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Reply #22: I'm not sure of your point [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-09-08 05:58 PM
Response to Reply #16
22. I'm not sure of your point
I don't think massive fraud by e-voting occurred in 2004 (I don't see how it could have, given the complete non-correlation between the exit poll discrepancies and Bush's increase in vote share) so I don't have anything to scale up in 2008.

I do think that voter suppression cost Kerry a great many votes in 2004, and I'm worried that that will scale up in 2008, given that the demographics most likely to be disenfranchised in 2004 are those demographics likely to vote most overwhelmingly for Obama. This is why I think an accurate problem analysis is important. Sure, e-voting needs to be made secure, it needs to be auditable and so on. But unfortunately the opportunity for mandatory manual random audits was missed. So there will most definitely be "glitches" and the e-vote won't accurate reflect the count. It may or may not reflect a bias in favor of McCain. But I don't think, as I said, that the effect was large enough to impact on the exit polls in 2004, and therefore cannot have been large.

That's why I say that at this stage, the overwhelming priority needs to be to make sure that EVERYONE YOU KNOW that is eligible to vote is registered, knows when and where the vote is held, and what they need to do to maximise the chance of it being counted correctly (what to expect on screen, what the races are, what the format is, etc).

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  -Obama IS Going to Win, but..... BeFree  Oct-09-08 10:54 AM   #0 
  - No chance -- we are taking both. n/t  melody   Oct-09-08 11:00 AM   #1 
  - But of course we win honestly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:06 AM   #2 
  - You're consciously putting your head in the sand -- you're pre-determining losing  melody   Oct-09-08 11:31 AM   #5 
     - Hmmmm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:22 PM   #7 
        - BeFree, if you're going to launch into personal attacks, I see you've embraced your viewpoint  melody   Oct-09-08 04:07 PM   #19 
           - melody  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:04 PM   #47 
  - But Since All Republicans Always Vote in Lockstep, We Need 60 to Avoid Endless Filibusters  AndyTiedye   Oct-09-08 11:20 AM   #3 
     - Andy, what will you do when we win? Will you start talking about how we'll surely lose in 2012?  melody   Oct-09-08 11:32 AM   #6 
        - I have to ask  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:26 PM   #8 
        - Yes!  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:26 PM   #11 
        - You, again?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:39 PM   #13 
        - Well, if you win  Febble   Oct-09-08 02:05 PM   #14 
           - Nope. You are wrong.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:19 PM   #15 
           - about what?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:14 PM   #17 
           - Maybe a teensy-weensy  BeFree   Oct-21-08 05:41 PM   #56 
              - link?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-21-08 05:58 PM   #57 
                 - There you go again  BeFree   Oct-28-08 11:36 AM   #58 
           - Exactly what I am starting to worry about, 2010. Or beyond.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:47 PM   #21 
           - Yep  BeFree   Oct-13-08 09:06 AM   #55 
           - I know that you consider  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:00 PM   #23 
              - Ummm  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:53 PM   #26 
                 - Something to consider  droidamus2   Oct-11-08 07:32 PM   #51 
                    - Welcome to the ER  BeFree   Oct-11-08 10:51 PM   #52 
           - No matter what happens in this election, the problem will not go away until we correct it.  demodonkey   Oct-09-08 05:38 PM   #20 
              - Yup.  Febble   Oct-09-08 06:01 PM   #24 
              - you know, we all agree about that  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 06:12 PM   #25 
        - Lizzie, Compare 32% vs 80% of voters using e-voting from '04 to '08:  mod mom   Oct-09-08 03:02 PM   #16 
           - I'm not sure of your point  Febble   Oct-09-08 05:58 PM   #22 
              - Yet  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:17 PM   #28 
              - Well, there are two issues here  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:18 AM   #39 
              - I've gone through training (Obama/Dem Party) to be an election observer. One of the  mod mom   Oct-09-08 09:03 PM   #34 
                 - Excellent  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:04 AM   #38 
        - Yes, I have. I read ER. I also have read the material that contradicts the dire viewpoint.  melody   Oct-09-08 04:05 PM   #18 
           - What material?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 06:56 PM   #27 
              - please refer to post #19 n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 07:21 PM   #29 
                 - Please butt out  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:40 PM   #30 
                    - you're calling out someone who put you on ignore  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:14 PM   #31 
                       - Oh, she'll read it.  BeFree   Oct-09-08 08:26 PM   #32 
                          - mod mom's post to Febble?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 09:00 PM   #33 
                             - Heh  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:20 PM   #35 
                                - BeFree, let me clarify my position  Febble   Oct-10-08 04:27 AM   #40 
                                - wrong again  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:15 AM   #41 
                                   - Well  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:34 AM   #43 
                                      - Yes, I think that is a good idea  Febble   Oct-10-08 12:13 PM   #44 
                                      - as Febble noted, it's already being done  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:38 PM   #45 
                                         - Eh?  BeFree   Oct-10-08 02:58 PM   #46 
                                            - projection much?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 03:09 PM   #48 
                                               - The subject is now...  BeFree   Oct-10-08 03:15 PM   #49 
                                                  - depends on whom I'm trying to help  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 04:32 PM   #50 
        - That Post Was Neither Optimistic Nor Pessimistic  AndyTiedye   Oct-10-08 01:43 AM   #37 
        - We won in 2000 and 2004, too  vanboggie   Oct-13-08 01:16 AM   #54 
  - Example: Vote denials in Montana  BeFree   Oct-09-08 11:21 AM   #4 
     - Illegal Purges  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:40 PM   #9 
        - Congress  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:59 PM   #10 
           - The Bradley Effect Idea...Destroyed!!  BeFree   Oct-09-08 01:34 PM   #12 
              - Rove  BeFree   Oct-09-08 09:56 PM   #36 
                 - NC Dole vs Hagan  BeFree   Oct-10-08 11:29 AM   #42 
                    - 12 newspapers endorse Obama  BeFree   Oct-12-08 04:49 PM   #53 

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