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Reply #18: Yes, I have jioned with Freeman on some efforts... [View All]

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-01-09 01:55 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Yes, I have jioned with Freeman on some efforts...
I have not seen precinct level data that compared multiple (local) races, nor have I seen item (question) analysis data, nor person fit data, nor a number of other things. Perhaps you have access to something that I don't have. The national poll data that I downloaded did not have connectivity to perform IRT analysis.

If there were a parallel election, that would be helpful if you wanted to have evidence of manipulation or fraud. Transparent code, mirrored tabulators, etc. might be useful in preventing hacking.

I don't think this is unusual or new. Others have said so on DU and in more scholarly papers.

I would suggest that there are plenty of local races in Florida that appear to have outlier results while other races in the same precinct with the same machines do not. Jenning's and Castor's losses were examples. Usually, there were no local polls of consequence, but there were registration and participation numbers. If there were five candidates (for example), a majority Democratic voters casting votes, and two amendments in a precinct - and all but one GOP candidate loses and that one candidate also showed unusual undervotes and multiple complaints of machine malfunction in that district...well, it's possible that error or hacking was the cause of the unexpected results. If that weird error happens three election cycles in a row across different brands of DRE's in key precincts, then random errors seems less plausible. If the same party is always the beneficiary of the error, that becomes more suspicious. On a micro level, there is not statistical power. Logically, there is a possible picture. Again, see John Snow.

In Florida (and maybe Ohio), the state legislature and governor's control would likely have made a difference in the national Presidential elections. State control may have been part of the manipulation that rivals the national polls and TIA's suggestions.

I don't know of anyway to do 100% parallel elections or exit polls without lot of money and effort, but I do think that random precincts could be paralleled or extensively polled to put a stop to some of the issues we are seeing, simply because the potential hackers might fear getting caught.

The current polling system is not attempting to find error or manipulation and lacks the power to do so with traditional certainty. There are some methods that have not been used often by pollsters (like IRT), and maybe that would be worth a try if the next poll was planned to do so.
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  -The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008 (TIA) tiptoe  Mar-30-09 11:38 PM   #0 
  - tl;dr  laconicsax   Mar-30-09 11:59 PM   #1 
  - K/R! Needs 1 More for the "Greatest" Page  AndyTiedye   Mar-31-09 02:05 AM   #2 
  - K&R x 1,000!  Peace Patriot   Mar-31-09 03:10 AM   #3 
  - K&R nt  Mithreal   Mar-31-09 03:11 AM   #4 
  - In Fla in at least one precinct  HillbillyBob   Sep-18-09 04:21 PM   #28 
     - Tell them to shred THIS!  Bill Bored   Sep-18-09 04:27 PM   #29 
  - A MASTERPIECE k*r!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  autorank   Mar-31-09 03:19 AM   #5 
  - Given all the "new" revelations that DRE's & tabulators steal and drop votes...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 06:30 AM   #6 
  - I missed it... where is TIA's explanation?  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 06:38 AM   #7 
     - I've never seen sufficient precinct level data to do proper analysis of fraud...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 07:24 AM   #9 
     - "proper" analysis?  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 07:34 AM   #10 
        - There are many ways to skin the cat...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 08:00 AM   #12 
           - well, there's still a basic disconnect here  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 08:33 AM   #14 
              - Yes, I have jioned with Freeman on some efforts...  Sancho   Apr-01-09 01:55 PM   #18 
                 - hmm  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-01-09 02:27 PM   #20 
                    - There have been challenges in Florida, but what causes a court to intervene?  Sancho   Apr-02-09 06:43 AM   #22 
                       - well, I wasn't talking about courts  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-02-09 11:33 AM   #23 
                          - There has not been enough outcry to overturn elections here yet...but  Sancho   Apr-02-09 01:13 PM   #24 
     - TIA didn't offer an explanation...his results is consistent with possible problems.  Sancho   Mar-31-09 07:42 AM   #11 
     - oh, I see how I misread you  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 08:28 AM   #13 
        - I would guess that a hacker or hacker would not have "one" method...  Sancho   Apr-01-09 02:07 PM   #19 
           - yes, one should assume not  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-01-09 02:35 PM   #21 
     - "I don't think I have *ever* seen [TIA] analyze precinct-level results." The following confirmed  tiptoe   Mar-31-09 02:28 PM   #15 
        - sorry, no  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 03:21 PM   #17 
  - K&R  pleah   Mar-31-09 07:12 AM   #8 
  - k nt  tiptoe   Jul-11-09 11:18 AM   #25 
  - k&r.  byronius   Mar-31-09 03:15 PM   #16 
  - When will the MSM release the 2008 Exit Poll Report? (TIA)  tiptoe   Jul-30-09 01:11 AM   #26 
  - The Dilemma we Face in an Era of Right Wing Control of our News Media (Time for change) - x  tiptoe   Jul-30-09 06:32 AM   #27 
  - Media Matters: Fox News' ever-expanding ethics nightmare  tiptoe   Apr-26-10 10:28 PM   #30 
  - I don't have the background in statistics....  Scuba   May-30-10 07:57 PM   #31 
 

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