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Reply #19: My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ... [View All]

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99th_Monkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Oct-05-08 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #15
19. My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ...
... for "decades" exit polls have had a "reputation for phenomenal accuracy" ... hence the "gold standard" reference.

"Over time, the exit polls acquired a reputation for phenomenal accuracy. From 1967 to 1988, CBS made only five mistakes in approximately fifteen hundred calls. During the 1990s, VNS had only one error in seven hundred projections. This excellent record derived more from careful interpretation of exit poll data combined with election returns than from any uncanny accuracy in the data themselves, a distinction lost on many casual observers. For instance, the 1988 CBS exit poll interviewed more Dukakis voters than Bush voters, although Bush won the election by about eight percentage points. Here, as elsewhere, the unweighted results were misleading. Much (but not all) of the discrepancy can be attributed to an overrepresentation of black voters, which CBS presumably could detect and compensate for as the results came inalthough, seventeen years later, we are unable to reconstruct the election night scene. CBS did incorrectly call one state (Illinois) for Dukakis, although not primarily based on exit poll data."

See middle of page 2 at:
http://www.publicopinionpros.com/from_field/2006/jan/li...
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