OnTheOtherHand
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Thu Oct-09-08 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #111 |
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"so dastardly discount their efforts"?
I can't tell whether you are actually this confused, or not. Whatever.
"Even when, for example, the most recent exit polls in the primaries were used by the same networks to call elections as soon as polls closed."
In which states? I assume you noticed that the competitive states were not called "as soon as polls closed."
"You see why I have such a problem accepting your statements as truths?"
Nope, not a clue. I've never worked for the pollsters, so I'm sure you'll trust me, right?
|
| -Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? |
garybeck |
Sep-19-08 11:33 PM |
#0 |
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The Reicht wing would slam them as biased and the MSM would help. |
yourout |
Sep-19-08 11:35 PM |
#1 |
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Neither the GOP or the GOP-controlled media have any room to talk. n/t |
ColbertWatcher |
Sep-19-08 11:39 PM |
#3 |
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slam as they want, if the UN and other international orgs endorse it, they'll look pretty foolish.nt |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 12:30 AM |
#4 |
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Why don't you ask the UN, Carter Center, et al if they recommend exit polls |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 02:01 AM |
#7 |
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The group who did them for decades was reliable and non partisan, give them real tools again |
Hestia |
Sep-19-08 11:38 PM |
#2 |
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is it possible someone is currently doing unbiased polling already, but we're |
diva77 |
Sep-20-08 01:52 AM |
#5 |
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I'm sure we'd know about it. n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 01:56 AM |
#6 |
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If we had our shit together, we wouldn't still be hanging hopes on exit polls. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:22 AM |
#8 |
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The media will not touch exit polls because they were fudged with during the 2004 |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 12:26 PM |
#9 |
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oh, they will touch them again |
democraticinsurgent |
Sep-20-08 04:45 PM |
#10 |
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During the 2006 election they just asked people where they stood on issues |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 06:49 PM |
#11 |
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sorry, this simply isn't true |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 06:55 PM |
#12 |
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Well they were not reporting said exit polls on the news. I haven't done |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 07:11 PM |
#13 |
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sure, there is renewed caution in interpretation |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:11 PM |
#16 |
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they wouldn't even release the raw exit poll data |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 08:31 PM |
#17 |
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why? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:46 PM |
#19 |
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Who cares what he was going to do with the raw exit poll data? |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:01 PM |
#20 |
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did he try to impound the ballots? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 09:21 PM |
#21 |
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NVRI went to court for that. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:43 PM |
#23 |
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why should you care what he's going to do with it? |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 09:35 PM |
#22 |
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Again, I think it's his perogative (and a good idea) to try to grab up what he can. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:56 PM |
#24 |
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yeah, that too. my suggestion |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 10:02 PM |
#26 |
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I certainly realize you aren't recommending abandoning other reform efforts. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:17 PM |
#29 |
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'most in the ER community would be OK with ' |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 10:50 PM |
#38 |
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Audits are tough to push. But NJ wound up with a risk-based audit. That's good news. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 09:14 AM |
#41 |
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but what? n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:13 PM |
#48 |
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Inefficient. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 05:11 PM |
#61 |
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less efficient than hand counting all the ballots? n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 11:26 PM |
#74 |
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I'm saying inefficient because 10% is too much sometimes, and way to little at others. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 11:36 PM |
#76 |
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why I like Simon's method |
garybeck |
Sep-22-08 11:10 PM |
#98 |
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I forgot VT has a flat two percent audit. |
Wilms |
Sep-23-08 01:08 AM |
#101 |
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Actually we don't have a flat 2% audit |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:21 PM |
#104 |
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IGNORE - |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:24 PM |
#105 |
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ignore |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:25 PM |
#106 |
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Not so inefficient except for not-so-close races but... |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 11:34 PM |
#75 |
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ethics |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:41 PM |
#44 |
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bullshit |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:12 PM |
#47 |
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go ahead and shoot the messenger |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:02 PM |
#53 |
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Data |
BeFree |
Sep-21-08 04:24 PM |
#58 |
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this is mostly unreadable |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 06:21 PM |
#62 |
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On the subj. of confidentiality... |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 10:57 PM |
#70 |
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sure, I'm happy to explain it again |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:28 AM |
#80 |
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Well, the problem is |
Febble |
Oct-10-08 03:58 AM |
#121 |
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I'm sorry |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 12:50 PM |
#108 |
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flame bait |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 03:24 PM |
#113 |
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Of course |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 07:37 PM |
#115 |
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Sigh |
Febble |
Oct-09-08 01:43 PM |
#109 |
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Says who? |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 02:29 PM |
#111 |
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And |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 02:33 PM |
#112 |
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huh? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 03:43 PM |
#114 |
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You don't need to look it up |
Febble |
Oct-10-08 03:54 AM |
#120 |
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Oh they could have been rigged if the GOP sent out a meme to the |
applegrove |
Sep-21-08 11:06 AM |
#42 |
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I agree completely. I think that's the scientific answer. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 07:35 PM |
#14 |
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malarkey |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:07 PM |
#15 |
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Malarkey? How can that be? Within the exit poll margin of error? |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 09:57 PM |
#25 |
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What, you don't think there can be a 20% MoE in one precinct? |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:27 PM |
#34 |
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Precint results from Duval county (spreadsheet). |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:50 PM |
#37 |
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Well, if you exit poll 165 voters, there's a margin of error of +/- 10% |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 10:37 PM |
#67 |
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How many of the respondents said they voted for two presidents? |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 10:46 PM |
#68 |
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My reasoning is that there are NOT enough voters polled in a precinct |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 11:13 PM |
#72 |
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That's right. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 12:02 AM |
#78 |
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what's right?! |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 06:45 AM |
#82 |
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I think you are being intentionally obtuse. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 09:19 AM |
#84 |
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you think *I* am being intentionally obtuse? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 09:42 AM |
#86 |
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What is it you don't understand? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 05:42 PM |
#88 |
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"They did this because of the high overvote rate in heavily Gore precints." |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:58 PM |
#91 |
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Malarkey ring any bells. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:34 PM |
#92 |
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flame war is your best play? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 06:39 PM |
#93 |
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Flame war? What is wrong with you? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:55 PM |
#95 |
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I'm damn sick of your stonewalling |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 07:29 PM |
#96 |
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You keep accusing me of behavior that I haven't done. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 11:17 PM |
#99 |
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the thing you "haven't done" is to support your claims |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-23-08 05:00 AM |
#102 |
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Here's a simplified illustration of what happened in Duval County. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 12:41 AM |
#79 |
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the MoE within individual counties? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 08:01 AM |
#40 |
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Glad you cleared that up. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 11:08 AM |
#43 |
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it isn't a matter of "understanding" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:44 PM |
#45 |
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I didn't know any of what I claimed was in dispute. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 02:24 PM |
#51 |
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"where votes were missing in the returns" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:09 PM |
#56 |
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Yes, you do seem to be flummoxed. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 09:37 PM |
#65 |
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you say it's the point, but you aren't supporting it: |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:52 AM |
#81 |
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Yes, it was odd to me that the VNS guy was on live. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 09:13 AM |
#83 |
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is this intended as satire? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 09:44 AM |
#87 |
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This is a very simplistic graph for you. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 05:46 PM |
#89 |
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no, your claim was about EXIT POLLS |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:52 PM |
#90 |
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What is it exactly that you think I am claiming that is smoke? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:48 PM |
#94 |
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"OBVIOUSLY, the MOE was such that they made the call early for FL." |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 07:32 PM |
#97 |
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You think they blew the call? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 11:29 PM |
#100 |
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you are amazingly obtuse |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-23-08 05:21 AM |
#103 |
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"THEY BLEW THE CALL!!" |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 10:06 AM |
#107 |
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yeah, they blew the call |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 08:09 PM |
#116 |
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They called Florida correctly |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 10:05 PM |
#118 |
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no, they should not have called Florida at all |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-10-08 05:03 AM |
#122 |
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"...isn't true at all"? Then help me here. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 08:32 PM |
#18 |
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Here ya go! |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:13 PM |
#27 |
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I spent three weeks in the third world and had some great meals served that way. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:19 PM |
#30 |
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You mean New York? nt |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:21 PM |
#32 |
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Well, NY too. But I was there much longer. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:29 PM |
#35 |
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I guess that's a fair question. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:17 PM |
#28 |
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Oh, and that's a fair comment. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:25 PM |
#33 |
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Full-nightmare mode, to be sure. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:41 PM |
#36 |
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I think that's close to what we have |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:48 PM |
#46 |
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Well then they weren't smart enough to widen the sample. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 04:56 PM |
#59 |
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"what we need is a secure voting system" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 06:30 PM |
#63 |
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And, interestingly |
Febble |
Oct-09-08 01:49 PM |
#110 |
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MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 10:48 PM |
#69 |
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I agree, Exit Polls should be required reading at the Academy! |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:20 PM |
#31 |
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Because a close election will always be... |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 01:06 AM |
#39 |
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2004 wasn't close. that's the point. |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:20 PM |
#49 |
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Uncle. |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 01:57 PM |
#50 |
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Neither was FL 2000. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 02:27 PM |
#52 |
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Imho, both FL/2000 & OH/2004 were within ... |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 03:06 PM |
#54 |
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I don't even know what that means. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 09:45 PM |
#66 |
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it was close on both |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:11 PM |
#57 |
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Suggested plan B if the independent exit polling organization doesn't happen |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 03:07 PM |
#55 |
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and that will... |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 04:57 PM |
#60 |
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I would think it would shine a brighter light on polls that are |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 08:25 PM |
#64 |
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I think the rationale for exit polls is a little different. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 11:04 PM |
#71 |
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This you may enjoy. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 11:18 PM |
#73 |
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thanks, Wilms! hmmm..maybe we have our new "it-girl" pollster |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 11:51 PM |
#77 |
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Aaak! |
Wilms |
Sep-22-08 09:30 AM |
#85 |
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FOLKS, THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING! CHECK THIS OUT! |
garybeck |
Oct-09-08 09:35 PM |
#117 |
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K&R and how to support the Election Verification Polling |
emlev |
Oct-10-08 12:21 AM |
#119 |
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The ACORN solution |
jagerbb |
Oct-10-08 11:02 AM |
#123 |
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I'm thinking you are on the wrong board n/t |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-10-08 12:31 PM |
#124 |
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