Reply #15: not there yet

[OnTheOtherHand]

Karen Parker Lears appears to be a bit out of her field here, but setting that aside, to say that exit polls are "the gold standard of polling" is not to say that they're the "gold standard for fair elections."

Your quotation of Shapiro and Parmalee quoting Morin is at least about using exit polls to confirm election results, but gets nowhere near your claim that "international election monitoring organizations" rely on them. Actually, if you clicked through to Beltran's article "Warren in Mexico," you know that Mitofsky's polls there were commissioned by Mexican media. If Mitofsky ever worked for an international election monitoring organization, that would be interesting to know.

(It might be worth mentioning that Shapiro and Parmalee appear convinced that the 2004 U.S. exit poll was erroneous, but maybe you agree with that.)