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Reply #51: You need to take an algebra class [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-23-09 01:56 PM
Response to Reply #50
51. You need to take an algebra class
You will wish you never replied to the post

You are a disingenuous nitpicker who needs to take an algebra class

1
I'm sure you've worked out in your head why it makes perfect sense that it was more useful for Bush Sr. to steal New York votes in 1988 than for Bush Jr. to steal New York votes in 2000. But at best, all this looks like circular reasoning.
-----
Classic Nitpicking: Bush was the vice-president. I know that. But he was the defacto incumbent. But for all practical purposes he was running as an incumbent. Is that the best you can do, Mr. Other?

2
You've butchered the other analysis, too. Assuming for the sake of argument that most of your assumptions make sense, you've confused a "741k net gain" for Bush with a 741k margin for Bush. If Bush actually won returning Bush and Gore voters by 741k, while losing new voters by 394k and returning Nader/other voters by 94k, then Bush would have won these counties outright by over 250,000 votes. Yet your own figures indicate that Kerry won these counties by over 800,000 votes. That's a net error of over one million votes. Yikes.

How could you have been off by over a million votes? Because the result, while arithmetically absurd, comported with what you deeply feel to be true. That's my guess, anyway.
------

Your guess is wrong. You dont compute.
Come on, Mr. Other, you are too quick in your disinfo.
Did you take 9th grade algebra?
Lets go through it one step at a time.

1) In 2004, there were 5267k recorded votes in the top 15 NY counties.

2) Bush gained 461k votes from 2000
Kerry gained 208k

Thats a TOTAL NET Bush 253k gain. (your bogus Urban Legend)

3) Of the 5267k total votes, 852k were new voters
Kerry had 571k (67.0%) of new voters
Bush had 264k (31%)
I had this as 177k (bad) in the original. But the fix will hardly have any effect.
Thats a NET 307k Kerry gain from NEW voters.

4) There were 200k returning Nader voters.
Kerry had 128k
Bush had 34k
Thats a NET Kerry 94k gain from returning Nader voters.

5) Thats a NET Kerry 401k gain among the NEW and returning Nader voters.

Are you still with me?

6) Since Bush had a total net gain of 253k from ALL NEW and RETURNING voters, he had to overcome Kerrys 401k lead among NEW and RETURNING Nader voters.
He needed 654k = 401k+ 253k.
Bush needed 654k more RETURNING Bush and Gore voters than Kerry

7) Note that Gore won the 15 counties by a 33% margin.
Bush needed a 654k margin among returning Gore and Bush voters.
In other words, Bush needed to win this group by 15% (57.5-42.5%)

Now for the algebra:
8) T= 4377 = returning Bush (B) + Gore (G) voters (from above).
Bush had to win 654k more returning Bush and Gore voters than Kerry.

T = B + K = 4377
B = 654 + K
or
B = 654+ 4377 B
2B = 5031

Therefore.
B = 2515 (57.5%)
K= 4377 B = 1862 (42.5%

Q.E.D.
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