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Reply #20: that may have been the point you intended to make [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-05-08 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. that may have been the point you intended to make
but it isn't the point you actually made. I could quote it to you again and see whether you see it this time!

This time, you're actually quoting an article I coauthored, and I'm flattered -- but I certainly didn't argue that the exit poll data were being used, or should be used, to check the accuracy of the election results. The money quote might be: "This excellent record derived more from careful interpretation of exit poll data combined with election returns than from any uncanny accuracy in the data themselves..." (emphasis added). Some people talk as if the pollsters "call" every race the moment the polls close, but people who actually watch the coverage realize that this isn't true. The standard of "accuracy" here is whether the pollsters eventually make a call they have to retract, not whether the data or models initially point to the eventual winner. (Note that this standard assumes that the official results are correct.)
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