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Reply #5: it makes more sense without the first page [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-21-09 02:11 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. it makes more sense without the first page
Officially, Obama won the popular vote by 53%, with John McCain and Sarah Palin taking 46%--a lead of seven points. But according to what people told the pollsters at the Wall Street Journal, Obama seems to have prevailed by eleven points: 50%-39%. And the New York Times reports that people claim to have voted for Obama by some 28 points, 60%-32%.

first page

You've got to infer that the polls aren't very reliable, since they're nowhere near each other. But MCM blithely concludes:
Thus Obama's win was not a mere "decisive victory," as all the press (and he) agreed. It was a landslide, like in 1932, with the Republicans not just refuted but completely routed.

Is this because Miller has evidence that these retrospective reports are accurate -- well, at least for some pollsters? On the contrary, he says:
Chances are, Obama's landslide won't last forever. Retroactive vote reporting tends to be a proxy for popularity.

That actually isn't quite right, either, but it's revealing nonetheless. Miller spends most of his essay blasting some Slate writer for saying that retrospective voting reports aren't accurate, and then admits that they aren't.
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