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Reply #49: More red flags! Average NY WPE: Bush 8.0 (1988,1992,2004); Clinton 0.6 (1996, 2000) [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-23-09 10:38 AM
Response to Reply #48
49. More red flags! Average NY WPE: Bush 8.0 (1988,1992,2004); Clinton 0.6 (1996, 2000)
Edited on Sun Aug-23-09 11:14 AM by WillE

You have challenged me to calculate how many machines would be needed to fix the vote but you have not addressed any one of those 13 Red Flags. Your question should be: How many corrupt election officials would it take?

This post will reveal two more very red flags:

a) 1988-2004: smoking guns in the NY exit polls (8.0 average wpe for Bush; 0.6 for Clinton)

b) an impossible 58% Bush share of returning Gore and Bush voters in the largest 15 (highly Democratic) NY counties was required in order to match the recorded vote

Its time to raise another red flag. It may be the reddest one of all. And yes, it also involves the exit polls that you love to hate 5 of them in fact. Lets review the 1988-2004 NY votes cast, recorded and the exit polls for some clues.

Maybe then you will understand why the unadjusted exit polls are indeed smoking guns. And why the final exit polls that are always forced to match the recorded vote are just smoke to hide the fraud.

First the bad news:
The average NY unadjusted exit polls diverged by a whopping 8.0% from the recorded vote (as measured by the WPE) when Bush Sr. or Bush Jr. was the incumbent (1988, 1992, 2004). Check the Edison-Mitofsky 2004 exit poll report.

Now for some good news:
When Clinton was the incumbent (1996, 2000) the average WPE was a minuscule 0.6%. Apparently, he didnt have to cheat. And the Levers matched the exit polls.Was it just a coincidence that the WPE was so divergent between the Democrats and the Republicans?

Apparently the Lever vote counts were quite accurate but NOT when a Bush was running for re-election. Now, why would you want to let good machine counts be compromised by bad people?

How many red flags are swinging in the breeze now?

Why would you not want to be confident that the votes were reported as cast? True, the Lever spoilage rate was a low 0.77% in 2004. But human ethical spoilage will always be quite high and election integrity quite low without true transparency.

Transparency can ONLY be achieved by either HCPB or a robust (99% confidence) audit of optically scanned ballots with results posted at the precinct and uploaded to the Internet for FULL data redundancy using OPEN SOURCE SOFTWARE.

The weight of all the evidence proves beyond a reasonable doubt that Bush was able to achieve his bogus 3.0 million national mandate by reducing Kerrys NY margin by approximately 750,000 votes. .

Karl Rove must have read about Willie Sutton. NY was a lucrative bank to heist a few hundred thousand big ones. Kerry was headed for a 2.0m landslide by improving on Gores 1.7 million NY margin (60-35%). There were one million new highly motivated voters as well as 244,000 returning Nader voters, most of whom were ready to defect to Kerry.

But no one would notice it if Kerrys NY margin was 400,000 less than Gores? The media focused on the battleground states. NY was a foregone conclusion. Besides, Bush had his mandate.

1988-2008 NY Votes cast

Note: 1996 was the only election in which the Democratic recorded margin exceeded the exit poll (indicated by the positive +2.1 WPE).

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004
WPE -7.2 -4.6 +2.1 -3.3 -12.2

Cast 7174 7613 6830 7001 7618
Recorded 6456 6927 6316 6823 7391
Unct(net) 718 686 514 178 277

Dem Share (%)
ExitPoll 55.2 52.0 58.4 61.4 64.5
Recorded 51.6 49.7 59.5 60.2 58.4
Diff 3.6 2.3 -1.1 1.2 6.1

But there is more. Yes, another very red flag.
- Show quoted text -

An analysis of changes in the recorded vote in the 15 largest NY counties from 2000 to 2004 yields an interesting result that illustrates the implausibility of the Urban Legend.
It is very strong evidence that Bush padded his vote and suppressed Kerrys.

In 2000, there were 4.74 million recorded votes in the 15 counties.
In 2004, there were 5.27 million.

In 2000 Gore won the 15 counties by 64.2 - 31.3%, a 33% recorded margin.
Nader et al had 4.5%.

In 2004, Kerry won the counties by 61.8 36.9%, a 25% recorded margin.
Nader et al had 1.3%.

How did Bush increase his share by 5.6% in the 15 counties from 2000?
He couldnt unless you believe the implausible Urban Legend.

In order to achieve his 2004 recorded vote in the 15 strongly Democratic counties, Bush needed to win returning Bush and Gore voters by a 58.5-41.5% margin. In other words Bush needed a 17% margin among voters who gave Gore a 33% margin in 2000!

Assumptions:
1) 5% voter mortality of 2000 voters.
2) 98% turnout of LIVING 2000 voters in 2004.

3) Kerrys recorded NY share was 58%; he had 48% nationally.
Since he had approximately 57-62% of new voters, we can conservatively assume that he had 67% of NEW voters in the 15 largest NY counties.

4) Nationally, Kerry had a 64-17% margin over Bush among returning Nader voters.
We can conservatively assume he had the same margin in the 15 counties.

Based on the above conservative assumptions, Kerry had a 394k margin among 852k new voters and a 94k margin among 200k returning Nader/other voters.

Therefore Kerry had an estimated 488k margin in the 15 counties among new and returning third-party voters.

But Bush gained 461k total recorded votes over his 2000 total; Kerry just 208k
Therefore, Bush gained 253k net votes in the 15 counties.

Since Kerry led by 488k among new and returning third-party voters, Bush needed a 741k net gain (17% margin) among returning Gore and Bush voters who gave Gore a 33% margin in 2000. How could he have achieved this?

Let T= 4377 returning Bush (B) and Gore (G) voters.
B + K = 4377

Bush led Kerry by 741k in this group.
B = 741 + K

Solve for the required Bush and Kerry shares of returning Bush and Gore voters:
B = 2559 (58.5%)
K = 1818 (41.5%)

Election Day Recorded Vote Analysis (2000/2004)
Top 15 NY Counties Election Day Votes

(votes in thousands)


2000
Precincts Total Gore Bush Nader Gore Bush Nader
Brooklyn 1888 557 445 89 22 79.9% 16.1% 4.0%
Suffolk 1006 536 285 224 27 53.2% 41.8% 5.0%
Nassau 1070 554 319 214 21 57.6% 38.7% 3.7%
Manhattan 1100 522 410 79 33 78.5% 15.1% 6.3%
Queens 1470 512 380 115 17 74.2% 22.5% 3.2%

Erie 1007 384 218 143 22 56.8% 37.4% 5.9%
Westchester 948 306 179 115 13 58.4% 37.4% 4.2%
Monroe 792 300 152 133 15 50.8% 44.1% 5.1%
Bronx 912 279 240 33 6 86.0% 11.9% 2.1%
Onondaga 485 190 102 78 10 53.8% 40.9% 5.3%

Staten Island 333 133 69 60 4 51.8% 45.2% 3.1%
Albany 327 130 78 44 8 59.7% 34.0% 6.3%
Orange 284 118 54 58 5 45.8% 49.6% 4.6%
Rockland 250 117 65 47 5 55.9% 40.2% 3.9%
Dutchess 239 105 49 49 7 46.7% 47.1% 6.2%

Total 12111 4742 3045 1482 215 64.21% 31.26% 4.53%


2004
Total Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Brooklyn 630 468 157 5.2 74.3% 24.8% 0.8%
Suffolk 618 303 302 13.3 49.1% 48.8% 2.1%
Nassau 597 312 279 6.0 52.3% 46.7% 1.0%
Manhattan 572 469 95 8.0 81.9% 16.7% 1.4%
Queens 559 398 157 4.7 71.2% 28.0% 0.8%

Erie 411 231 171 9.0 56.2% 41.6% 2.2%
Westchester 377 218 153 5.5 57.9% 40.7% 1.5%
Monroe 330 166 159 5.2 50.4% 48.1% 1.6%
Bronx 318 263 53 2.0 82.7% 16.7% 0.6%
Onondaga 199 107 88 3.5 54.1% 44.1% 1.8%

Staten Island 148 63 84 1.2 42.3% 56.9% 0.8%
Albany 136 82 51 2.6 60.2% 37.8% 1.9%
Orange 135 59 74 1.8 43.6% 55.0% 1.3%
Rockland 122 59 61 1.8 48.7% 49.8% 1.5%
Dutchess 114 53 59 1.8 46.5% 51.9% 1.6%

Total 5267 3253 1943 72 61.75% 36.89% 1.36%

Change
Kerry Bush Nader Kerry Bush Nader
Brooklyn 23.3 67.2 -17.1 5.2% 75.2% -76.6%
Suffolk 18.0 77.7 -13.7 6.3% 34.7% -50.8%
Nassau -6.7 64.5 -14.7 -2.1% 30.1% -70.9%
Manhattan 59.1 16.4 -25.1 14.4% 20.8% -75.8%
Queens 18.3 41.3 -11.9 4.8% 35.8% -71.9%

Erie 13.3 27.7 -13.5 6.1% 19.3% -60.0%
Westchester 39.5 38.9 -7.3 22.1% 34.0% -56.9%
Monroe 13.9 26.3 -10.2 9.1% 19.9% -66.3%
Bronx 22.8 19.7 -3.9 9.5% 59.4% -65.8%
Onondaga 5.4 10.1 -6.5 5.3% 13.0% -64.6%

Staten Island -6.2 24.3 -2.9 -9.0% 40.5% -69.8%
Albany 3.8 6.9 -5.6 4.9% 15.6% -68.0%
Orange 5.1 16.0 -3.7 9.5% 27.5% -67.0%
Rockland -6.0 13.7 -2.7 -9.2% 29.1% -59.6%
Dutchess 4.0 9.7 -4.7 8.2% 19.5% -71.7%
Total 207.5 460.6 -143.2 6.4% 23.7% -199.6%



Top 15 NY counties Election Day (Lever) votes

Total Kerry Bush Nader/other
2004 5267 3253 1943 72
61.8% 36.9% 1.4%

2000 Total Gore Bush Nader/other
4742 3045 1482 215
64.2% 31.3% 4.5%

Change 525 208 461 -143
% Chg 100% 39.5% 87.7% -27.3%
% incr 3.9% 8.7% -2.7%
____________________________________________

2004 Turnout of Top 15 NY county voters from 2000

2000 Total 4742 recorded
Died 237 5%
Living 4505 95%

Turnout 4415 98%
____________________________________________

New Voters

2004 Total 5267 recorded
Less 4415 turnout
New 852

To:
Kerry 571 67%
Bush 177 31%
Nader 4 2%

Kerry 394 net gain in new voters
____________________________________________

Nader/other 2000 voter turnout in 2004

2000 215
Died 11 5%
Living 204 95%
Turnout 200 98%

To:
Kerry 128 64%
Bush 34 17%
Other 38 19%

Kerry 94 net gain in Nader/other returning 2000 voters
____________________________________________

Returning Gore and Bush 2000 voters

Total 5267 recorded
Less:
New 852
Nader 38

Total 4377 returning Gore + Bush
____________________________________________

Kerry gain in new and returning Nader voters

New 394
Nader 94

Kerry 488 net gain
____________________________________________

Recorded vote gain from 2000

Kerry 208
Bush 461

Bush 253 net gain

Vote gain Discrepancy: 741
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