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Reply #39: Well, there are two issues here [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-10-08 04:18 AM
Response to Reply #28
39. Well, there are two issues here
One concerns specificity and sensitivity.

A fraudulent election is unlikely to be accompanied by an exit poll that matches the count.
But a non-fraudulent election is quite likely to be accompanied by an exit poll that matches the count.

In other words, exit polls are sensitive to fraud (will give a "true positive) but are not specific to fraud (will also give a "false positive").

The second is that if you get a "positive" (a discrepant exit poll) one way of determining whether or not it is a "true or false positive" (i.e. whether it really indicates a fraudulent election, or whether it is a "false positive" - i.e. it has raised a flag when the count is not fraudulent) is to see whether the degree of discrepancy is correlated with advantage to the party that appears to be benefiting by the alleged fraud.

Which is what I did, and it wasn't.

Now "proving a negative" is impossible in statistics, so what I did was to estimate how small the effect would have to be to still have a high probability of showing up in my analysis. And the answer was: "small".

So I can't tell you that no fraud affected the exit poll discrepancy - it may have done. What I can tell you is that if it did, it was a sufficiently small effect that the discrepancy itself must have been largely caused by something else. And if it was largely caused by something else, there is no reason to trust it at all as an indicator of fraud.

It also means that electronic fraud is extremely unlikely to have been on a scale of millions, which is what it would have to be to have robbed Kerry of the popular vote.

But it tells us nothing about Ohio, because the number of precincts in Ohio was too small for the exit poll analysis to rule out large scale vote theft (it certainly didn't indicate it, though). So even if the exit poll discrepancy in Ohio WAS due to fraud, the exit poll sample was not large enough to give the statistical power to demonstrate it.

Short version: exit polls only have enough statistical power to give a positive indicator of fraud at national level; they will also give false positives; in 2004 a check on whether the positive was false yielded the result that it almost certainly was.

And that e-voting theft was not a major factor in Bush's popular vote win.
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  -Obama IS Going to Win, but..... BeFree  Oct-09-08 10:54 AM   #0 
  - No chance -- we are taking both. n/t  melody   Oct-09-08 11:00 AM   #1 
  - But of course we win honestly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:06 AM   #2 
  - You're consciously putting your head in the sand -- you're pre-determining losing  melody   Oct-09-08 11:31 AM   #5 
     - Hmmmm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:22 PM   #7 
        - BeFree, if you're going to launch into personal attacks, I see you've embraced your viewpoint  melody   Oct-09-08 04:07 PM   #19 
           - melody  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:04 PM   #47 
  - But Since All Republicans Always Vote in Lockstep, We Need 60 to Avoid Endless Filibusters  AndyTiedye   Oct-09-08 11:20 AM   #3 
     - Andy, what will you do when we win? Will you start talking about how we'll surely lose in 2012?  melody   Oct-09-08 11:32 AM   #6 
        - I have to ask  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:26 PM   #8 
        - Yes!  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:26 PM   #11 
        - You, again?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:39 PM   #13 
        - Well, if you win  Febble   Oct-09-08 02:05 PM   #14 
           - Nope. You are wrong.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:19 PM   #15 
           - about what?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:14 PM   #17 
           - Maybe a teensy-weensy  BeFree   Oct-21-08 05:41 PM   #56 
              - link?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-21-08 05:58 PM   #57 
                 - There you go again  BeFree   Oct-28-08 11:36 AM   #58 
           - Exactly what I am starting to worry about, 2010. Or beyond.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:47 PM   #21 
           - Yep  BeFree   Oct-13-08 09:06 AM   #55 
           - I know that you consider  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:00 PM   #23 
              - Ummm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:53 PM   #26 
                 - Something to consider  droidamus2   Oct-11-08 07:32 PM   #51 
                    - Welcome to the ER  BeFree   Oct-11-08 10:51 PM   #52 
           - No matter what happens in this election, the problem will not go away until we correct it.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:38 PM   #20 
              - Yup.  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:01 PM   #24 
              - you know, we all agree about that  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 06:12 PM   #25 
        - Lizzie, Compare 32% vs 80% of voters using e-voting from '04 to '08:  mod mom   Oct-09-08 03:02 PM   #16 
           - I'm not sure of your point  Febble   Oct-09-08 05:58 PM   #22 
              - Yet  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:17 PM   #28 
              - Well, there are two issues here  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:18 AM   #39 
              - I've gone through training (Obama/Dem Party) to be an election observer. One of the  mod mom   Oct-09-08 09:03 PM   #34 
                 - Excellent  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:04 AM   #38 
        - Yes, I have. I read ER. I also have read the material that contradicts the dire viewpoint.  melody   Oct-09-08 04:05 PM   #18 
           - What material?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:56 PM   #27 
              - please refer to post #19 n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 07:21 PM   #29 
                 - Please butt out  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:40 PM   #30 
                    - you're calling out someone who put you on ignore  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:14 PM   #31 
                       - Oh, she'll read it.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 08:26 PM   #32 
                          - mod mom's post to Febble?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 09:00 PM   #33 
                             - Heh  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:20 PM   #35 
                                - BeFree, let me clarify my position  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:27 AM   #40 
                                - wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:15 AM   #41 
                                   - Well  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:34 AM   #43 
                                      - Yes, I think that is a good idea  Febble   Oct-10-08 12:13 PM   #44 
                                      - as Febble noted, it's already being done  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:38 PM   #45 
                                         - Eh?  BeFree   Oct-10-08 02:58 PM   #46 
                                            - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 03:09 PM   #48 
                                               - The subject is now...  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:15 PM   #49 
                                                  - depends on whom I'm trying to help  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 04:32 PM   #50 
        - That Post Was Neither Optimistic Nor Pessimistic  AndyTiedye   Oct-10-08 01:43 AM   #37 
        - We won in 2000 and 2004, too  vanboggie   Oct-13-08 01:16 AM   #54 
  - Example: Vote denials in Montana  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:21 AM   #4 
     - Illegal Purges  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:40 PM   #9 
        - Congress  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:59 PM   #10 
           - The Bradley Effect Idea...Destroyed!!  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:34 PM   #12 
              - Rove  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:56 PM   #36 
                 - NC Dole vs Hagan  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:29 AM   #42 
                    - 12 newspapers endorse Obama  BeFree   Oct-12-08 04:49 PM   #53 
 

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