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Reply #58: I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Aug-24-09 07:20 AM
Response to Reply #57
58. I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend.
Edited on Mon Aug-24-09 07:37 AM by WillE
I was essentially correct in my prior analysis.
Hopefully, this will clear things up.

In the Top 15 NY counties, there were 516k more NET Election Day votes in 2004 than in 2000.
Nader/other declined by 143k votes from 2000.

Therefore, there were approximately 659K GROSS new voters (including Nader defectors) in 2004.
Assume that the 143k were defecting Nader voters.

Of the 659k:
Kerry gained 208k (31%); approximately 100k (70%) were Nader 2000 defectors.
Bush gained 451k (69%); approximately 43k (30%)were Nader 2000 defectors.

But we know that Kerry won approximately 60-70% of new voters in NY.
So how could Bush have had 69% of the 609k?

Only if there was a massive defection of Gore voters to Bush.
But a massive defection in 15 counties which gave Gore a 64-31% margin in 2000?

Urban Legend?

Election Day 2000/2004 Vote Changes
Top 15 NY Counties

Total Dem Bush Other
2004 5.268 3.253 1.943 0.072
100% 61.75% 36.88% 1.37%

2000 4.752 3.045 1.492 0.215
100% 64.08% 31.40% 4.52%

Change 0.516 0.208 0.451 (0.143)


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