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Reply #40: Levers are the “gold standard” with an 11% WPE? [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Aug-19-09 03:25 PM
Response to Reply #38
40.  Levers are the “gold standard” with an 11% WPE?

1
Do you realize that the reason levers leave no paper trail is because NY did NOT allow recounts? Recounts were always considered to be more fraud-prone than first counts, and for good reason.
---
Is that so, like in Florida 2000? So you are opposed to recounts. Al Franken would disagree.

2
Only ballots that could not be counted on election night were counted after election night in New York.
---
Of course, and 66% were for Kerry.


3
The reason for the "paper trail" is the need for software independence -- not some need to recount what has already been CORRECTLY counted on election night.
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No the need is for paper ballots to verify that the ALL votes were correctly counted


4
There are valid reasons for recanvassing, most of which have to do with precinct aggregation errors, tally transcription errors, etc. But recounts? What for, if the count was already proven to be correct on election night? New York Election Law required such proof -- until now.
----
You have just partially hit the nail on the head: “precinct aggregation errors, tally transcription errors” Are you missing a few others?

5
Lever machines satisfied this law, through their properties of repeatable testing, transparency and observability. It's not just about the hacking. It's about being able to SEE how the votes are counted.
---
Transparency? Observability?. By whom? Who sees how the votes are counted? A discouraged voter leaving the precinct because of malfunctioning levers never gets to see their vote registered, much less counted. And if they did vote, how will they know it will be counted correctly by either the levers or by humans behind closed doors?


6
The problem is, we can no longer prove election-night counts because election-night counts are computerized. This is a lower standard, which NY should never accept.
----

That’s why the results should be posted on the wall at the precinct and on the Inernet in full public view.

7
With software, there is now no way to prove the first count is correct without recounting by hand. This is the false logic of the paper ballot advocates in New York: They think that paper ballots are needed because they think recounts are needed. But the only reason recounts are needed is because the ballots may not have been counted right the first time -- due to computer problems.
----

Even if the Levers worked perfectly (which we know they don’t), how could you KNOW that the results were RECORDED correctly afterwards behind closed DOORS? That is the essential point that you keep missing. Paper ballots are needed to verify the votes. Apparently you don’t feel it is necessary to verify the votes. What do you have against verification?

8
NY does allow post-election-night counting of any ballots NOT counted on election night. Anything less would disenfranchise certain voters. But these are NOT recounts. Nor was the count of the ballots that weren't counted on election night in Minnesota.
-----
But they did count 500,000 late paper ballots, didn’t they? And there were 300,000 net uncounted votes, right? Net = Uncounted – stuffed. Could there have been 700,000 and 400,000 stuffed> How would you know if you don’t VERIFY?.

9
NY Election Law has never allowed recounting of all the ballots counted on election night until now due to the use of computers -- because computer counts can't be trusted.
----

But human counters behind closed doors can be trusted?

10
That said, NY, like other paper ballot states, will not count nearly enough paper ballots by hand to confirm the winners of all elections -- not to mention chain of custody concerns. NY has therefore failed to provide election integrity with paper ballots. Until they do, they are much better off with lever machines.
-----
Why not? A robust random audit sample is all that is necessary. Something like an exit poll in full view.

11
If New York Election Law does not allow recounts, having paper ballots buys us nothing, while counting them with computers opens up new attack vectors that didn't exist with lever machines. The whole thing STINKS! It's a fraud and sham and those who are still advocating it are either stupid or complicit in it. That may include you and other exit-poll true believers who don't get the fact that HCPB is off the table and compared to everything else, lever machines are the gold standard.
---

No, count them by audit - by hand in full view. Is that too much to ask?
You call advocates of TRUE transparency Stupid or complicit? You should not cast aspersions on dedicated activists. Do you have a personal stake in this? Who do you represent?

If Lever machines are the gold standard than they are a fool’s gold.

SETTING THE RECORD STARIGHT ON THE PRE-ELECTION AND EXIT POLLS

Despite what OTOH says, undecided voters broke heavily for Kerry. In fact, Gallup allocated 90% of the undecided vote to him.

The final national pre-election polls (adjusted for the allocation of undecided voters) projected a 51-48% Kerry win.

The 12:22am National Exit Poll (13047 respondents) indicated that Kerry won by 51-48%. The unadjusted state exit poll aggregate (114,000 polled) indicated that he won by 52-47%.

The national pre-election and exit polls matched up very well, thank you.


Now let’s consider the New York pre-election polls.

On Oct. 24, Kerry led by 57-36 (61-38 after allocating undecided voters). The trend was in favor of Kerry after rebounding from his drop in Sept. after the GOP convention.

He led the final pre-election poll by 57-39 (59-40 after undecided voters were allocated). But the trend was in Kerry’s favor, so why should we believe the final poll? Especially when you consider these questions:

1) Were they Registered or Likely Voter polls? If they were LVs, which they likely were, then they both underestimated Kerry’s projected NY vote share. Why? Because there were almost one million new voters! Only an RV poll would include the all newly registered voters.

Despite what OTOH says, RV polls are superior indicators of the True Vote in elections in which there is a heavy voter turnout. In 2004, there were approximately 22 million new voters. About 1 million were in NY! That is VERY heavy turnout.

Don’t forget that in 2000, Gore won the official NY vote by 60-35%. But there were 300,000 net uncounted votes (uncounted less stuffed). Had all votes CAST been counted, Gore would have had more than his 25% recorded margin.

We know that Kerry had 57-62% of new voters nationally. His recorded 58.4% NY vote share was almost exactly 10% better than his recorded 48.3% national share. Therefore, we must assume that he had approximately 67-72% of new NY voters.

And don’t forget that he won 66% of the final 500,000 paper ballot votes.
And that he had a consistent 64-65% in the exit polls up until the ABRUPT final adjustment that FORCED a match to his recorded 58% share.

Is all this beginning to make sense to you? Do you appreciate seeing what some might call a meta-analysis? It’s really quite simple. Just plain old arithmetic combined with some common sense.

You must start to think out of the box that the OTOH disinformation campaign has put you and others in.
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  -NY: Computer Tallies Can't be Trusted Wilms  Jul-26-09 09:57 PM   #0 
  - Its not that an accurate reliable machine can't be built....it's just easier to hide the fraud by...  yourout   Jul-26-09 10:17 PM   #1 
  - the risk is more limited with Lever, whereas with computer  WillYourVoteBCounted   Jul-26-09 11:28 PM   #2 
  - Important for NYers  clear eye   Jul-27-09 03:44 AM   #3 
  - New York Anomalies: 19 Levers stuck on Bush, none on Kerry (EIRS)  WillE   Aug-12-09 11:55 AM   #4 
  - So are you saying computer tallies CAN BE TRUSTED then?  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:14 PM   #5 
  - Oh, and maybe you can explain how 19 broken machines out of 7,000 in NYC...  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:46 PM   #6 
     - You have avoided the facts presented in the post and appear quite defensive.  WillE   Aug-13-09 12:22 PM   #7 
        - Damn right I'm defensive! Here's why:  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 12:57 PM   #8 
        - Define Dem Share  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 01:22 PM   #9 
        - Do you think that would be a lot of trouble and risk just to pad the popular vote?  Wilms   Aug-13-09 10:46 PM   #10 
        - 580,000 NY late votes; analysis of incidents, county size, Urban Legend…and a response  WillE   Aug-14-09 11:57 AM   #11 
        - Everyone knows the problem, at issue is which is worse?  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-14-09 01:36 PM   #12 
        - Sorry, but you DO have to explain HOW the machines could have miscounted so many votes.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 01:48 PM   #13 
           - Sorry to waste your time with facts  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:52 PM   #15 
              - Are you going to answer my question or not?: How many lever machines had to be hacked...  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 04:23 PM   #16 
        - A response and some questions for you  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:26 PM   #14 
           - well, there you go: unsupported dogma  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-14-09 04:24 PM   #17 
           - These reports sound like a Primary with separate Dem and Repub machines.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 07:44 PM   #18 
           - Thanks for using the word "believe". That's honest. Belief, while limited, is all we have.  Wilms   Aug-14-09 11:30 PM   #19 
              - Your comments indicate some confusion and a touch of desperation  WillE   Aug-15-09 12:17 PM   #20 
                 - Confusion? Projection?  Wilms   Aug-15-09 01:25 PM   #21 
                 - The raw data show that Bush didn't do better compared to 2000 in the precincts with the largest WPE.  Bill Bored   Aug-15-09 01:54 PM   #22 
                 - : Motive, Means, and Opportunity  WillE   Aug-17-09 01:52 PM   #24 
                    - I guess I'll stick to one or two odd claims per post  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-09 03:38 PM   #25 
                    - Oooooo!  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-20-09 01:57 AM   #41 
                       - the scary thing is, he still hasn't figured it out  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-20-09 05:31 AM   #42 
                    - Who said levers were "fraud proof"? Other than you claiming someone did, that is?  Wilms   Aug-17-09 10:57 PM   #26 
                    - The HNYVA of 1892  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:01 PM   #27 
                       - HCPB zombies don't seem to realize HCPB is not on the menu.  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:27 PM   #35 
                       - No paper trail? How about NO RECOUNTS?  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:39 AM   #38 
                          - Levers are the “gold standard” with an 11% WPE?  WillE   Aug-19-09 03:25 PM   #40 
                             - WPE is no standard at all.  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:27 PM   #44 
                    - Too time-consuming to respond to all this but...  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:10 AM   #37 
                       - There can be no stuffing of votes?  WillE   Aug-19-09 02:52 PM   #39 
                          - You think Open Source means Hand Counted or what?  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:02 PM   #43 
                             - : Let’s summarize an analysis of the facts. Warning: slow load.  WillE   Aug-21-09 03:28 PM   #46 
                                - "slow load"?! (snark redacted)  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-21-09 07:37 PM   #47 
                                - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:51 PM   #54 
                                - Finally, something about Voting Systems!  Bill Bored   Aug-21-09 10:35 PM   #48 
                                   - More red flags! Average NY WPE: Bush 8.0 (1988,1992,2004); Clinton 0.6 (1996, 2000)  WillE   Aug-23-09 10:38 AM   #49 
                                      - Bush was running for reelection in 1988?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 12:03 PM   #50 
                                         - You need to take an algebra class  WillE   Aug-23-09 01:56 PM   #51 
                                            - oh, brother  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:46 PM   #52 
                                               - Deleted message  Name removed   Aug-23-09 05:38 PM   #55 
                                               - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 06:02 PM   #56 
                                               - 1 was wrong. You were right. I know Bush was VP. Address the wpe anomaly  WillE   Aug-23-09 07:59 PM   #57 
                                               - I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend.  WillE   Aug-24-09 07:20 AM   #58 
                                               - "I was essentially correct in my prior analysis." You were? And TIA?  Wilms   Aug-24-09 09:09 AM   #59 
                                               - "Hell, let’s be honest: it’s impossible."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 09:37 AM   #60 
                                               - There is much to refute here, but it's very easy to do. Just watch.  WillE   Aug-24-09 12:09 PM   #61 
                                               - it's boring to correct you over, and over, and over again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 12:43 PM   #62 
                                               - That was a truly weak response - as expected  WillE   Aug-24-09 02:32 PM   #63 
                                               - "Kerry won ALL three exit polls"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 02:54 PM   #64 
                                               - Here's a NY 2004 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis. Did you ever do one?  WillE   Aug-24-09 04:17 PM   #65 
                                               - all this is facially silly  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:00 PM   #66 
                                               - What's incredulous is your faith-based jargon and avoidance of analytical thought.  WillE   Aug-24-09 05:31 PM   #67 
                                               - "Now I know how Galileo felt."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:38 PM   #68 
                                               - If you used exit polls in your "analysis " it was to thrash them n/t  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:02 PM   #71 
                                               - spoken like, yes, a fundamentalist  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 07:59 AM   #74 
                                               - Better things to do? Yes! Tell us how many lever machines would have to be HACKED to account for...  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 09:35 PM   #69 
                                               - See post #49  WillE   Aug-24-09 09:59 PM   #70 
                                               - This is not about "trusting exit polls" . It's about considering ALL the evidence...  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:16 PM   #72 
                                               - How many machines was that again? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 11:21 PM   #73 
                                               - for your convenience...  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 10:12 AM   #75 
                                               - Thanks for bringing all this back in full view again  WillE   Aug-25-09 04:55 PM   #76 
                                               - "Do you have any proof that they weren't?"  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 06:02 PM   #77 
                                               - I accept your recession  WillE   Aug-25-09 08:26 PM   #78 
                                               - yeah, well  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 09:03 PM   #79 
                                               - No, I'm still here :)  Febble   Aug-26-09 05:30 PM   #80 
                 - wanna play "Urban Legend"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-15-09 02:14 PM   #23 
                    - This will not make your day. It will spoil it.  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:19 PM   #28 
                       - you just aren't very good at analysis, apparently  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 01:51 PM   #29 
                          - Your disinformation campaign rolls on  WillE   Aug-18-09 03:56 PM   #30 
                             - sigh  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 04:54 PM   #31 
                                - Mr. Other, you have been exposed  WillE   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #32 
                                   - uh, no  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 07:47 PM   #34 
                                      - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:50 PM   #53 
        - CORRECTION TO LATE NY PAPER VOTES; EXIT POLL COMPARISONS  WillE   Sep-01-09 07:12 PM   #145 
           - 4.5 years and you're still making "corrections". That's inspiring. n/t  Wilms   Sep-01-09 08:51 PM   #146 
              - You never have to correct a thing. Cuz you never do analysis. Very uninspiring.  WillE   Sep-01-09 10:24 PM   #147 
  - ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##  DU GrovelBot   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #33 
  - Well, we're gonna let an exit poll define your programming. OK, Grov?  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:29 PM   #36 
  - The reality is we have had GOP election theft for decades . . . with complicity of corporate press .  defendandprotect   Aug-21-09 02:12 AM   #45 
     - Election Fraud is endemic. These TIA graphs debunk all the Disinfo.  WillE   Aug-27-09 12:17 PM   #81 
        - TIA FAQ: whined about, but never refuted  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 12:32 PM   #82 
           - You concede when all you can do you is cherry-pick  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:31 PM   #83 
           - I didn't cherrypick  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:15 PM   #85 
           - He refuted it in spades  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:43 PM   #84 
              - nope  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:30 PM   #86 
              - No point in trying to discuss? Of course, because you can't.  WillE   Aug-27-09 03:45 PM   #87 
                 - what point have I not responded to? be specific  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 04:07 PM   #88 
                    - Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.  WillE   Aug-27-09 06:45 PM   #89 
                       - trash talk aside, you're wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 09:04 PM   #90 
                       - You conveniently ignore the analysis which refutes you  WillE   Aug-28-09 12:05 AM   #92 
                          - And I thought electronic vote counting schema was a pretty iffy way to determine outcomes.  Wilms   Aug-28-09 12:33 AM   #93 
                          - Distracted? Uh, this is a thread about why we should trust computers to count votes in NY, right? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-28-09 07:31 PM   #97 
                          - you're simply misrepresenting the PA exit polls  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 06:10 AM   #94 
                       - A FREE online book about Kerry's 2004 landslide  WillE   Aug-27-09 10:22 PM   #91 
              - TIA FAQ Response Summary Update - Includes 2008 reference  WillE   Aug-28-09 08:09 AM   #95 
                 - my double dog dare stands n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 09:26 AM   #96 
                    - The analysis that you won't do proves you dead wrong once again. Your move...  WillE   Aug-29-09 09:19 AM   #98 
                       - sorry, you're still pwned  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 10:11 AM   #99 
                          - Your myths vs. the facts. Now show us your cherry-picked PA LV polls  WillE   Aug-29-09 11:33 AM   #100 
                             - Hmmm. "true activists are winning" you say.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 11:55 AM   #101 
                             - Show us your numbers and stop whining!  WillE   Aug-29-09 12:07 PM   #102 
                             - I'm whinning.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 12:17 PM   #104 
                                - Take your pick. Column A or Column B? Steak or Pork?  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:20 PM   #105 
                                   - Analysis is anything but black and white.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 02:31 PM   #106 
                                      - HS Litmis test?I have no problem with your having a problem...  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:04 PM   #108 
                             - It's time for you to recognize some facts.....  WillE   Aug-30-09 01:44 AM   #115 
                                - Gimme an example.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 02:07 AM   #116 
                                   - Strawman. You avoid my question and are putting words in my mouth.  WillE   Aug-30-09 02:19 AM   #117 
                                      - Don't be silly! Activism was a result of the radical Bush regime and FL 2000.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 03:25 AM   #118 
                                         - Activism was muted in 2001; it became widespread in Nov. 2004  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:58 AM   #119 
                                            - Ah, but most Dems in Congress voted FOR HAVA! They considered themselves to be reformers!  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 08:46 PM   #120 
                                               - You just don 't get it, do you?  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:41 PM   #121 
                                                  - You're still not listening. And may well never.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:12 PM   #122 
                                                  - You avoid the content of the post.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:34 PM   #125 
                                                  - Human Miscounts?  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:00 AM   #134 
                                                  - I don't CARE what the polls say. They are just polls -- not voting systems.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:17 PM   #123 
                                                     - In fact, where are all the true-believers?  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:28 PM   #124 
                                                     - Now it is clear...  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:45 PM   #127 
                                                     - I have no troops.  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:03 AM   #135 
                                                     - You really DO have blinders on.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:42 PM   #126 
                                                     - You wrote: "No one is contesting that the levers are accurate." Good! Then my work here is done.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:46 PM   #128 
                                                     - No, your work has just started..  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:11 PM   #129 
                                                     - Didn't Bush run in 2000?  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:22 PM   #131 
                                                     - Bush was NOT the incumbent in 2k. He was in '04. He had means, motive and opportunity.  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:35 PM   #132 
                                                     - Welp, at least we agree that it is a ...  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:51 PM   #133 
                                                     - but, WillE,  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:16 AM   #137 
                                                     - You either don't read or you quickly forget: Motive. Means. Opportunity  WillE   Aug-31-09 06:53 AM   #139 
                                                     - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:36 AM   #141 
                                                     - of course he can "have it both ways" -- think about it  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:06 AM   #136 
                                                     - You want to talk about "blind faith"? OK.  WillE   Aug-31-09 07:29 AM   #140 
                                                     - darling, you're in a panic  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:57 AM   #142 
                                                     - Show us YOUR numbers. Here is the NY True Vote analysis you WON'T DARE do.  WillE   Aug-31-09 08:59 AM   #143 
                                                     - as usual, you have no counter to ANY of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 09:31 AM   #144 
                                                     - You really *are* an optimist!!! n/t  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:20 PM   #130 
                             - you didn't respond to any of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 12:16 PM   #103 
                                - As usual, you are a no show  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:53 PM   #107 
                                   - care to try again in English?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 03:21 PM   #109 
                                      - Now about those LVs and Rvs- you have shown us NADA  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:54 PM   #110 
                                         - JIm Lampley on Bradblog in 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 04:40 PM   #111 
                                         - Must Listen! Jim Lampley of HBO on Bradblog in May 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 06:05 PM   #113 
                                            - I recall that interview. Was very happy to hear it.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 06:48 PM   #114 
                                            - here's an interesting part  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:19 AM   #138 
                                         - no, you haven't  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 04:56 PM   #112 
 

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