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Reply #19: My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ... [View All]

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99th_Monkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-05-08 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ...
... for "decades" exit polls have had a "reputation for phenomenal accuracy" ... hence the "gold standard" reference.

"Over time, the exit polls acquired a reputation for phenomenal accuracy. From 1967 to 1988, CBS made only five mistakes in approximately fifteen hundred calls. During the 1990s, VNS had only one error in seven hundred projections. This excellent record derived more from careful interpretation of exit poll data combined with election returns than from any uncanny accuracy in the data themselves, a distinction lost on many casual observers. For instance, the 1988 CBS exit poll interviewed more Dukakis voters than Bush voters, although Bush won the election by about eight percentage points. Here, as elsewhere, the unweighted results were misleading. Much (but not all) of the discrepancy can be attributed to an overrepresentation of black voters, which CBS presumably could detect and compensate for as the results came inalthough, seventeen years later, we are unable to reconstruct the election night scene. CBS did incorrectly call one state (Illinois) for Dukakis, although not primarily based on exit poll data."

See middle of page 2 at:
http://www.publicopinionpros.com/from_field/2006/jan/li...
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  -Now this again: exit polling is impertinent and irrelevant! ngant17  Oct-03-08 11:09 PM   #0 
  - When I was a young man, way back in the 70's, I did polling work for  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:17 PM   #1 
  - that's a totally different application  ngant17   Oct-03-08 11:39 PM   #3 
     - Exit polling was developed by the media and the polling organizations  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:53 PM   #5 
     - you've been very much misinformed  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 08:56 AM   #9 
        - you can't divorce exit polling from statistical science  ngant17   Oct-04-08 07:19 PM   #17 
           - still some problems here  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 07:56 PM   #18 
              - vote fraud 2008  ngant17   Oct-05-08 09:18 AM   #21 
                 - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 09:45 AM   #22 
                    - Still the song remains the same  ngant17   Oct-05-08 06:29 PM   #26 
                       - for what it's worth  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 07:13 PM   #27 
  - The story is intended not only to attack the credibility of exit polls, but to  Jackpine Radical   Oct-03-08 11:18 PM   #2 
  - Memo to AP: Exit polls have been the gold standard for elections for decades ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-03-08 11:45 PM   #4 
     - I just wrote about this over on this video thread  emlev   Oct-04-08 12:09 AM   #6 
     - Done. Thanks for the heads up. ~nt~  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 12:23 AM   #7 
     - And sometimes those foreign exit polls are domestically sponsored.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 01:30 AM   #8 
     - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 09:05 AM   #10 
        - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 03:51 PM   #11 
           - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Wilms   Oct-04-08 04:15 PM   #12 
           - Exit Polls as gold standard for fair elections 101  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 05:40 PM   #14 
              - not there yet  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 06:26 PM   #15 
              - My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 03:04 AM   #19 
                 - that may have been the point you intended to make  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 08:13 AM   #20 
                    - OK, I stand corrected, but find it more than a little depressing  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 04:19 PM   #23 
                       - Risk-Based Audits is a way to check election results  Wilms   Oct-05-08 04:23 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, I take your point  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 05:12 PM   #25 
              - Thanks for the reference.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 06:41 PM   #16 
           - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 04:41 PM   #13 
 

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