sensitivity Analysis	

												
Kerry		Kerry Share				Kerry Share		
% DNV		of Gore					of Bush	 Share of DNV	91%
-	89%	90%	91%	92%	93%		-	55%	56%	57%	58%	59%
												
59%	53.5%	54.0%	54.4%	54.8%	55.2%		12%	55.0%	55.2%	55.4%	55.6%
55.8%
58%	53.3%	53.7%	54.2%	54.6%	55.0%		11%	54.6%	54.8%	55.0%	55.2%
55.4%
57%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%	54.4%	54.8%		10%	54.2%	54.4%	54.6%	54.8%
55.0%
56%	52.9%	53.3%	53.7%	54.1%	54.6%		9%	53.9%	54.1%	54.2%	54.4%
54.6%
55%	52.7%	53.1%	53.5%	53.9%	54.3%		8%	53.5%	53.7%	53.9%	54.1%
54.3%
												
		Kerry Margin					Kerry Margin
		(in thousands)					(in thousands)			
 												
59%	463 	510 	558 	605 	652 		12%	635 	657 	680 	703   725 
58%	439 	486 	534 	581 	628 		11%	590 	612 	635 	658   680 
57%	415 	462 	510 	557 	604 		10%	544 	567 	590 	613   635 
56%	391 	438 	486 	533 	580 		9%	499 	522 	545 	567   590 
55%	367 	414 	461 	509 	556 		8%	454 	477 	500 	522   545 
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