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Reply #20: that may have been the point you intended to make [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-05-08 08:13 AM
Response to Reply #19
20. that may have been the point you intended to make
but it isn't the point you actually made. I could quote it to you again and see whether you see it this time!

This time, you're actually quoting an article I coauthored, and I'm flattered -- but I certainly didn't argue that the exit poll data were being used, or should be used, to check the accuracy of the election results. The money quote might be: "This excellent record derived more from careful interpretation of exit poll data combined with election returns than from any uncanny accuracy in the data themselves..." (emphasis added). Some people talk as if the pollsters "call" every race the moment the polls close, but people who actually watch the coverage realize that this isn't true. The standard of "accuracy" here is whether the pollsters eventually make a call they have to retract, not whether the data or models initially point to the eventual winner. (Note that this standard assumes that the official results are correct.)
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  -Now this again: exit polling is impertinent and irrelevant! ngant17  Oct-03-08 11:09 PM   #0 
  - When I was a young man, way back in the 70's, I did polling work for  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:17 PM   #1 
  - that's a totally different application  ngant17   Oct-03-08 11:39 PM   #3 
     - Exit polling was developed by the media and the polling organizations  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:53 PM   #5 
     - you've been very much misinformed  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 08:56 AM   #9 
        - you can't divorce exit polling from statistical science  ngant17   Oct-04-08 07:19 PM   #17 
           - still some problems here  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 07:56 PM   #18 
              - vote fraud 2008  ngant17   Oct-05-08 09:18 AM   #21 
                 - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 09:45 AM   #22 
                    - Still the song remains the same  ngant17   Oct-05-08 06:29 PM   #26 
                       - for what it's worth  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 07:13 PM   #27 
  - The story is intended not only to attack the credibility of exit polls, but to  Jackpine Radical   Oct-03-08 11:18 PM   #2 
  - Memo to AP: Exit polls have been the gold standard for elections for decades ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-03-08 11:45 PM   #4 
     - I just wrote about this over on this video thread  emlev   Oct-04-08 12:09 AM   #6 
     - Done. Thanks for the heads up. ~nt~  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 12:23 AM   #7 
     - And sometimes those foreign exit polls are domestically sponsored.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 01:30 AM   #8 
     - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 09:05 AM   #10 
        - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 03:51 PM   #11 
           - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Wilms   Oct-04-08 04:15 PM   #12 
           - Exit Polls as gold standard for fair elections 101  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 05:40 PM   #14 
              - not there yet  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 06:26 PM   #15 
              - My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 03:04 AM   #19 
                 - that may have been the point you intended to make  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 08:13 AM   #20 
                    - OK, I stand corrected, but find it more than a little depressing  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 04:19 PM   #23 
                       - Risk-Based Audits is a way to check election results  Wilms   Oct-05-08 04:23 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, I take your point  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 05:12 PM   #25 
              - Thanks for the reference.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 06:41 PM   #16 
           - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 04:41 PM   #13 
 

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