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BeFree Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #12
36. Rove
Rove says that there are still a LOT of voters who might switch at the end . . .

Uncommitteds and Persuadables in Historical Perspective

In an article in today's Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove asserts the following:

What about swing voters? There are probably more undecided and persuadable voters open to switching their choice than in any election since 1968.

Is it true that there are an unusually high number of swing voters this year? Not really, although it may be slightly higher than average. Let's go to the video tape ... err... the Gallup Polling archive.

What I've done here is simply to take the number of unaccounted-for voters in the Gallup survey closest to October 1st of the election year in question. By "unaccounted for" (or "unaccounted") I mean voters that Gallup had not assigned to any particular candidate. This will include your true uncommitteds, as well as refusals and don't-knows, and voters committed to minor party candidates that Gallup did not mention by name.

In the Gallup tracking poll that straddled October 1st, 8 percent of voters were unaccounted for. This figure is significantly higher than 2004, an unusually partisan election in which just 2 percent of voters were unaccounted for. But, it was no higher than 2000 or 1976, and lower than in 1988. On average, since 1936, 6.8 percent of voters were unaccounted for in the Gallup poll as of October 1st, as compared this year's 8 percent; the difference is not statistically significant. If we look only at results since 1960 -- Gallup's polling was a little sketchy in its early years -- the average number of unaccounteds is 6.4 percent. So this year's figure is probably toward the higher end of the spectrum, but well within the normal range.

The number of persuadable voters -- and this is a broader universe, since it includes not only uncommitted voters, but also those who are nominally committed but who could potentially change their minds -- is a little tougher to get a handle on. But the Pew Research Center has some useful data. Since 1992, they have included in their standard battery a question asking whether voters had decided against one or another of the major party candidates. For instance, as of Pew's most recent survey from late last month, 42 percent of voters said they had decided against Senator McCain, and 37 percent said they'd decided against Senator Obama. This leaves 21 percent of voters who are theoretically open to either major party candidate. We can compare these to the Pew numbers released in Early October 1992, Late September 1996, Early October 2000, and Early October 2004.

This year's numbers are right in line with past elections, again with the mild exception of 2004, when an unusually high fraction of the electorate had ruled out either George Bush or John Kerry. And remember, more voters have decided against McCain than Obama. The candidates to exceed the 42 percent of voters who have thus far said "no how, no way, no McCain" were George Bush, Sr. in 1992 (46 percent), Bob Dole in 1996 (44 percent), and John Kerry in 2004 (45 percent), all of whom lost their elections.

There's More...
www.fivethirtyeight.com
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  -Obama IS Going to Win, but..... BeFree  Oct-09-08 10:54 AM   #0 
  - No chance -- we are taking both. n/t  melody   Oct-09-08 11:00 AM   #1 
  - But of course we win honestly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:06 AM   #2 
  - You're consciously putting your head in the sand -- you're pre-determining losing  melody   Oct-09-08 11:31 AM   #5 
     - Hmmmm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:22 PM   #7 
        - BeFree, if you're going to launch into personal attacks, I see you've embraced your viewpoint  melody   Oct-09-08 04:07 PM   #19 
           - melody  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:04 PM   #47 
  - But Since All Republicans Always Vote in Lockstep, We Need 60 to Avoid Endless Filibusters  AndyTiedye   Oct-09-08 11:20 AM   #3 
     - Andy, what will you do when we win? Will you start talking about how we'll surely lose in 2012?  melody   Oct-09-08 11:32 AM   #6 
        - I have to ask  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:26 PM   #8 
        - Yes!  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:26 PM   #11 
        - You, again?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:39 PM   #13 
        - Well, if you win  Febble   Oct-09-08 02:05 PM   #14 
           - Nope. You are wrong.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:19 PM   #15 
           - about what?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:14 PM   #17 
           - Maybe a teensy-weensy  BeFree   Oct-21-08 05:41 PM   #56 
              - link?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-21-08 05:58 PM   #57 
                 - There you go again  BeFree   Oct-28-08 11:36 AM   #58 
           - Exactly what I am starting to worry about, 2010. Or beyond.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:47 PM   #21 
           - Yep  BeFree   Oct-13-08 09:06 AM   #55 
           - I know that you consider  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:00 PM   #23 
              - Ummm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:53 PM   #26 
                 - Something to consider  droidamus2   Oct-11-08 07:32 PM   #51 
                    - Welcome to the ER  BeFree   Oct-11-08 10:51 PM   #52 
           - No matter what happens in this election, the problem will not go away until we correct it.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:38 PM   #20 
              - Yup.  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:01 PM   #24 
              - you know, we all agree about that  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 06:12 PM   #25 
        - Lizzie, Compare 32% vs 80% of voters using e-voting from '04 to '08:  mod mom   Oct-09-08 03:02 PM   #16 
           - I'm not sure of your point  Febble   Oct-09-08 05:58 PM   #22 
              - Yet  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:17 PM   #28 
              - Well, there are two issues here  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:18 AM   #39 
              - I've gone through training (Obama/Dem Party) to be an election observer. One of the  mod mom   Oct-09-08 09:03 PM   #34 
                 - Excellent  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:04 AM   #38 
        - Yes, I have. I read ER. I also have read the material that contradicts the dire viewpoint.  melody   Oct-09-08 04:05 PM   #18 
           - What material?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:56 PM   #27 
              - please refer to post #19 n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 07:21 PM   #29 
                 - Please butt out  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:40 PM   #30 
                    - you're calling out someone who put you on ignore  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:14 PM   #31 
                       - Oh, she'll read it.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 08:26 PM   #32 
                          - mod mom's post to Febble?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 09:00 PM   #33 
                             - Heh  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:20 PM   #35 
                                - BeFree, let me clarify my position  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:27 AM   #40 
                                - wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:15 AM   #41 
                                   - Well  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:34 AM   #43 
                                      - Yes, I think that is a good idea  Febble   Oct-10-08 12:13 PM   #44 
                                      - as Febble noted, it's already being done  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:38 PM   #45 
                                         - Eh?  BeFree   Oct-10-08 02:58 PM   #46 
                                            - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 03:09 PM   #48 
                                               - The subject is now...  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:15 PM   #49 
                                                  - depends on whom I'm trying to help  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 04:32 PM   #50 
        - That Post Was Neither Optimistic Nor Pessimistic  AndyTiedye   Oct-10-08 01:43 AM   #37 
        - We won in 2000 and 2004, too  vanboggie   Oct-13-08 01:16 AM   #54 
  - Example: Vote denials in Montana  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:21 AM   #4 
     - Illegal Purges  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:40 PM   #9 
        - Congress  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:59 PM   #10 
           - The Bradley Effect Idea...Destroyed!!  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:34 PM   #12 
              - Rove  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:56 PM   #36 
                 - NC Dole vs Hagan  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:29 AM   #42 
                    - 12 newspapers endorse Obama  BeFree   Oct-12-08 04:49 PM   #53 
 

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