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Reply #9: you've been very much misinformed [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-04-08 09:56 AM
Response to Reply #3
9. you've been very much misinformed
You're welcome to interpret exit polling as a "variation of a process control" if you want, but that isn't what it was invented for in the United States, as the other poster has explained.

This isn't to say that exit polling is a "pseudo-science." Blind faith in exit polling is pseudoscience. We can try to interpret the data as process control data, but we can't simply assume its accuracy. (That would be true, of course, even if the data were collected for process control.)

I have no idea why you linked to the US Count Votes paper you did: as far as I can tell, it has nothing to do with exit polls. As for US Count Votes generally, the analysts never really got around to assessing the evidence. Most of them peeled off in mid-2005.

As I've mentioned many times here, the exit poll Best Geo projections indicate that Kerry won Pennsylvania by about 14 points, and New Hampshire by 15 points, and New York by over 30 points (and so on). I don't think any knowledgeable political observer believes any of these estimates.

Of course, the exit polls could be "wrong" and still contain useful information about vote miscount. Analyses such as this one indicate that, at best, the 2004 exit polls contained very little such information. The exit polls actually do not support the inference of massive, widespread miscount favoring Bush.

If you are interested in discussing these issues, I'm happy to do that.
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