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Reply #14: A response and some questions for you [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-14-09 04:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
14.  A response and some questions for you
Edited on Fri Aug-14-09 05:21 PM by WillE
First, questions for you:

Based on ALL the evidence accumulated, statistical and anecdotal, do you believe that Bush won the 2004 election fairly?
If the answer is YES, please state why you have come to this conclusion.
If the answer is NO, then you must also agree that the unadjusted and preliminary state AND national exit polls were essentially correct, since they indicated that Kerry won by 3-5%.

If the answer is NO, then since the aggregate national WPE was 7% and the NY WPE 11%, you must also agree that there is an extremely HIGH probability that the NY votes were miscounted by humans who had access to the Lever machines and/or by machine failure.

Now to answer your questions:

1) Do you think that would be a lot of trouble and risk just to pad the popular vote?

What Risk? Bushco owned the Justice Department. Im sure you know all about the firing of Republican prosecutors who would pursue real GOP fraud and not bogus, trumped up Democratic voter fraud.

2) While it's likely Bushco would want to cut Kerry's popular vote, what evidence do you have that Kerry would have been less at risk with even the mythical HCPB the lever machines replaced, let alone the optical scan that would replace them?

There was only ONE state among ALL the strong Democratic and Battleground states in which the recorded vote was within the exit poll margin of error - Oregon. It also happens to be the ONLY 100% PAPER BALLOT state (mail).

3) Are you aware of the details of NY's transition from HCPB to lever machines?

No, but I know that the levers have been around for 100 years.

4) What gives you the impression that the state would broadly institute hand counts?

I have no such impression. Why should the Lever machine establishment want to spoil a good thing/

5) Is it possible the exit poll is wrong?

I assume you mean the NY exit poll. Remember it was just one of many.
Yes, the Final Exit Poll was wrong; it was matched to the recorded vote count.
No, the unadjusted exit poll was correct (as were the adjusted Best GEO and Composite at 12:40am)

Now, how do you define wrong? If by wrong you mean could it be off by the 2% margin of error, yes it could - the probability is only 5%.

But the Best GEO NY exit poll (Kerry had 65%) deviated 6.5% from the recorded vote (58.5-65%). Could it be off by 6.5%? That is so far beyond the MoE that the probability is effectively ZERO. The answer is obviously NO.

6) Is it possible, in a Dem leaning state, that provisional ballots break disproportionally for the Dem candidate?

It depends on the partisanship mix of the precincts the ballots were coming from. Unless you can prove that there is a consistent late vote bias in favor of the Democrats, you must assume otherwise. In 2008, the 580,000 absentee and provisional late ballots comprised a large sample of the 7.6 million total. It is extremely unlikely that the sample was not a fair representation.

Assuming that the Late votes were a fair sample of the NY voting population, then the probability of the 8.7 % differential between Obamas Late vote (70.7%) vote share and his Election Day share (62%) is effectively ZERO.

7) Can you explain what "stuck on Bush" means in detail?
See the EIRS reports below.

8) Can you express in fractional or percentage terms, the nineteen machines (and the other EIRS reported failures) in relation to the total number of machines in the state?

NYC had 89% of the 175 REPORTED voting machine incidents but only 37% of the 5703 state precincts. There was a STRONG 0.55 correlation between county voting machine incidents and the corresponding increase in Bush vote share from 2000.





2004 EIRS: 19 Stuck Lever Incidents (note that ALL were in heavily Democratic NYC precinctcs)

1) 28456 141 Machon Street JHS 258
Only one machine in polling place and its STUCK ON REPUBLICAN, they're giving out envelope that says "affidavit oath", no list of candidates

2) 28554 PS 58, Macon Street Brooklyn
Radio report--minister called in that the machine is broken and ONLY TAKING THE REPUBLICAN side of the vote; report came on the radio 2x while on the phone

3) 28715 PS 306, Wortman & Cozine Ave.
Machine is LOCKED ON THE REPUBLICAN side

4) 29919 PS 306, Vermont Ave.
One of the machines was STUCK ON THE REPUBLICANS. The other machine was only for voters A-L. They disenfranchised anyone whose name was not through A-L. Did vote in the end because last name starts with B.

5) 30394 PS 258 JHS - 141 Macon Street
Machines STUCK SO ONLY REPUBLICANS COULD BE VOTED FOR, told people to go back rather than hand out emergency ballot

6) 33002 PS 126 , 424 Leonard Street
Voter reported that SOMETHING WAS WRONG WITH THE LITTLE LEVER FOR THE DEMOCRATIC Presidential candidate's slot at Polling Machine serial number: 91204. She said that lots of voters complained that the lever did not properly click down.

7) 34442 Taylor White Community Center
THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WASN'T WORKING --- could only vote for president. This is what she was told regarding the ability to vote along party line. She said she will return later to see if fixed.

8) 39120 - SWITCH FOR DEMOCRATIC AND GREEN CANDIDATES WOULDN'T FUNCTION CORRECTLY but other parties would work, officials did offer paper ballots.

9) 33516 New York PS 199 270 west 70th street 2004-11-02 07:57:10 PSTLEVERS WERE BROKEN FOR CERTAIN PARTY LINE, they did not give him emergency ballot because they didn't know which one to give the voter. The voter cast vote for all other candidates. (only specific section of party line was broken).

10) 37472 New York PS 158 11/2/2004; 1:15 pm 2004-11-02 10:31:55 PST Machine problem for voters A-L NO LEVER FOR VP CANDIDATE on DEMOCRATIC side.

11) 33495 ps 158 46-35 oceania st
THE JOHN KERRY CHAD WAS HARD TO PUNCH. None of the other chads for the democratic party candidates were hard to punch.

12) 28481 Bronx PS 50 173rd and Bryant Avenue 6:40 2004-11-02 04:02:36 PST
Tyrek said that other voters in line told him that the MACHINES WERE STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN". The line was not moving at all and he did not see whether paper ballots were being passed out to voters. He had to go to work so he left the polling place.

13) 28965 Bronx 11/2/2008 7:30 2004-11-02 04:32:37 PST
MACHINE STUCK IN BUSH/CHENEY POSITION - was allowed to cast paper ballot

14) 31417 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue; 11/02/04--7:30 a.m. 06:39:20 PST
Voting machine: only one machine for the 8th district at the location; THE MACHINE WAS STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters couldn't vote unless they were Republican. One of the police officers there looked at the machine and tried to "unstick" it, but was not successful. Voter is concerned that the paper ballots will not get counted, or will be lost.

15) 29968 Bronx PS 50 Rice Ave 2004-11-02 05:29:28 PST
MACHINE ONLY SET FOR REPUBLICANS, could not vote any other way

16) 30579 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue 11/2/04 at 7 am 2004-11-02 06:01:12 PST
MACHINE STUCK ON REPUBLICAN; Gave paper ballots; Voter suspects it was a provisional --rather than an emergency ballot.

17) 39075 Bronx PS. 50, crotona park east 2004-11-02 11:46:17 PST
Individual reports news reports of machine irregular; DEMOCRATIC LEVELS MALFUNCTIONING.

18) 33077 Bronx County PS 105, White Plains Road 2004-11-02 07:42:17 PST
Machine is NOT BEING RE-SET for each voter; the machine REMAINS ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters have not been able to vote for other parties. The pol lworkers said that they cannot adjust the machine because it will jam.

19) 32390 Bronx PS 50 1550 Vyse Ave 7:05 2004-11-02 07:15:06 PST
Went at 7:05; was told that 6 MACHINES "WERE LOCKED ON REPUBLICAN"
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