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Reply #14: Exit Polls as gold standard for fair elections 101 [View All]

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99th_Monkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-04-08 05:40 PM
Response to Reply #12
14. Exit Polls as gold standard for fair elections 101
"This is the book I have been waiting for. Freeman and Bleifuss are reasonable, balanced, and insistent--addressing the questions about the 2004 elections that won't go away. They specifically target the exit polls and explore how these exit polls (the gold standard of polling) could have been so far off from the official count in so many states. Readers will have the opportunity to step outside a comfortable conventional wisdom, not into a world of conspiracies but into the territory of careful searching, combining the best features of science and true investigative journalism."
http://www.electionintegrity.org/book.shtml
Karen Parker Lears, Raritan Review (Rutgers University)

"Election day voters polls are commonly called exit polls, since the data are collected from voters as they exit their places of voting. The person best known for developing exit polls was a statistician named Warren Mitofsky, who died last September 1. According to Richard Morin, then polling director for The Washington Post, Mitofsky introduced exit polling to the world, including to countries new to democracy and free elections. His reputation for accuracy and independencea reputation he fiercely guardedmade his exit polls the gold standard with which election results were compared and confirmed. And yet exit polls have been surrounded by controversy in recent years, with some questioning the accuracyand hence the valueof the data they yield."
http://www.publicopinionpros.com/features/2007/jan/shap...
--Robert Y. Shapiro and Lisa Ferraro Parmelee (Robert Y. Shapiro is a professor of political science at Columbia University. Lisa Ferraro Parmelee is the editor of Public Opinion Pros.)
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  -Now this again: exit polling is impertinent and irrelevant! ngant17  Oct-03-08 11:09 PM   #0 
  - When I was a young man, way back in the 70's, I did polling work for  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:17 PM   #1 
  - that's a totally different application  ngant17   Oct-03-08 11:39 PM   #3 
     - Exit polling was developed by the media and the polling organizations  WCGreen   Oct-03-08 11:53 PM   #5 
     - you've been very much misinformed  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 08:56 AM   #9 
        - you can't divorce exit polling from statistical science  ngant17   Oct-04-08 07:19 PM   #17 
           - still some problems here  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 07:56 PM   #18 
              - vote fraud 2008  ngant17   Oct-05-08 09:18 AM   #21 
                 - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 09:45 AM   #22 
                    - Still the song remains the same  ngant17   Oct-05-08 06:29 PM   #26 
                       - for what it's worth  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 07:13 PM   #27 
  - The story is intended not only to attack the credibility of exit polls, but to  Jackpine Radical   Oct-03-08 11:18 PM   #2 
  - Memo to AP: Exit polls have been the gold standard for elections for decades ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-03-08 11:45 PM   #4 
     - I just wrote about this over on this video thread  emlev   Oct-04-08 12:09 AM   #6 
     - Done. Thanks for the heads up. ~nt~  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 12:23 AM   #7 
     - And sometimes those foreign exit polls are domestically sponsored.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 01:30 AM   #8 
     - O RLY?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 09:05 AM   #10 
        - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 03:51 PM   #11 
           - Exit Polls in Ukraine  Wilms   Oct-04-08 04:15 PM   #12 
           - Exit Polls as gold standard for fair elections 101  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-04-08 05:40 PM   #14 
              - not there yet  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 06:26 PM   #15 
              - My point was/is, NOT that exit polls are ALWAYS 100% accurate, but that ...  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 03:04 AM   #19 
                 - that may have been the point you intended to make  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 08:13 AM   #20 
                    - OK, I stand corrected, but find it more than a little depressing  Impeachment_Monkey   Oct-05-08 04:19 PM   #23 
                       - Risk-Based Audits is a way to check election results  Wilms   Oct-05-08 04:23 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, I take your point  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-05-08 05:12 PM   #25 
              - Thanks for the reference.  Wilms   Oct-04-08 06:41 PM   #16 
           - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-04-08 04:41 PM   #13 
 

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