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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Mar-30-09 11:38 PM
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The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008 (TIA)
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The True MATH: Confirming Election Fraud 2000-2008

TruthIsAll     source: http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ConfirmationofPo...

Mar 30, 2009

In analyzing historical election data, an ongoing pattern of statistical anomalies leads to two conclusions: the recorded vote does not reflect the True Vote, and the pattern always favors the Republicans. This brief summary of recurring anomalies since the 2000 Selection is powerful evidence that the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen and that landslides were denied in the 2006 midterms and 2008 presidential elections. The analysis does not include millions of potential Democrats who were disenfranchised and never even got to vote.

Uncounted Votes
There are millions of uncounted votes in every election. The majority (70-80%) are Democratic.

Late Votes
The Democratic late vote exceeded the Election Day share by 7% in each of the last three presidential elections.

Undecided voters
Historically, undecided voters break (60-90%) for the challenger.
Pre-election polls in general do not allocate undecided voters.
The undecided vote was strongly Democratic in the last three elections,.

Pre-election Polls
Registered voter (RV) polls include all registered new voters; likely-voter (LV) polls are a subset of RV polls and exclude many newly registered.
In general, only LV polls are posted during the final two weeks before the election.
LV polls are a subset of the total (RV) sample and have consistently understated the Democratic vote.
The RV samples are more accurate, especially when there is a heavy turnout of new voters — as in 2004, 2006 and 2008.
The Census reported that 88.5% of registered voters turned out on 2004.
The average projected turnout of 5 final pre-election RV/LV polls was 82.8%.
A regression analysis of Kerry’s vote share vs. registered voter turnout indicated he had a 52.6% share (assuming a 75% UVA).
Assuming the two-party vote, Kerry had a 51.3% share.
There was a strong 0.89 correlation ratio between Kerry’s LV poll share and LV/RV turnout.
In other words, the pre-election polls underestimated voter turnout by 6%. Newly registered Democrats came out in force.

New Voters
According to the 1988-2004 National Exit Polls, the Democrats won new voters by an average 14% margin.
In 2008, Obama won new voters by approximately 71-27%; in 2004, Kerry won new voters by approximately 57-41%.

The calculations below confirm that new voters comprise the difference (RV – LV) between registered (RV) and likely voter (LV) sample-size.
The Obama / McCain share of the difference was 73.3-26.7%, closely matching the 71-27% Final NEP new voter share.
The Kerry / Bush share of the difference was 57.8-42.2%, closely matching the 57-41% Prelim NEP new voter share.

The number of new voters is a function of voter mortality and turnout. It is estimated by the simple formula:
New voters = current election votes cast – (prior election votes cast – voter mortality) * prior-voter turnout

Applying the new voter formula based on 2008 votes cast (135.43m, estimate) and the 2004 votes cast (125.74m),
Given ~1.16% annual voter mortality (~5.83m over 4 years) and an approximate 98% turnout of 2004 election voters in 2008:
New 2008 voters ~= 17.9 million = (135.43 – (125.74 – 5.83)* 0.98) = (135.43 –119.91*.98)
New Voters recorded ~= 17.4m = 17.9 * (131.37/135.43) (based on total recorded vote).
According to the Final 2008 NEP, there were 17.1m new voters (13% of 131.37).

Applying the new voter formula based on 2004 votes cast (125.736m) and 2000 votes cast (110.826m), given ~1.19% average annual voter mortality
New 2004 voters ('DNV' 2000) = 22.3 million = 125.736 – (110.826 – 5.28)* 0.98 = 125.74 – 105.55*.98 = 125.74 - 103.44

There were approximately 3.8 million returning Nader voters. Kerry won 2.4 million (64%); Bush had 0.7 million (17%).
According to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, Kerry won 13.4 million new voters (57% of 'DNV'); Bush had 9.6 million (41%).
Of the 26.1 million new and returning Nader voters, Kerry won 15.8m and Bush 10.1m — a 5.7 million Kerry margin.
Since Bush won the official recorded vote by 3 million, almost 8.7 million more returning-Gore voters than Bush voters had to have defected.
But the 12:22am National Exit Poll indicated that 10% of returning Bush voters defected to Kerry, and 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.


Final National Exit Poll
The Final NEP is always forced to match the recorded vote count.
In 2004, the returning Bush/Gore 43/37% voter mix was impossible.
In 2006, the returning 49/43% Bush/Kerry voter mix was implausible.
In 2008, the returning 46/37% Bush/Kerry voter mix was impossible.

2000
Gore won by 51.0–50.46m (48.38–47.87%).
The Census reported 110.8 million votes cast, but just 105.4m were recorded.
The Final 2000 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.
Approximately 4 million of the 5.4 million uncounted votes were for Gore.
Therefore he won the True Vote by 55–52m.

The election was stolen.

2004
Bush won the recorded vote by 62.0–59.0m (50.73-48.27%)
Kerry won the unadjusted (WPE) state exit poll aggregate by 52-47%.
He led the preliminary NEP (12:22am, 13047 respondents) by 51-48%.
He led despite the implausible NEP 41/39% returning Bush/Gore voter mix.

The Final NEP (13660 sample) was 'forced to match' the 50.7–48.3% Bush recorded margin.
To force the match in the Final NEP:
a) Bush shares of returning and new voters were increased,
b) The returning Bush/Gore voter mix was changed to an impossible 43/37%.
The mix indicates an impossible 52.6m (43% of 122.3) returning Bush 2000 voters.

Bush only had 50.46 million recorded votes in 2000.
Approximately 2.5m died and 2.5m did not vote in 2004.
So there were at most 45.5 million returning Bush voters.
The Final overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 7 million.
Kerry won the True Vote by 8–10 million.

The election was stolen.

2006 Midterms
Democrats won all 120 pre-election Generic polls.
The final trend line projection was a 56.43–41.67 Democratic landslide.
At 7pm, the NEP indicated a 55–43% landslide.
The returning Bush/Kerry voter mix was 47/45%.

The Final was forced to match the 52–46% recorded vote.
To force the match:
a) the Bush share of returning and new voters were increased,
b) the returning voter mix was changed to an implausible 49/43%.
The Democratic margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.

2008
Obama won the recorded vote by 69.4–59.9m (52.9–45.6%)
Obama led the final pre-election registered voter polls by 52–39%.
The Final 2008 NEP was forced to match the recorded vote.

To force the match, the Final indicated an impossible 46/37% Bush/Kerry returning voter mix.
The mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million — assuming zero fraud in 2004.
It overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million — assuming the unadjusted (WPE) 2004 state exit poll aggregate (Kerry by 52–47%).


The Final indicated that an impossible 5.2 million (4% of 131.37m) were returning third-party voters.
There were only 1.2 million third-party voters in 2004.

The Final indicated there were 60.4 million (46% of 131.37m) returning Bush voters.
Bush only had 62.0 million votes in 2004 (assuming no fraud).
Approximately 3 million died and another 3 million did not vote in 2008.
Therefore there were approximately 56 million returning Bush voters.
Assuming no fraud in 2004, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 4 million.
On the other hand, assuming that Kerry won by 52–47%, the Final NEP mix overstated the number of returning Bush voters by 9 million.

Obama's True Vote margin was cut in half.
The landslide was denied.

In summary:

If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count, then the official vote count must also be impossible.
Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.


Census Voting Statistics
(in millions)

 
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004

 

Total Recorded Votes
Dem
Rep
Other

Registered Voters
Change from prior year
4-year mortality
New Registered

Total votes cast
Change from prior year
4-year mortality
Percentages
Voting age, 18+
Registered voters
Change from prior year

Uncounted — % of Cast
Uncounted Votes
–Democrat (75%)
–Republican (25%)
–Net Democratic
92.03
37.58
54.46
0.00

116.11
11.07
6.04
16.62

101.88
8.81
5.30

59.94
87.75
9.47

9.66
9.85
7.38
2.46
4.92
91.60
41.81
48.89
0.90

118.59
2.48
6.07
8.52

102.22
0.35
5.23

57.40
86.20
0.34

10.40
10.63
7.97
2.66
5.31
103.75
44.91
39.10
19.74

126.58
7.99
6.38
14.06

113.87
11.64
5.74

61.32
89.96
11.39

8.88
10.12
7.59
2.53
5.06
91.27
45.59
37.82
7.87

127.66
1.08
6.33
7.46

105.02
-8.85
5.21

54.23
82.26
-7.77

13.09
13.74
10.31
3.44
6.87
105.42
51.00
50.46
3.28

129.55
1.89
6.32
8.22

110.83
5.81
5.41

54.70
85.55
5.53

4.88
5.41
4.06
1.35
2.70
122.30
59.03
62.04
1.23

142.07
12.52
6.82
18.84

125.74
14.91
6.04

58.30
88.51
13.46

2.74
3.44
2.58
0.86
1.72


Uncounted Votes

 
Census-Reported
Votes Cast
 
States-Recorded
Votes Counted
 
Votes
Uncounted

2008
2004
2000
na
125.74
110.83
 
131.37
122.29
105.42
 
na
3.45
5.41

 

Late Votes

2008
Election Day
Late
Total

2004
Election Day
Late
Total

2000
Election Day
Late
Total
Total
121.21
10.16
131.37

Total
116.7
5.6
122.3

Total
102.6
2.8
105.4
Obama
63.4
6.01
69.46

Kerry
56.4
2.6
59.0

Gore
49.5
1.5
51.00
McCain
56.1
3.81
59.94

Bush
59.8
2.2
62.0

Bush
49.3
1.2
50.46
Other
1.64
0.34
1.98

Other
0.40
0.80
1.20

Other
3.8
0.1
3.95
Obama
52.3%
59.2%
52.87%

Kerry
48.3%
46.9%
48.27%

Gore
48.2%
53.6%
48.38%
McCain
46.3%
37.5%
45.62%

Bush
51.3%
39.4%
50.73%

Bush
48.1%
42.9%
47.87%
Other
1.4%
3.3%
1.51%

Other
0.4%
13.7%
1.00%

Other
3.7%
3.5%
3.75%
 
Dem Margin
+  6.0
+21.7
 

 
–  3.0
+  7.5
 

 
+  0.1
+10.7
 
 

2000 Voter Mortality

Mortality Table
Age    AnnualRate
 
NEP
Age
Annual
Rate
Voter
Mort.
Votes
Cast
 
Mix
 
Final 2000 NEP
Gore
Bush
Other
 
Total Voter Deaths
Gore
Bush
Other


15-24
25-45
45-64
65+ 

0.09%
0.18%
0.71%
5.07%
 

18-29
30-44
45-59
60+ 

Total



Mort.

Deaths
4-year
Annual

0.10%
0.20%
0.60%
4.00%

1.22%



Total

5.38
4.88%
1.22%

0.019
0.064
0.199
1.064

1.346



Gore

2.71
50.37%
1.26%

18.84
32.13
33.24
26.59

110.8



Bush

2.55
47.38%
1.20%

17%
29%
30%
24%

100%
Total


Other

0.121
2.25%
0.84%
 

48%
48%
48%
51%

48.72%
53.98

46%
49%
49%
47%

48.01%
53.20

6%
3%
3%
2%

3.27%
3.62
 

0.036
0.123
0.383
2.170

2.712
5.02%

0.035
0.126
0.391
2.000

2.551
4.80%

0.005
0.008
0.024
0.085

0.121
3.35%

 

2008 Final Pre-election Polls — RV and LV
The Obama:McCain  'RV minus LV'  shares are 73.3–26.7%, closely matching post-election, Final exit poll  'New Voter'  shares, 71–27%.

The 1052 difference — i.e. the 3-poll RV samples (8581) exclusive their LV subsets (7529) — comprised 12.3% of the total RV sample.
Assuming 3% uncounted votes, there were approximately 17.6m newly-registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2004) — 13% of 135.43m.


RV
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total


LV
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Sample
2824
2762
2995

8581


Subset
2472
2470
2587

7529
Date
11/02
11/02
11/01
 
100.0%
 
 
Date
11/02
11/02
11/01
 
100.0%
Obama
53
54
50

52.27%


Obama
53
53
49

51.63%
McCain
40
41
39

39.97%


McCain
42
44
42

42.66%
Spread
13
13
11

12.3%


Spread
11
9
7

9.0%
 
Other
 
 
 

1.51%


Other
 
 
 

1.51%
Undecided
 
 
 

6.06%


Undecided
 
 
 

4.79%
 
Pre-Election Final RV and LV Polls

 
Registered Voters (RV)
 
Likely Voters (LV subset)

 
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Share
Total
2627
2623
2666

7916
92.3%
Obama
1497
1491
1498

4486
52.3%
McCain
1130
1132
1168

3430
40.0%
 
Total
2348
2396
2355

7099
94.3%
Obama
1310
1309
1268

3887
51.6%
McCain
1038
1087
1087

3212
42.7%
 

 
RV–LV
 
"RV minus LV" Voters


Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Total
278
228
311

817
Obama
187
182
230

599
McCain
91
46
82

218
 
Obama
67.1%
80.0%
73.8%

73.3%
McCain
32.9%
20.0%
26.2%

26.7%
Spread
34.3%
60.0%
47.6%

46.6%

 

Post-Election   Preliminary NEP
‘DNV’ Voters
?
?
 
 

Post-Election  2:34p Final NEP
71%
27%
 
 

 

2008 Undecided Voter Allocation

 
Pre-election Poll (%)
 
 
Undecided Voters Allocated

2008
Gallup
IBD
Zogby
Dem Corp
Ipsos
Pew

Average

 
 
Obama
53
47.3
51
51
50
49

50.22
 
 
 
McCain
42
42.8
44
44
42
42

42.8
 
 
 
Spread
11
4.5
7
7
8
7

7.42
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Polls Avg
Diff
UVA
 
Obama
55
51.5
54.1
53
53
52

53.10
50.22
2.88
62.9%
McCain
44
44.3
42.7
44
46
46

44.50
42.80
1.70
37.1%
Spread
11
7.2
11.4
9
7
6
 
8.60
7.42
1.18
25.8%


UVA 83.7% to Obama

Gallup
IBD
Zogby
DemCorp
50.6
43.2
7.2
 
 
Polls Avg
Diff
UVA
 
53.4
50.6
2.8
83.7%
43.8
43.2
0.5
16.3%
9.7
7.2
2.4
67.4%


UVA 57.1% to McCain

Ipsos
Pew
 
 
49.5
42.0
7.3
 
 
Polls Avg
Diff
UVA
 
52.5
49.5
3.0
42.9%
46.0
42.0
4.0
57.1%
6.5
7.3
-0.8
-14.2%
 

2004 Final Pre-election Polls

The Kerry/Bush vote split of the difference (1335) in sample between the RV and LV subset (57.8–42.2%)
matched the 12:22am Preliminary National Exit Poll  'New Voter'  shares: 57–41–2%.


The 1769 difference — i.e. 5-poll RV samples (10310) exclusive their LV subsets (8541) — comprised 17.2% of the total (RV) sample.
In 2004, there were approximately 21.4 million newly registered and other new voters (i.e., 'DNV' 2000) — 17% of 125.7m votes cast.
Of the 21.4 million, approximately 13.8m (11% of 125.74) were first-time voters. Kerry won 55% of first-timers.
The average pre-election poll projected turnout of registered voters was 82.8% (117m of 142m registered).
The census reported an 88.5% voter turnout (125.7m of 142.1m registered).

 

 

 

Actual Poll (%)

 
0.75
0.25
Undecided Voters Allocated

   RV
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct




   LV
1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
30-Oct
Poll
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Average

Poll
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Average
Sample
1125
1400
1866
3511
2408

10310
2062

Sample
939
1200
1573
2904
1925

8541
1708
Kerry
46
48
48
48
46


47.2

Kerry
47
48
49
48
48


48
Bush
47
45
46
47
45


46

Bush
49
46
49
49
51


48.8
Spread
-1
3
2
1
1


1.2

Spread
-2
2
0
-1
-3


-0.8
 
Kerry
50.50
52.50
51.75
51.00
52.00


51.55

Kerry
49.25
51.75
49.75
49.50
48.00


49.65
Bush
48.50
46.50
47.25
48.00
47.00


47.45

Bush
49.75
47.25
49.25
49.50
51.00


49.35
Spread
2.0
6.0
4.5
3.0
5.0


4.1

Spread
-0.5
4.5
0.5
0.0
-3.0


0.3









Projected
Turnout
83.5%
85.7%
84.3%
82.7%
79.9%


82.8%
 

Pre-election Polls Final RV and LV Samples

 
Registered Voters (RV)
 
Likely Voters (LV subset)

 
CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
 
Total
1047
1302
1754
3335
2192

9629
93.4%
Kerry
518
672
896
1685
1108

4878
47.3%
Bush
529
630
858
1650
1084

4751
46.1%
 
Total
901
1128
1542
2817
1906

8294
97.1%
Kerry
441
576
771
1394
924

4106
48.1%
Bush
460
552
771
1423
982

4188
49.0%
 

 
RV – LV 
 
"RV minus LV" Voters


CBS
Fox
Gallup
ABC
Pew

Total
Total
145
174
213
519
286

1335
Kerry
76
96
125
291
184

772
Bush
69
78
88
227
102

563
 
Kerry
52.6%
55.2%
58.8%
56.2%
64.3%

57.8%
Bush
47.4%
44.8%
41.2%
43.8%
35.7%

42.2%
Spread
 5.2%
10.3%
17.6%
12.4%
28.7%

15.6%
 
• If Final NEP weightings indicate a mathematically impossible number of
   returning voters, then simple logic dictates the weightings are impossible.
• Since impossible weightings were necessary to match to the official vote count,
   then the official vote count must also be impossible.
• Since the vote count is impossible, then all demographic category cross tabs
   must use incorrect weights and/or vote shares to match the count.

Polled Pre Vote: 10,310. 'RV-LV' sample: CBS + Gallup + ABC + FOX + Pew
 

Post-Election 12:22a Prelim NEP
57%
41%
 
Polled Exit Vote: 13,046. Shares = 3.4m Dem margin  (17% DNV == 21.4m)

Post-Election   1:25p  Final NEP
54%
45%
 
'Forced' to match the vote-count = Dem margin dis-count, 1.5m votes  12

 
NATIONAL EXIT POLL
 
 
 
 

CATEGORY

Average
Total Votes

Max
Min

Gender
Party-ID
Vote Prev Electn
Region
Education

Race
Age
Income
Ideology
Religion

Military
Decided
Location
 
Kerry

50.85%
62.19 

51.63%
50.08%

50.78%
51.07%
51.20%
50.53%
50.43%

50.98%
50.26%
51.07%
50.18%
50.78%

51.20%
51.23%
51.40%
Bush

47.88%
58.55 

48.51%
47.24%

48.22%
47.85%
47.50%
47.95%
48.18%

47.61%
47.69%
47.75%
48.60%
48.01%

47.62%
47.93%
47.47%
Other

1.27%
1.55 

1.85%
0.69%

1.00%
1.08%
1.30%
1.52%
1.39%

1.41%
2.05%
1.18%
1.22%
1.21%

1.18%
0.84%
1.13%
 
Kerry

47.95%
58.64 

48.62%
47.29%

47.78%
47.89%
48.48%
48.24%
47.82%

47.81%
47.96%
48.13%
47.25%
47.99%

48.38%
47.50%
48.14%
Bush

51.08%
62.47 

51.62%
50.54%

51.22%
51.22%
51.11%
51.08%
51.24%

50.99%
51.28%
51.02%
51.54%
50.94%

50.44%
51.22%
50.73%
Other

0.97%
1.19 

1.46%
0.48%

1.00%
0.89%
0.41%
0.68%
0.94%

1.20%
0.76%
0.85%
1.21%
1.07%

1.18%
1.28%
1.13%
 
Obama

52.69%
69.22 

53.13%
52.25%

52.71%
52.67%
52.62%
52.76%
52.31%

52.82%
52.29%
52.96%
52.56%
53.07%

52.65%
52.67%
52.88%
McCain

45.57%
59.86 

46.14%
44.99%

45.35%
45.14%
45.94%
45.56%
45.93%

45.57%
45.71%
44.99%
45.88%
45.58%

45.50%
45.81%
45.41%
Other

1.74%
2.29 

2.24%
1.25%

1.94%
2.19%
1.44%
1.68%
1.76%

1.61%
2.00%
2.05%
1.56%
1.35%

1.85%
1.52%
1.71%



 
 
 
 
2004 PRELIMINARY NEP
1% Margin of Error
 
 
2004 FINAL EXIT POLL
'forced' to match the count
 
2008 FINAL EXIT POLL
'forced' to match the count

Vote Prev Electn
 
 
12:22am ( 13,047 )
 
 
1:25pm ( 13,660 )
 
 
 
( 17,836 )

Voted
  '00
DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

Share
 
Votes
  '04
20.79
47.70
50.14
  3.67

 
 
Weight

17%
39%
41%

3%

100%
Kerry

57%
91%
10%
64%

51.20%
Bush

41%
8%
90%
17%

47.50%
Other

2%
1%
0%
19%

1.30%
 
Weight

17%
37%
43%

3%

100%
Kerry

54%
90%
9%
71%


48.48%
Bush

45%
10%
91%
21%


51.11%
Other

1%
0%
0%
8%


0.41%
 
Voted
  '04
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other
Weight

13%
37%
46%
4%


100%
Obama

71%
89%
17%
66%


52.62%
McCain

27%
10%
82%
24%


45.94%
Other

2%
1%
1%
10%


1.44%
 
2004 TRUE VOTE
Voted
2000
 
Alive
 
 
Calculated 2004 True Vote

 '00
DNV
Gore
Bush
Other

Total
Recorded

51.00
50.46
3.95

105.42
Uncounted

4.04
1.18
0.16

5.38
Cast

55.04
51.64
 4.11

110.8
Deaths

2.69
2.52
0.2

5.41
'04 

52.36
49.12
3.91

105.39
Turnout

97%
97%
97%

100.1
Voted
23.48
50.80
47.66
3.80

125.74
Cast

2004 Official
Vote Count 
 
Weight
18.70%
40.40%
37.90%
3.02%

100%
125.74

122.3
 
Kerry
57%
91%
10%
64%

53.14%
66.81

59.03
48.27%
Bush
41%
8%
90%
17%

45.51%
57.23

62.04
50.73%
Other
2%
1%
0%
19%

1.35%
1.70

1.23
1.00%
 
2008 TRUE VOTE
Voted
Unadjusted 
 
Alive
 
 
Calculated 2008 True Vote

 '04
DNV
Kerry
Bush
Other

Total
'04 Exit Poll

63.59
57.47
 1.23

122.30
Uncounted

1.79
1.62
0.03

3.45
Cast

65.38
59.09
 1.26

125.74
Deaths

3.14
2.84
0.06

6.04
'08 

62.25
56.26
1.2

119.7
Turnout

97%
97%
97%

113.7
Voted
19.32
60.38
54.57
1.17

135.43
Cast

2008 Official
Vote Count 
 
Weight
14.30%
44.60%
40.30%
0.86%

100%
135.43

131.37
Obama
71%
89%
17%
66%

57.22%
77.50

69.46
52.87%
McCain
27%
9%
82%
24%

41.11%
55.68

59.94
45.62%
Other
2%
2%
1%
10%

1.67%
2.26

1.98
1.51%
 

1988-2008 SUMMARY

 
'88-'08
 
Calculated True Vote
Dem
Rep
Margin
 
Recorded Vote-Count
Dem
Rep
Margin
 
Unadj State Exit Poll Aggreg
Dem
Rep
Margin
 
WPE
Recorded-EP
 
Margins Diff
TrueVote-EP
 
True Vote
Margin (mil)


Avg-'08
Avg-'04

2008
2004
2000

1996
1992
1988
 

51.82%
50.69%

57.5%
53.2%
49.4%

51.9%
48.0%
50.7%

42.54%
42.88%

40.8%
45.4%

46.0%

39.3%
35.0%
48.1%

9.29%
7.87%

16.7%
7.8%
3.3%

12.6%
13.0%
2.6%
 

47.90%
46.91%

52.9%
48.3%
48.4%

49.2%
43.0%
45.6%

45.96%
46.03%

45.6%
50.7%

47.9%

40.7%
37.4%
53.4%

1.94%
0.88%

7.2%
-2.5%
0.5%

8.5%
5.6%
-7.7%
 


48.82%

  na
52.0%
49.4%

50.2%
45.7%
46.8%


44.12%

na
47.0%
46.9%

39.8%
34.7%
52.2%


4.70%


4.9%
2.5%

10.4%
11.0%
-5.3%
 


-3.82%


-7.4%
-2.0%

-1.9%
-5.4%
-2.4%
 


3.17%


2.9%
0.8%

2.2%
2.0%
8.0%
 

11.11 (D)
8.81 (D)

22.60 (D)
9.79 (D)
4.24 (D)

10.50 (D)
14.82 (D)
2.67 (D)
 

TRUE VOTE CALCULATION
Election Calculator — 1988 – 2008

True Vote Calculations: 1988, 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008 — incl Sensitivity Analyses: Turnout, Mortality, Uncounted
Introduction
Summary Statistics, 1988 - 2008
OH, CT, NY, PA, CA, NJ, FL
Graphs
2004 Pre-election polls, Exit polls and the True Vote
States 2008
2008 Final National Exit Poll - 35 categoories
2004 Edison-Mitofsky Exit Poll Estimates: WPE, Best Geo, Composite
2004 The Final 5.6 Million Recorded Votes
Historical Final National Exit Poll — Demographic Trend and Correlation Analysis
1988-2004 Recorded State Vote and Exit Poll Shares
U.S. Census: Reported Voting in Presidential Election Years by Region, Race, Hispanic Origin, Sex, and Age – 1964 - 2004
Links: Polling Analysis, Census Data, 2000/2004 County Vote Database, National Exit Poll Timeline,
Edison-Mitofsky 2004 Report, State Exit Polls (GEO Best Estimate), Election Incident Reporting Systsem (EIRS)
 

REGRESSION ANALYSIS: Kerry Vote share vs. Registered Voter Turnout

Two-party
y=.15+.41x
Kerry
47.8%
48.2%
48.6%
48.9%
49.0%
49.4%
49.9%
50.3%
50.7%
51.1%
51.3%
51.5%
51.9%
 
 
Turnout
80%
81%
82%
82.8%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
88.5%
89%
90%
 
75% UVA
y=.012+.581x
Kerry
47.7%
48.3%
48.8%
49.3%
49.4%
50.0%
50.6%
51.2%
51.7%
52.3%
52.6%
52.9%
53.5%


Turnout
80%
81%
82%
82.8%
83%
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
88.5%
89%
90%
 






Pre-election (5-LV poll) projected turnout






Post-election Census-reported turnout

 
 

2000 Final Pre-election Polls

 
 

Actual Poll (%)
 
0.60
0.40

Undecided Voters Allocated

RV
11/2
11/5
11/5




LV
11/2
11/5
11/5
Poll
Newsweek
Pew
Gallup

Total


Poll
Newsweek
Pew
Gallup

Total
Gore
44
45
46

45


Gore
43
43
45

43.67
Bush
41
41
44

42


Bush
45
45
47

45.67
Spread
3
4
2

3


Spread
-2
-2
-2

-2
 
Gore
52.4
52.8
51.4

52.2


Gore
49.6
49.6
49.2

49.47
Bush
46.6
46.2
47.6

46.8


Bush
49.4
49.4
49.8

49.53
Spread
5.8
6.6
3.8

5.4


Spread
0.2
0.2
-0.6

-0.07

 

2000-2008 Final Pre-election Poll Summary

 
 
RV Polls
 
LV Polls

 
 
2000
2004
2008
Dem
45.00
47.20
52.33
Rep
42.00
46.00
40.00
Spread
3.00
1.80
12.33
 
Dem
43.67
47.20
52.00
Rep
45.67
47.00
43.00
Spread
-2.00
0.20
9.00
 

 
UVA Projected
 
 
 
 
 

 
2000
2004
2008
52.20
51.55
56.96
46.80
47.45
41.54
5.40
4.10
15.42
 
49.47
49.65
54.63
49.53
49.35
43.88
-0.07
0.30
10.75
 

 
Recorded
 
 
 
 
 

 
2000
2004
2008
48.87
48.27
52.87
48.38
50.73
45.62
0.49
-2.46
7.25
 
48.87
48.27
52.87
48.38
50.73
45.62
0.49
-2.46
7.25
 

 
Diff: Proj-Recd
 
 
 
 
 

 
2000
2004
2008
3.33
3.28
4.09
-1.58
-3.28
-4.08
4.91
6.56
8.17
 
0.60
1.38
1.76
1.15
-1.38
-1.75
-0.56
2.76
3.50

 

2006 National Exit Poll Timeline vs. the True Vote (Generic Poll Trend)

VOTED
7:07p Preliminary Exit Poll
 
1pm Final Exit Poll
 
True Generic Vote

  '04
Kerry
Bush
Other
DNV

TOTAL
Mix
45%
47%

4%
4%

100%
Dem
93%
17%
67%
67%

55.2%
Rep
6%
82%
23%
30%

43.4%
Other
1%
1%
10%
3%

1.4%
 
Mix
43%
49%

4%
4%

100%
Dem
92%
15%
66%
66%


52.2%
Rep
7%
83%

23%
32%

45.9%
Other
1%
2%
11%
2%


1.9%
 
Mix
49%
46%
1%
4%


100%
Dem
93%
17%
67%
67%

56.7%
Rep
6%
82%
23%
30%

42.1%
Other
1%
1%
10%
3%

1.2%

 

2006 Generic Pre-election Poll Trend vs. the 7:07pm and Final National Exit Poll

National Exit Poll
Source
Unadj NEP
CNN-7pm
CNN-Final
NYT
Dem
56.37%
55.20%
52.20%
53.10%
Rep
41.33%
43.40%
45.90%
44.90%
Other
2.30%
1.50%
2.50%
2.00%
 

Reported National Vote
Wikipedia
CBS-Nat
CBS-State
57.70%
52.70%
51.30%
41.80%
45.10%
46.40%
0.50%
2.20%
2.30%
 

120 Generic Poll Linear Regression Trend
Dem   =
Rep   =
 46.98 + .0419x
 38.06 + .0047x

 

Substituting x = 120 and allocating 60% of the undecided vote (UVA) to the Democrats:

Dem   =
Rep   =
 Trend + UVA  = Projection
 52.01 + 4.42 = 56.43%
 38.62 + 2.95 = 41.57%

 

Graphics

2008 Election Model: Obama Electoral Vote and Popular Vote Share Trend

2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Margin Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters

2008 Election Calculator: Obama Vote Share Sensitivity to share of returning Kerry and Bush voters

2006 Pre-election Generic Poll Trend

Probabilities of Democratic House Gain

2004 Pre-Election and Exit Poll Vote Share Simulation








 

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