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Reply #47: "slow load"?! (snark redacted) [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-21-09 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #46
47. "slow load"?! (snark redacted)
Just FYI, there's no prize for longest post. Some folks may assume that you're brilliant; almost no one will read it all. Maybe that's your intention. Bill may find a few things worth responding to; here are a few from me.
Kerry led the pre-election polls by 51-48%.

Anyone who looks at the actual poll results knows that, at best, this is a highly controversial claim, not a fact. (pollingreport.com, which hasn't joined TIA's cult, shows Bush leading in 10 out of 14 final trial heats and 5 out of 8 vote projections.) If there actually are any new viewers, they can and should infer that they can't rely on your version of the "facts," however sincerely felt it may be.

In the world the rest of us live in, Kerry outperformed not one but four late pre-election polls in New York. Even if we assume that the likely voter models were biased, it's frankly kind of bizarre to insist that Kerry probably outperformed the official results by double digits here. Hypothetically, you might have compelling evidence that the polls were flat-out wrong, but I sure haven't seen it.

You yourself said that the Urban Legend had to do with Bush outperforming his 2000 baseline in urban areas while "breaking even or losing share in Republican rural areas and small towns." Or, as you said elsewhere, "Bushs vote share increased sharply from 2000 in the NYC area with no gain in GOP rural, small towns." However, your own data show that Bush in fact did better in almost every non-urban county in 2004 than in 2000. So, the claim is wrong. The correlation simply doesn't substantiate the claim; it moves the goalposts. No one can force you to limit yourself to relevant evidence; I can only call your bluff. (If you want to convince serious people that your correlation is important, you need an argument, not just a buzz phrase tied to an incorrect claim.)

As for the graph, it remains crappy, and I still haven't seen a straightforward definition of the variables (what exactly is it that you claim increased by almost 50% in Jefferson County?) and sourcing of the data. I think fixing these defects would be easier than whining, but I guess it takes all kinds.

Me, I'm not debating the merits of lever machines. You can have that argument with Bill, if he bothers to reply to you.

Kerry won NY by 1.35 million recorded votes. Who was going to question it? They would be laughed at.

Frankly, if your arguments made more sense, then that wouldn't be true. Apparently, you can't win on the merits, so you're reduced to slamming anyone who tries to explain why. It's a shame.

2) Or do you believe the election was stolen (Kerry won the TRUE vote)?... If its 2) thats equivalent to saying the state and national exit polls were essentially correct....

No, it isn't "equivalent" at all. There are many conceivable scenarios in which Kerry won the true vote, yet the exit polls were not essentially correct. Your claim here makes no logical sense, and it exemplifies why I think "exit poll fundamentalism" is the right name.

If you think that the decision to cast an absentee or provisional vote is essentially random, then it makes perfect sense to compare the "LATE PAPER ballot votes" to the exit poll results. Do you? Do you think people cast provisional ballots pretty much at random as the mood strikes them? Really? And you want to school Bill on election integrity? :eyes:

By the way, have you located any of the other states that are paper-only? Or have you been very busy doing anything and everything else? Just wondering.
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