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Reply #28: This will not make your day. It will spoil it. [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Aug-18-09 01:19 PM
Response to Reply #23
28. This will not make your day. It will spoil it.




You attempted to discredit the original Urban Legend analysis as soon at it was presented. It was not unexpected. Thats what you do.

Crappy charts, eh? Love your choice of words. Quite revealing as to your state of mind. It is so you, OTOH. Smarmy. Nasty. Unprofessional. Not very nice.

I can understand why you dont want me to include the links. They illustrate the facts too clearly. Not surprising you would want to avoid the facts at all cost even if it means calling them crappy. Thats what you do.

I will link to them since they refute your case just like Michael Collins (autorank) did when the Urban Legend myth was exposed on DU:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Let me remind you that the official Bush county vote shares were inflated across the state. The official data is all we have since the exit pollsters (i.e. the mainstream media) refuse to release unadjusted exit poll precinct data.

Although we dont have the TRUE county vote for 2000 and 2004, we have enough information to work with - the bogus recorded county vote.

The vote changes are based on the reported official Election Day votes; they do not include late votes. The recorded (LEVER) votes were NOT contaminated by the 500,000 late (PAPER BALLOT) votes.

The strong 0.61correlation between the percentage change in the Bush recorded county vote from 2000 and population size proves his vote was inflated in urban (Democratic) counties. What does the strong correlation tell you?

On the other hand, there was a weak .07 correlation between the percentage change in the Kerry recorded county vote (from Gore in 2000) and population size. What does the lack of correlation tell you?

Were Kerry votes uncounted and Bush votes stuffed - or was it a combination of both?

Image

As a political scientist, I assume you would have a plausible explanation(s).
And that is what the Urban Legend is all about, isnt it?


OTOH, refute the NY county Lever vote/population size correlation analysis.
In other words, go ahead and try once again to debunk the Urban Legend study.

NY STATE COUNTY-SIZE / VOTE CHANGE CORRELATION

Correlation of county recorded vote to...

Change in Bush margin: 0.57 (strong)

Bush percentage vote gain: 0.61 (strong)
Kerry percentage vote gain: .07 (none)
Nader percentage vote loss: -0.23 (small)

Bush vote gain: 0.92 (almost perfect)
Kerry vote gain: 0.69 (strong)
Nader vote loss: -0.94 (almost perfect negative)


And now lets link to the corresponding crappy graphs.

As the old saying goes: None are so blind as those who will not see.
Do you dare look?
It may hurt you to look but it could help others.

Recorded vote change for the largest 15 NY counties
Image

County size and Bush percentage vote increase
Image

2000/2004 National Exit Poll vote share changes by location-size
Image

According to the Preliminary 2004 National Exit Poll (9pm, 11027 respondents), Bushs rural vote share declined 6% from 59% in 2000 to 53% in 2004. You believe the NEP at this timeline was bogus. OK.

Consider the Final 2004 NEP, which was FORCED TO MATCH the recorded vote: Bushs rural vote share declined from 59% to 56%!

OTOH, you must believe the Final since you have always claimed, contrary to all the evidence that Bush won the popular vote, even if he may not have in Ohio although you dont think he did. Tell that to Richard Hayes Phillips.

An unbiased observer would expect that if the New York 2004 unadjusted state exit poll was released, it would show that Bush lost vote shares in counties other than just Columbia County.

Now if any DUers show up who agree with this analysis, dont go accusing them of not reading or understanding it. You understand it. But as sure as the sum will rise tomorrow, you will try to denigrate it. Thats what you do, Mr. Other. Inquiring minds want to know: Why all the effort?

OTOH, IM SORRY IF I HAVE SPOILED YOUR DAY.
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