You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #65: Here's a NY 2004 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis. Did you ever do one? [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-24-09 05:17 PM
Response to Reply #64
65. Here's a NY 2004 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis. Did you ever do one?
Edited on Mon Aug-24-09 05:23 PM by WillE
NY 2004 Election Sensitivity Analysis

Important note: 
Kerry's 58.4% NY vote share was 10.1% higher than his
national (48.3%) share.

Given the following:
1) Total NY votes cast: 7.0 million cast in 2000 ; 7.7m in
2004
2) 2000 voter mortality: 5% - based on mortality data -
plausible
3) 2000: 75% of  175,000 net  uncounted votes to Gore -
plausible 
4) 2004: 75% of  308,000 net uncounted votes to  Kerry -
plausible
5) 67% of new voters to Kerry (he had a 57% national share) 
plausible 
6) 11% of returning Bush voters to Kerry (he had a 10%
national share)  plausible
7) Kerry won 64% of returning Nader voters  plausible

In order to match the RECORDED vote, Kerry had to have won
83% (Bush had 15%) of returning NY Gore voters (he had a 91%
national share)  that is VERY implausible.

IT IS IMPOSSIBLE  THAT IN HEAVILY DEMOCRATIC NY STATE, KERRY
WOULD CAPTURE JUST 83% OF RETURNING GORE VOTERS WHEN HE  HAD
A 91% NATIONAL SHARE..

THEREFORE THE RECORDED VOTE IS IMPOSSIBLE.

In this implausible scenario FORCED TO MATCH THE NY RECORDED
VOTE:
Kerry has a 58.6% vote share and wins by 1.41 million votes.
That is very close to his recorded margin of 1.35 million.

Do you have a problem with the assumptions? 
Then consider a sensitivity analysis of Kerrys NY vote share
and margin for various percentages of new voters and returning
Gore voters.

Assume the above, but give Kerry a plausible 92% of returning
Gore voters 
(he had a 91% national share) 

View the Sensitivity Analysis below.

Kerrys True NY vote share was aproximately 63.2%. 
He won by 2.12 million votes.
Kerrys corresponding margin was reduced by 710,000 votes
from 2.12 to 1.41 million.

Assumptions required to force a match to the bogus recorded
vote 	 
AN IMPLAUSIBLE SCENARIO

2000 voter	
    Turnout     Voted	Weight	Kerry	Bush	Other

DNV 	        1.185m	15.4%	67%	31%	2%
Gore   98%	3.949	51.3%	83%	16%	1%
Bush   98%	2.268	29.5%	11%	89%	0%
Nader  98%	0.298	3.9%	64%	28%	8%
					 
     6.51m	7.699	100%	58.60%	40.27%	1.13%
 	 	       7.70n 	4.51m 	3.10m 	0.09m 
					

Sensitivity Analysis
of Kerry's NY Vote share and margin to
his share of New and returning Gore voters


Assumption:
Kerry share of returning NY Bush 2000 voters: 11.0%	  					 

Kerry	
%Gore 	 Kerry % of New voters (DNV in 2000)	 
Voters	47%	57%	67%	77%	87%
 		Kerry  NY Vote Share
92%	60.1%	61.7%	63.2%	64.8%	66.3%
89%	58.6%	60.1%	61.7%	63.2%	64.8%
86%	57.1%	58.6%	60.1%	61.7%	63.2%
83%	55.5%	57.1%	58.6%	60.1%	61.7%
80%	54.0%	55.5%	57.1%	58.6%	60.1%
 					 
 		 Kerry Margin		 

92%	1.65	1.88	2.12	2.36	2.60
89%	1.41	1.65	1.88	2.12	2.36
86%	1.17	1.41	1.65	1.88	2.12
83%	0.94	1.17	1.41	1.65	1.88
80%	0.70	0.94	1.17	1.41	1.65

Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC