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tiptoe (1000+ posts) Send PM  Profile  Ignore  Sat Sep2008 07:33 PM Original message 
9/20 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): 98.5% OBAMA EV WIN PROBABILITY (4926 WINS/5000 SIMULATION TRIALS) 
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Edited on Sat Sep2008 07:50 PM by tiptoe
2008 ELECTION MODEL A Monte Carlo Electoral Vote Simulation Updated: September 20 Press REFRESH after linking to a graph to view the latest update 2008 Election Model Fraud Analyzer
15Poll End Sample Poll NATIONAL MODEL Pre UVA 5Poll Mov Avg 2Party Projection (60% UVA) 5Poll Mov Avg Trend Rasmussen Gallup Hotline/FD Quinnipiac CBS/NYT Zogby Ipsos Pew Research Newsweek AP/gFk FOX News NBC/WSJ CBS/NYT CNN ABC/WP Registered V vs Likely V Poll Averages Date 9/19 9/19 9/18 9/16 9/16 9/15 9/15 9/14 9/11 9/10 9/09 9/08 9/07 9/07 9/07 Size 3000 LV 2796 RV 915 RV 987 LV 800 LV 1008 LV 1046 RV 2307 LV 1038 RV 812 RV 900 RV 1000 RV 655 RV 942 RV 1000 LV RV avg LV avg Total MoE 1.79% 1.85% 3.24% 3.12% 3.46% 3.09% 3.03% 2.04% 3.04% 3.44% 3.27% 3.10% 3.83% 3.19% 3.10% Obama 48 50 45 49 49 47 45 46 46 44 42 46 44 48 47 45.6 47.7 46.4 McCain 47 44 44 45 44 45 45 46 46 48 45 45 46 48 49 45.7 46.0 45.8 Other 5 6 11 6 7 8 10 8 8 8 13 9 10 4 4 8.8 6.3 7.8 Spread 1 6 1 4 5 2 0 0 0 (4) (3) 1 (2) 0 (2) (0.1) 1.7 0.6 Obama 48.2 48.0 47.0 47.2 46.6 45.6 44.6 44.8 44.4 44.8 45.4 45.0 44.6 45.0 43.8 McCain 44.8 44.4 44.6 45.0 45.2 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.4 46.6 46.6 48.4 47.2 46.0 Spread 3.4 3.6 2.4 2.2 1.4 (0.4) (1.4) (1.2) (1.6) (1.6) (1.2) (1.6) (3.8) (2.2) (2.2) Obama 52.40 52.6 52.0 51.9 51.5 50.6 50.2 50.3 50.2 50.1 50.2 50.0 48.8 49.7 49.9 McCain 47.60 47.4 48.0 48.1 48.5 49.4 49.8 49.7 49.8 49.9 49.8 50.0 51.2 50.3 50.1 Spread 4.8 5.1 4.1 3.8 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.1 (2.4) (0.6) (0.2) Win Prob 99.6 99.7 89.1 88.1 80.5 65.8 56.2 62.1 54.1 51.8 54.8 51.0 27.0 42.2 48.0 Obama’s EV and Popular Vote Win Probability Assuming the election is held today, Obama’s win probability as calculated by fivethirtyeight.com (71.5%) is not consistent with their projected 303–235 EV. The Election Model uses a 5000election trial Monte Carlo simulation. The model projects that if a fraudfree election is held today, Obama would win 323–215 Electoral votes with 51.1% of the twoparty vote. The EV win probability is a simple calculation: Obama won 4926 of 5000 simulated election trials; his win probability is therefore 98.5% (4926/5000). It’s a snapshot which changes slightly every day. The model indicates that for the same 303235 EV split, Obama’s EV win probability is 92% (assuming he wins just 50% of the undecided vote). Since the probability calculations in both models are based on the latest state polls, there is obviously a difference in methodology between the models. The Election Model base case scenario assumes that Obama will win 60% of the undecided vote. And this is conservative, as he is presumed to be the challenger (McSame is running for the third Bush term). View the Election Model Electoral Vote Simulation Frequency chart. Note that 4926 (98.5%) of the 5000 simulated election trials are over 270 for Obama. Compare this result to the equivalent fivethirtyeight.com chart in which 28.5% of the trials which McCain won are in red, while the 71.5% Obama won are in blue. The chart should be 98.5% blue. Obama also leads the National projection model (based on the average of the latest 5 national polls) with 52.4% of the 2party vote. Note that the national polls lead the state polls, so that we can expect a rise in Obama’s expected EV and win probability. The national model also assumes that he will win 60% of the undecided vote. The probability that he will win the popular vote is over 98%. As of Sept.20, electoralvote.com has Obama leading by 273–265; realclearpolitics has him losing by 202–216 (120 tossup); fivethirtyeight.com has Obama by 303–235. But the 2008 Election Model (EM) had Obama leading: 323–215. Why the difference? Why Election Model projections differ from the Media, Academia and the Bloggers There are a variety of election forecasting models used in academia, the media and internet election sites. The corporate MSM (CNN, MSNBC, FOX, CBS, etc.) sponsors national polls to track the “horserace” and state polls to calculate the electoral vote. And why don’t they mention the fraud factor? If just 2% of votes cast are uncounted (2.74% were in 2004) and 4% of Obama’s votes are switched electronically to McCain, McCain will win by 293–245 EV with 51.2% of the twoparty vote. • The EM uses Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method to calculate the probability of winning the electoral vote. Monte Carlo is widely used to analyze diverse riskbased models when an analytical solution is impractical or impossible. The EM is updated weekly based on the latest state and national polls. The model projects the popular and electoral vote, assuming both clean and fraudulent election scenarios. The EM allocates the electoral vote based on the state win probability in calculating a more realistic total Expected EV. • Corporate MSM pollsters and media pundits use state and national polling data. Electoral vote projections are misleading, since they are calculated based on the latest state polls regardless of the spread; the state poll leader gets all of its electoral votes. This is statistically incorrect; they do not consider state win probabilities. And there is no adjustment for the allocation of undecided voters. For example, assume that McCain leads by 51–49% in each of five states with a total of 100 electoral votes. Most models would simply assign the 100 EV to McCain. But that is an oversimplification: Obama could easily win one or more of the states, since his win probability is 31% :
• Bloggers also track state and national polls and do not adjust for undecided voters. A few use Monte Carlo simulation, but the EV win probabilities and frequency distributions are NOT consistent with the polling data. Either the state win probabilities and/or the simulation algorithm is incorrect. • Academic regression models predict the popular vote but are run months prior to the election. They are typically based on economic and political factors rather than state or national polling data. They do not project the electoral vote. In 2004, virtually all of them forecast Bush to win by 510%. But since the election was stolen, the models had to be wrong — they didn’t factor election fraud as an independent variable in the regression. In fact, they never even mentioned the Fword in describing their methodologies. Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV There has been much discussion regarding the recent McCain “surge” in the national polls. Most national and state polls are sponsored by the corporate MSM. Gallup, Rasmussen and other national polls recently increased the Republican Party ID percentage weighting. This had the immediate effect of boosting McCain’s poll numbers. But there are 11 million more registered Democrats than registered Republicans. USA Today/Gallup changed the poll method from RV to LV right after the Republican convention. PartyID weights were manipulated to favor McCain as well. There is a consistent discrepancy between Registered Voter (RV) and Likely Voter (LV) Polls. The Democrats always do better in RV polls. No wonder: Since 1988, Democratic presidential candidates have won new voters by an average 14% margin. The manipulation of polling weights is nothing new. Recall that the 2004 and 2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the recorded vote miscount. But all category crosstabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the Final Exit Poll (state and national) is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent — as it was in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006. This cannot be emphasized enough. Say it loud, again and again. In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 38–35 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix. Kerry won the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 51–48%. ( 13,047 random sample, 1% MoE ) The mix was changed to 37–37 in the Final NEP to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote; Bush won the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 51–48%. Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 39–41 to 37–43 in the Final ('13047' & '13660' here). Bush was the official winner by 50.7–48.3% with 286 EV. The final 2004 Election Model projection indicated that Kerry would win 337–201 EV with 51.8% of the 2party vote. In their Jan. 2005 report, exit pollsters EdisonMitofsky provided the average exit poll discrepancy for each state based on 1250 total precincts. Kerry won the unadjusted aggregate state exit poll vote share by 52.0–47.0% (2party 52.5%) with 337 electoral votes — exactly matching the Election Model! In the 2006 midterms, the 7pm Preliminary NEP had a 39–35 Democratic/Republican weighting mix. The Democrats won that NEP by 55–43%. But the weights were changed to 38–36 in the Final NEP in order to match the 52–46% recorded vote; the Dem 12% margin was cut in half. Once again, the 'Voted 2004' weights were transformed: from Bush/Kerry 47–45 at 7pm to 49–43 in the Final. The landslide was denied; 1020 Dem seats were stolen. The “dead heat” claimed by pollsters, bloggers and the media is a canard — unless they are factoring fraud into their models and not telling us. The media desperately wants a horserace, and so they fail to adjust the polls for undecided and newly registered voters. They avoid McCain’s gaffes, flipflops and plagiarisms, while he supports the most unpopular president in history. Polling data source: Electoralvote.com RealClearPolitics.com
Full Update, with State Model: http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph... If nominating, click here to recommend the full update above 
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