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Reply #14: A response and some questions for you [View All]

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WillE Donating Member (150 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-14-09 03:26 PM
Response to Reply #10
14.  A response and some questions for you
Edited on Fri Aug-14-09 04:21 PM by WillE
First, questions for you:

Based on ALL the evidence accumulated, statistical and anecdotal, do you believe that Bush won the 2004 election fairly?
If the answer is YES, please state why you have come to this conclusion.
If the answer is NO, then you must also agree that the unadjusted and preliminary state AND national exit polls were essentially correct, since they indicated that Kerry won by 3-5%.

If the answer is NO, then since the aggregate national WPE was 7% and the NY WPE 11%, you must also agree that there is an extremely HIGH probability that the NY votes were miscounted by humans who had access to the Lever machines and/or by machine failure.

Now to answer your questions:

1) Do you think that would be a lot of trouble and risk just to pad the popular vote?

What Risk? Bushco owned the Justice Department. Im sure you know all about the firing of Republican prosecutors who would pursue real GOP fraud and not bogus, trumped up Democratic voter fraud.

2) While it's likely Bushco would want to cut Kerry's popular vote, what evidence do you have that Kerry would have been less at risk with even the mythical HCPB the lever machines replaced, let alone the optical scan that would replace them?

There was only ONE state among ALL the strong Democratic and Battleground states in which the recorded vote was within the exit poll margin of error - Oregon. It also happens to be the ONLY 100% PAPER BALLOT state (mail).

3) Are you aware of the details of NY's transition from HCPB to lever machines?

No, but I know that the levers have been around for 100 years.

4) What gives you the impression that the state would broadly institute hand counts?

I have no such impression. Why should the Lever machine establishment want to spoil a good thing/

5) Is it possible the exit poll is wrong?

I assume you mean the NY exit poll. Remember it was just one of many.
Yes, the Final Exit Poll was wrong; it was matched to the recorded vote count.
No, the unadjusted exit poll was correct (as were the adjusted Best GEO and Composite at 12:40am)

Now, how do you define wrong? If by wrong you mean could it be off by the 2% margin of error, yes it could - the probability is only 5%.

But the Best GEO NY exit poll (Kerry had 65%) deviated 6.5% from the recorded vote (58.5-65%). Could it be off by 6.5%? That is so far beyond the MoE that the probability is effectively ZERO. The answer is obviously NO.

6) Is it possible, in a Dem leaning state, that provisional ballots break disproportionally for the Dem candidate?

It depends on the partisanship mix of the precincts the ballots were coming from. Unless you can prove that there is a consistent late vote bias in favor of the Democrats, you must assume otherwise. In 2008, the 580,000 absentee and provisional late ballots comprised a large sample of the 7.6 million total. It is extremely unlikely that the sample was not a fair representation.

Assuming that the Late votes were a fair sample of the NY voting population, then the probability of the 8.7 % differential between Obamas Late vote (70.7%) vote share and his Election Day share (62%) is effectively ZERO.

7) Can you explain what "stuck on Bush" means in detail?
See the EIRS reports below.

8) Can you express in fractional or percentage terms, the nineteen machines (and the other EIRS reported failures) in relation to the total number of machines in the state?

NYC had 89% of the 175 REPORTED voting machine incidents but only 37% of the 5703 state precincts. There was a STRONG 0.55 correlation between county voting machine incidents and the corresponding increase in Bush vote share from 2000.





2004 EIRS: 19 Stuck Lever Incidents (note that ALL were in heavily Democratic NYC precinctcs)

1) 28456 141 Machon Street JHS 258
Only one machine in polling place and its STUCK ON REPUBLICAN, they're giving out envelope that says "affidavit oath", no list of candidates

2) 28554 PS 58, Macon Street Brooklyn
Radio report--minister called in that the machine is broken and ONLY TAKING THE REPUBLICAN side of the vote; report came on the radio 2x while on the phone

3) 28715 PS 306, Wortman & Cozine Ave.
Machine is LOCKED ON THE REPUBLICAN side

4) 29919 PS 306, Vermont Ave.
One of the machines was STUCK ON THE REPUBLICANS. The other machine was only for voters A-L. They disenfranchised anyone whose name was not through A-L. Did vote in the end because last name starts with B.

5) 30394 PS 258 JHS - 141 Macon Street
Machines STUCK SO ONLY REPUBLICANS COULD BE VOTED FOR, told people to go back rather than hand out emergency ballot

6) 33002 PS 126 , 424 Leonard Street
Voter reported that SOMETHING WAS WRONG WITH THE LITTLE LEVER FOR THE DEMOCRATIC Presidential candidate's slot at Polling Machine serial number: 91204. She said that lots of voters complained that the lever did not properly click down.

7) 34442 Taylor White Community Center
THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE WASN'T WORKING --- could only vote for president. This is what she was told regarding the ability to vote along party line. She said she will return later to see if fixed.

8) 39120 - SWITCH FOR DEMOCRATIC AND GREEN CANDIDATES WOULDN'T FUNCTION CORRECTLY but other parties would work, officials did offer paper ballots.

9) 33516 New York PS 199 270 west 70th street 2004-11-02 07:57:10 PSTLEVERS WERE BROKEN FOR CERTAIN PARTY LINE, they did not give him emergency ballot because they didn't know which one to give the voter. The voter cast vote for all other candidates. (only specific section of party line was broken).

10) 37472 New York PS 158 11/2/2004; 1:15 pm 2004-11-02 10:31:55 PST Machine problem for voters A-L NO LEVER FOR VP CANDIDATE on DEMOCRATIC side.

11) 33495 ps 158 46-35 oceania st
THE JOHN KERRY CHAD WAS HARD TO PUNCH. None of the other chads for the democratic party candidates were hard to punch.

12) 28481 Bronx PS 50 173rd and Bryant Avenue 6:40 2004-11-02 04:02:36 PST
Tyrek said that other voters in line told him that the MACHINES WERE STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN". The line was not moving at all and he did not see whether paper ballots were being passed out to voters. He had to go to work so he left the polling place.

13) 28965 Bronx 11/2/2008 7:30 2004-11-02 04:32:37 PST
MACHINE STUCK IN BUSH/CHENEY POSITION - was allowed to cast paper ballot

14) 31417 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue; 11/02/04--7:30 a.m. 06:39:20 PST
Voting machine: only one machine for the 8th district at the location; THE MACHINE WAS STUCK ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters couldn't vote unless they were Republican. One of the police officers there looked at the machine and tried to "unstick" it, but was not successful. Voter is concerned that the paper ballots will not get counted, or will be lost.

15) 29968 Bronx PS 50 Rice Ave 2004-11-02 05:29:28 PST
MACHINE ONLY SET FOR REPUBLICANS, could not vote any other way

16) 30579 Bronx 3410 Dereimer Avenue 11/2/04 at 7 am 2004-11-02 06:01:12 PST
MACHINE STUCK ON REPUBLICAN; Gave paper ballots; Voter suspects it was a provisional --rather than an emergency ballot.

17) 39075 Bronx PS. 50, crotona park east 2004-11-02 11:46:17 PST
Individual reports news reports of machine irregular; DEMOCRATIC LEVELS MALFUNCTIONING.

18) 33077 Bronx County PS 105, White Plains Road 2004-11-02 07:42:17 PST
Machine is NOT BEING RE-SET for each voter; the machine REMAINS ON "REPUBLICAN" and voters have not been able to vote for other parties. The pol lworkers said that they cannot adjust the machine because it will jam.

19) 32390 Bronx PS 50 1550 Vyse Ave 7:05 2004-11-02 07:15:06 PST
Went at 7:05; was told that 6 MACHINES "WERE LOCKED ON REPUBLICAN"
________________________________________________________________________
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  -NY: Computer Tallies Can't be Trusted Wilms  Jul-26-09 09:57 PM   #0 
  - Its not that an accurate reliable machine can't be built....it's just easier to hide the fraud by...  yourout   Jul-26-09 10:17 PM   #1 
  - the risk is more limited with Lever, whereas with computer  WillYourVoteBCounted   Jul-26-09 11:28 PM   #2 
  - Important for NYers  clear eye   Jul-27-09 03:44 AM   #3 
  - New York Anomalies: 19 Levers stuck on Bush, none on Kerry (EIRS)  WillE   Aug-12-09 11:55 AM   #4 
  - So are you saying computer tallies CAN BE TRUSTED then?  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:14 PM   #5 
  - Oh, and maybe you can explain how 19 broken machines out of 7,000 in NYC...  Bill Bored   Aug-12-09 02:46 PM   #6 
     - You have avoided the facts presented in the post and appear quite defensive.  WillE   Aug-13-09 12:22 PM   #7 
        - Damn right I'm defensive! Here's why:  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 12:57 PM   #8 
        - Define Dem Share  Bill Bored   Aug-13-09 01:22 PM   #9 
        - Do you think that would be a lot of trouble and risk just to pad the popular vote?  Wilms   Aug-13-09 10:46 PM   #10 
        - 580,000 NY late votes; analysis of incidents, county size, Urban Legendand a response  WillE   Aug-14-09 11:57 AM   #11 
        - Everyone knows the problem, at issue is which is worse?  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-14-09 01:36 PM   #12 
        - Sorry, but you DO have to explain HOW the machines could have miscounted so many votes.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 01:48 PM   #13 
           - Sorry to waste your time with facts  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:52 PM   #15 
              - Are you going to answer my question or not?: How many lever machines had to be hacked...  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 04:23 PM   #16 
        - A response and some questions for you  WillE   Aug-14-09 03:26 PM   #14 
           - well, there you go: unsupported dogma  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-14-09 04:24 PM   #17 
           - These reports sound like a Primary with separate Dem and Repub machines.  Bill Bored   Aug-14-09 07:44 PM   #18 
           - Thanks for using the word "believe". That's honest. Belief, while limited, is all we have.  Wilms   Aug-14-09 11:30 PM   #19 
              - Your comments indicate some confusion and a touch of desperation  WillE   Aug-15-09 12:17 PM   #20 
                 - Confusion? Projection?  Wilms   Aug-15-09 01:25 PM   #21 
                 - The raw data show that Bush didn't do better compared to 2000 in the precincts with the largest WPE.  Bill Bored   Aug-15-09 01:54 PM   #22 
                 - : Motive, Means, and Opportunity  WillE   Aug-17-09 01:52 PM   #24 
                    - I guess I'll stick to one or two odd claims per post  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-17-09 03:38 PM   #25 
                    - Oooooo!  WillYourVoteBCounted   Aug-20-09 01:57 AM   #41 
                       - the scary thing is, he still hasn't figured it out  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-20-09 05:31 AM   #42 
                    - Who said levers were "fraud proof"? Other than you claiming someone did, that is?  Wilms   Aug-17-09 10:57 PM   #26 
                    - The HNYVA of 1892  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:01 PM   #27 
                       - HCPB zombies don't seem to realize HCPB is not on the menu.  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:27 PM   #35 
                       - No paper trail? How about NO RECOUNTS?  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:39 AM   #38 
                          - Levers are the gold standard with an 11% WPE?  WillE   Aug-19-09 03:25 PM   #40 
                             - WPE is no standard at all.  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:27 PM   #44 
                    - Too time-consuming to respond to all this but...  Bill Bored   Aug-19-09 12:10 AM   #37 
                       - There can be no stuffing of votes?  WillE   Aug-19-09 02:52 PM   #39 
                          - You think Open Source means Hand Counted or what?  Bill Bored   Aug-20-09 11:02 PM   #43 
                             - : Lets summarize an analysis of the facts. Warning: slow load.  WillE   Aug-21-09 03:28 PM   #46 
                                - "slow load"?! (snark redacted)  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-21-09 07:37 PM   #47 
                                - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:51 PM   #54 
                                - Finally, something about Voting Systems!  Bill Bored   Aug-21-09 10:35 PM   #48 
                                   - More red flags! Average NY WPE: Bush 8.0 (1988,1992,2004); Clinton 0.6 (1996, 2000)  WillE   Aug-23-09 10:38 AM   #49 
                                      - Bush was running for reelection in 1988?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 12:03 PM   #50 
                                         - You need to take an algebra class  WillE   Aug-23-09 01:56 PM   #51 
                                            - oh, brother  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:46 PM   #52 
                                               - Deleted message  Name removed   Aug-23-09 05:38 PM   #55 
                                               - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 06:02 PM   #56 
                                               - 1 was wrong. You were right. I know Bush was VP. Address the wpe anomaly  WillE   Aug-23-09 07:59 PM   #57 
                                               - I take that back. Another look at the top 15 NY counties and the Urban Legend.  WillE   Aug-24-09 07:20 AM   #58 
                                               - "I was essentially correct in my prior analysis." You were? And TIA?  Wilms   Aug-24-09 09:09 AM   #59 
                                               - "Hell, lets be honest: its impossible."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 09:37 AM   #60 
                                               - There is much to refute here, but it's very easy to do. Just watch.  WillE   Aug-24-09 12:09 PM   #61 
                                               - it's boring to correct you over, and over, and over again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 12:43 PM   #62 
                                               - That was a truly weak response - as expected  WillE   Aug-24-09 02:32 PM   #63 
                                               - "Kerry won ALL three exit polls"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 02:54 PM   #64 
                                               - Here's a NY 2004 True Vote Sensitivity Analysis. Did you ever do one?  WillE   Aug-24-09 04:17 PM   #65 
                                               - all this is facially silly  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:00 PM   #66 
                                               - What's incredulous is your faith-based jargon and avoidance of analytical thought.  WillE   Aug-24-09 05:31 PM   #67 
                                               - "Now I know how Galileo felt."  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-24-09 05:38 PM   #68 
                                               - If you used exit polls in your "analysis " it was to thrash them n/t  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:02 PM   #71 
                                               - spoken like, yes, a fundamentalist  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 07:59 AM   #74 
                                               - Better things to do? Yes! Tell us how many lever machines would have to be HACKED to account for...  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 09:35 PM   #69 
                                               - See post #49  WillE   Aug-24-09 09:59 PM   #70 
                                               - This is not about "trusting exit polls" . It's about considering ALL the evidence...  WillE   Aug-24-09 10:16 PM   #72 
                                               - How many machines was that again? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-24-09 11:21 PM   #73 
                                               - for your convenience...  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 10:12 AM   #75 
                                               - Thanks for bringing all this back in full view again  WillE   Aug-25-09 04:55 PM   #76 
                                               - "Do you have any proof that they weren't?"  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 06:02 PM   #77 
                                               - I accept your recession  WillE   Aug-25-09 08:26 PM   #78 
                                               - yeah, well  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-25-09 09:03 PM   #79 
                                               - No, I'm still here :)  Febble   Aug-26-09 05:30 PM   #80 
                 - wanna play "Urban Legend"?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-15-09 02:14 PM   #23 
                    - This will not make your day. It will spoil it.  WillE   Aug-18-09 12:19 PM   #28 
                       - you just aren't very good at analysis, apparently  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 01:51 PM   #29 
                          - Your disinformation campaign rolls on  WillE   Aug-18-09 03:56 PM   #30 
                             - sigh  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 04:54 PM   #31 
                                - Mr. Other, you have been exposed  WillE   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #32 
                                   - uh, no  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-18-09 07:47 PM   #34 
                                      - (crickets) n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-23-09 03:50 PM   #53 
        - CORRECTION TO LATE NY PAPER VOTES; EXIT POLL COMPARISONS  WillE   Sep-01-09 07:12 PM   #145 
           - 4.5 years and you're still making "corrections". That's inspiring. n/t  Wilms   Sep-01-09 08:51 PM   #146 
              - You never have to correct a thing. Cuz you never do analysis. Very uninspiring.  WillE   Sep-01-09 10:24 PM   #147 
  - ## PLEASE DONATE TO DEMOCRATIC UNDERGROUND! ##  DU GrovelBot   Aug-18-09 05:34 PM   #33 
  - Well, we're gonna let an exit poll define your programming. OK, Grov?  Wilms   Aug-18-09 10:29 PM   #36 
  - The reality is we have had GOP election theft for decades . . . with complicity of corporate press .  defendandprotect   Aug-21-09 02:12 AM   #45 
     - Election Fraud is endemic. These TIA graphs debunk all the Disinfo.  WillE   Aug-27-09 12:17 PM   #81 
        - TIA FAQ: whined about, but never refuted  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 12:32 PM   #82 
           - You concede when all you can do you is cherry-pick  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:31 PM   #83 
           - I didn't cherrypick  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:15 PM   #85 
           - He refuted it in spades  WillE   Aug-27-09 01:43 PM   #84 
              - nope  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 02:30 PM   #86 
              - No point in trying to discuss? Of course, because you can't.  WillE   Aug-27-09 03:45 PM   #87 
                 - what point have I not responded to? be specific  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 04:07 PM   #88 
                    - Once again, you are hoisted on your own petard.  WillE   Aug-27-09 06:45 PM   #89 
                       - trash talk aside, you're wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-27-09 09:04 PM   #90 
                       - You conveniently ignore the analysis which refutes you  WillE   Aug-28-09 12:05 AM   #92 
                          - And I thought electronic vote counting schema was a pretty iffy way to determine outcomes.  Wilms   Aug-28-09 12:33 AM   #93 
                          - Distracted? Uh, this is a thread about why we should trust computers to count votes in NY, right? nt  Bill Bored   Aug-28-09 07:31 PM   #97 
                          - you're simply misrepresenting the PA exit polls  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 06:10 AM   #94 
                       - A FREE online book about Kerry's 2004 landslide  WillE   Aug-27-09 10:22 PM   #91 
              - TIA FAQ Response Summary Update - Includes 2008 reference  WillE   Aug-28-09 08:09 AM   #95 
                 - my double dog dare stands n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-28-09 09:26 AM   #96 
                    - The analysis that you won't do proves you dead wrong once again. Your move...  WillE   Aug-29-09 09:19 AM   #98 
                       - sorry, you're still pwned  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 10:11 AM   #99 
                          - Your myths vs. the facts. Now show us your cherry-picked PA LV polls  WillE   Aug-29-09 11:33 AM   #100 
                             - Hmmm. "true activists are winning" you say.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 11:55 AM   #101 
                             - Show us your numbers and stop whining!  WillE   Aug-29-09 12:07 PM   #102 
                             - I'm whinning.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 12:17 PM   #104 
                                - Take your pick. Column A or Column B? Steak or Pork?  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:20 PM   #105 
                                   - Analysis is anything but black and white.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 02:31 PM   #106 
                                      - HS Litmis test?I have no problem with your having a problem...  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:04 PM   #108 
                             - It's time for you to recognize some facts.....  WillE   Aug-30-09 01:44 AM   #115 
                                - Gimme an example.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 02:07 AM   #116 
                                   - Strawman. You avoid my question and are putting words in my mouth.  WillE   Aug-30-09 02:19 AM   #117 
                                      - Don't be silly! Activism was a result of the radical Bush regime and FL 2000.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 03:25 AM   #118 
                                         - Activism was muted in 2001; it became widespread in Nov. 2004  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:58 AM   #119 
                                            - Ah, but most Dems in Congress voted FOR HAVA! They considered themselves to be reformers!  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 08:46 PM   #120 
                                               - You just don 't get it, do you?  WillE   Aug-30-09 09:41 PM   #121 
                                                  - You're still not listening. And may well never.  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:12 PM   #122 
                                                  - You avoid the content of the post.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:34 PM   #125 
                                                  - Human Miscounts?  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:00 AM   #134 
                                                  - I don't CARE what the polls say. They are just polls -- not voting systems.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:17 PM   #123 
                                                     - In fact, where are all the true-believers?  Wilms   Aug-30-09 10:28 PM   #124 
                                                     - Now it is clear...  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:45 PM   #127 
                                                     - I have no troops.  Wilms   Aug-31-09 01:03 AM   #135 
                                                     - You really DO have blinders on.  WillE   Aug-30-09 10:42 PM   #126 
                                                     - You wrote: "No one is contesting that the levers are accurate." Good! Then my work here is done.  Bill Bored   Aug-30-09 10:46 PM   #128 
                                                     - No, your work has just started..  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:11 PM   #129 
                                                     - Didn't Bush run in 2000?  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:22 PM   #131 
                                                     - Bush was NOT the incumbent in 2k. He was in '04. He had means, motive and opportunity.  WillE   Aug-30-09 11:35 PM   #132 
                                                     - Welp, at least we agree that it is a ...  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:51 PM   #133 
                                                     - but, WillE,  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:16 AM   #137 
                                                     - You either don't read or you quickly forget: Motive. Means. Opportunity  WillE   Aug-31-09 06:53 AM   #139 
                                                     - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:36 AM   #141 
                                                     - of course he can "have it both ways" -- think about it  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:06 AM   #136 
                                                     - You want to talk about "blind faith"? OK.  WillE   Aug-31-09 07:29 AM   #140 
                                                     - darling, you're in a panic  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 07:57 AM   #142 
                                                     - Show us YOUR numbers. Here is the NY True Vote analysis you WON'T DARE do.  WillE   Aug-31-09 08:59 AM   #143 
                                                     - as usual, you have no counter to ANY of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 09:31 AM   #144 
                                                     - You really *are* an optimist!!! n/t  yowzayowzayowza   Aug-30-09 11:20 PM   #130 
                             - you didn't respond to any of my points  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 12:16 PM   #103 
                                - As usual, you are a no show  WillE   Aug-29-09 02:53 PM   #107 
                                   - care to try again in English?  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 03:21 PM   #109 
                                      - Now about those LVs and Rvs- you have shown us NADA  WillE   Aug-29-09 03:54 PM   #110 
                                         - JIm Lampley on Bradblog in 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 04:40 PM   #111 
                                         - Must Listen! Jim Lampley of HBO on Bradblog in May 2005  WillE   Aug-29-09 06:05 PM   #113 
                                            - I recall that interview. Was very happy to hear it.  Wilms   Aug-29-09 06:48 PM   #114 
                                            - here's an interesting part  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-31-09 05:19 AM   #138 
                                         - no, you haven't  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-29-09 04:56 PM   #112 
 

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