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Reply #9: I've never seen sufficient precinct level data to do proper analysis of fraud... [View All]

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Mar-31-09 07:24 AM
Response to Reply #7
9. I've never seen sufficient precinct level data to do proper analysis of fraud...
what I mean is non-parametric regression (SEM or HLM) where one would have to see exit poll and voter responses on all races and demographics. I've never seen anything like that...

One way to detect manipulation requires that much of the polling data would have to be available instantly before the machines were moved from the station or rebooted!

Also, item response models would clearly show misfit by machine, precinct, race, or items on the exit polls including "reluctant responders" or survey errors. Only item level data aligned with each precinct's results could do that...so I could (and HAVE) identified an individual machine or precinct. In one case here in Pinellas county, when I observed a machine misbehaving and reported it, the poll worker (who worked for the DRE manufacturer) removed that machine, rebooted it and put it back. They also forced me to leave the observation area! In another case in Sarasota, machines that were used in early voting behaved statistically differently when the exact same machines were used in the same district for a regular election (undervotes, etc.). There is NO explanation for that other than a programming change!

In another case, I received a threatening email from the Election Supervior in Pinellas County (Clearwater, St. Pete) when I challenged her machine security (DRE's left unattended in pubic libraries and churches) and the counting of mailed votes. We've had documented reports here of the post office "losing" thousands of mailed ballots. Hillsborough County (Tampa) had a Jeb appointed crook who has now been tossed, but clearly manipulated access. Since we are on to the DRE manipulation here, the new strategy is to use as many mail in ballots as possible and manipulate the validity of the ballots. At least they know we are watching and it is tougher to manipulate if you wanted to down here.

In other cases post facto evidence of machine error was not allowed to be investigated by the courts (Sarasota) because the software was "proprietary". There IS evidence on some local levels of more than "error" because the results are systematic, but there are many legal and political challenges to getting quick and useful access to the data before the machines are reprogrammed or locations misidentified.

Good exit pollsters would ask questions that could be quickly compared to results during the election that would trigger immediate investigations. Also, the best way to do a criminal check of hacking the elections is a voluntary "parallel" election in random or suspicious precincts.


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  -The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008 (TIA) tiptoe  Mar-30-09 11:38 PM   #0 
  - tl;dr  laconicsax   Mar-30-09 11:59 PM   #1 
  - K/R! Needs 1 More for the "Greatest" Page  AndyTiedye   Mar-31-09 02:05 AM   #2 
  - K&R x 1,000!  Peace Patriot   Mar-31-09 03:10 AM   #3 
  - K&R nt  Mithreal   Mar-31-09 03:11 AM   #4 
  - In Fla in at least one precinct  HillbillyBob   Sep-18-09 04:21 PM   #28 
     - Tell them to shred THIS!  Bill Bored   Sep-18-09 04:27 PM   #29 
  - A MASTERPIECE k*r!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  autorank   Mar-31-09 03:19 AM   #5 
  - Given all the "new" revelations that DRE's & tabulators steal and drop votes...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 06:30 AM   #6 
  - I missed it... where is TIA's explanation?  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 06:38 AM   #7 
     - I've never seen sufficient precinct level data to do proper analysis of fraud...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 07:24 AM   #9 
     - "proper" analysis?  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 07:34 AM   #10 
        - There are many ways to skin the cat...  Sancho   Mar-31-09 08:00 AM   #12 
           - well, there's still a basic disconnect here  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 08:33 AM   #14 
              - Yes, I have jioned with Freeman on some efforts...  Sancho   Apr-01-09 01:55 PM   #18 
                 - hmm  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-01-09 02:27 PM   #20 
                    - There have been challenges in Florida, but what causes a court to intervene?  Sancho   Apr-02-09 06:43 AM   #22 
                       - well, I wasn't talking about courts  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-02-09 11:33 AM   #23 
                          - There has not been enough outcry to overturn elections here yet...but  Sancho   Apr-02-09 01:13 PM   #24 
     - TIA didn't offer an explanation...his results is consistent with possible problems.  Sancho   Mar-31-09 07:42 AM   #11 
     - oh, I see how I misread you  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 08:28 AM   #13 
        - I would guess that a hacker or hacker would not have "one" method...  Sancho   Apr-01-09 02:07 PM   #19 
           - yes, one should assume not  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-01-09 02:35 PM   #21 
     - "I don't think I have *ever* seen [TIA] analyze precinct-level results." The following confirmed  tiptoe   Mar-31-09 02:28 PM   #15 
        - sorry, no  OnTheOtherHand   Mar-31-09 03:21 PM   #17 
  - K&R  pleah   Mar-31-09 07:12 AM   #8 
  - k nt  tiptoe   Jul-11-09 11:18 AM   #25 
  - k&r.  byronius   Mar-31-09 03:15 PM   #16 
  - When will the MSM release the 2008 Exit Poll Report? (TIA)  tiptoe   Jul-30-09 01:11 AM   #26 
  - The Dilemma we Face in an Era of Right Wing Control of our News Media (Time for change) - x  tiptoe   Jul-30-09 06:32 AM   #27 
  - Media Matters: Fox News' ever-expanding ethics nightmare  tiptoe   Apr-26-10 10:28 PM   #30 
  - I don't have the background in statistics....  Scuba   May-30-10 07:57 PM   #31 
 

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