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Reply #69: MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! [View All]

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Usrename Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Sep-21-08 10:48 PM
Response to Reply #59
69. MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!
:think:
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  -Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? garybeck  Sep-19-08 11:33 PM   #0 
  - The Reicht wing would slam them as biased and the MSM would help.  yourout   Sep-19-08 11:35 PM   #1 
  - Neither the GOP or the GOP-controlled media have any room to talk. n/t  ColbertWatcher   Sep-19-08 11:39 PM   #3 
  - slam as they want, if the UN and other international orgs endorse it, they'll look pretty foolish.nt  garybeck   Sep-20-08 12:30 AM   #4 
     - Why don't you ask the UN, Carter Center, et al if they recommend exit polls  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 02:01 AM   #7 
  - The group who did them for decades was reliable and non partisan, give them real tools again  Hestia   Sep-19-08 11:38 PM   #2 
  - is it possible someone is currently doing unbiased polling already, but we're  diva77   Sep-20-08 01:52 AM   #5 
  - I'm sure we'd know about it. n/t  garybeck   Sep-20-08 01:56 AM   #6 
  - If we had our shit together, we wouldn't still be hanging hopes on exit polls. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:22 AM   #8 
  - The media will not touch exit polls because they were fudged with during the 2004  applegrove   Sep-20-08 12:26 PM   #9 
  - oh, they will touch them again  democraticinsurgent   Sep-20-08 04:45 PM   #10 
     - During the 2006 election they just asked people where they stood on issues  applegrove   Sep-20-08 06:49 PM   #11 
        - sorry, this simply isn't true  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 06:55 PM   #12 
           - Well they were not reporting said exit polls on the news. I haven't done  applegrove   Sep-20-08 07:11 PM   #13 
              - sure, there is renewed caution in interpretation  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:11 PM   #16 
                 - they wouldn't even release the raw exit poll data  garybeck   Sep-20-08 08:31 PM   #17 
                 - why?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:46 PM   #19 
                    - Who cares what he was going to do with the raw exit poll data?  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:01 PM   #20 
                    - did he try to impound the ballots?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 09:21 PM   #21 
                       - NVRI went to court for that. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:43 PM   #23 
                    - why should you care what he's going to do with it?  garybeck   Sep-20-08 09:35 PM   #22 
                       - Again, I think it's his perogative (and a good idea) to try to grab up what he can.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:56 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, that too. my suggestion  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:02 PM   #26 
                          - I certainly realize you aren't recommending abandoning other reform efforts.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #29 
                             - 'most in the ER community would be OK with '  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #38 
                                - Audits are tough to push. But NJ wound up with a risk-based audit. That's good news.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 09:14 AM   #41 
                                   - but what? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:13 PM   #48 
                                      - Inefficient. n/t  Wilms   Sep-21-08 05:11 PM   #61 
                                         - less efficient than hand counting all the ballots? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 11:26 PM   #74 
                                         - I'm saying inefficient because 10% is too much sometimes, and way to little at others.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:36 PM   #76 
                                            - why I like Simon's method  garybeck   Sep-22-08 11:10 PM   #98 
                                            - I forgot VT has a flat two percent audit.  Wilms   Sep-23-08 01:08 AM   #101 
                                            - Actually we don't have a flat 2% audit  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:21 PM   #104 
                                            - IGNORE -  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:24 PM   #105 
                                            - ignore  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:25 PM   #106 
                                         - Not so inefficient except for not-so-close races but...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:34 PM   #75 
                       - ethics  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:41 PM   #44 
                       - bullshit  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:12 PM   #47 
                          - go ahead and shoot the messenger  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:02 PM   #53 
                             - Data  BeFree   Sep-21-08 04:24 PM   #58 
                                - this is mostly unreadable  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:21 PM   #62 
                                   - On the subj. of confidentiality...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:57 PM   #70 
                                   - sure, I'm happy to explain it again  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:28 AM   #80 
                                   - Well, the problem is  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:58 AM   #121 
                                   - I'm sorry  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:50 PM   #108 
                                      - flame bait  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:24 PM   #113 
                                         - Of course  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:37 PM   #115 
                       - Sigh  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:43 PM   #109 
                          - Says who?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:29 PM   #111 
                             - And  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:33 PM   #112 
                             - huh?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:43 PM   #114 
                             - You don't need to look it up  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:54 AM   #120 
                 - Oh they could have been rigged if the GOP sent out a meme to the  applegrove   Sep-21-08 11:06 AM   #42 
  - I agree completely. I think that's the scientific answer.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 07:35 PM   #14 
  - malarkey  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:07 PM   #15 
  - Malarkey? How can that be? Within the exit poll margin of error?  Usrename   Sep-20-08 09:57 PM   #25 
     - What, you don't think there can be a 20% MoE in one precinct?  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:27 PM   #34 
     - Precint results from Duval county (spreadsheet).  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #37 
        - Well, if you exit poll 165 voters, there's a margin of error of +/- 10%  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:37 PM   #67 
           - How many of the respondents said they voted for two presidents?  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:46 PM   #68 
              - My reasoning is that there are NOT enough voters polled in a precinct  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:13 PM   #72 
                 - That's right.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:02 AM   #78 
                 - what's right?!  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:45 AM   #82 
                    - I think you are being intentionally obtuse.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:19 AM   #84 
                       - you think *I* am being intentionally obtuse?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:42 AM   #86 
                          - What is it you don't understand?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:42 PM   #88 
                             - "They did this because of the high overvote rate in heavily Gore precints."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:58 PM   #91 
                                - Malarkey ring any bells.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:34 PM   #92 
                                   - flame war is your best play?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:39 PM   #93 
                                      - Flame war? What is wrong with you?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:55 PM   #95 
                                         - I'm damn sick of your stonewalling  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:29 PM   #96 
                                            - You keep accusing me of behavior that I haven't done.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:17 PM   #99 
                                            - the thing you "haven't done" is to support your claims  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:00 AM   #102 
                 - Here's a simplified illustration of what happened in Duval County.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:41 AM   #79 
     - the MoE within individual counties?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 08:01 AM   #40 
        - Glad you cleared that up.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:08 AM   #43 
           - it isn't a matter of "understanding"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:44 PM   #45 
              - I didn't know any of what I claimed was in dispute.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:24 PM   #51 
                 - "where votes were missing in the returns"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:09 PM   #56 
                    - Yes, you do seem to be flummoxed.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:37 PM   #65 
                       - you say it's the point, but you aren't supporting it:  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 AM   #81 
                          - Yes, it was odd to me that the VNS guy was on live.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:13 AM   #83 
                             - is this intended as satire?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:44 AM   #87 
                                - This is a very simplistic graph for you.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:46 PM   #89 
                                   - no, your claim was about EXIT POLLS  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 PM   #90 
                                      - What is it exactly that you think I am claiming that is smoke?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:48 PM   #94 
                                         - "OBVIOUSLY, the MOE was such that they made the call early for FL."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:32 PM   #97 
                                            - You think they blew the call?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:29 PM   #100 
                                               - you are amazingly obtuse  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:21 AM   #103 
                                                  - "THEY BLEW THE CALL!!"  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:06 AM   #107 
                                                  - yeah, they blew the call  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:09 PM   #116 
                                                  - They called Florida correctly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:05 PM   #118 
                                                  - no, they should not have called Florida at all  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:03 AM   #122 
  - "...isn't true at all"? Then help me here.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 08:32 PM   #18 
  - Here ya go!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:13 PM   #27 
  - I spent three weeks in the third world and had some great meals served that way.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:19 PM   #30 
     - You mean New York? nt  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:21 PM   #32 
        - Well, NY too. But I was there much longer.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:29 PM   #35 
  - I guess that's a fair question.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #28 
     - Oh, and that's a fair comment.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:25 PM   #33 
        - Full-nightmare mode, to be sure.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:41 PM   #36 
        - I think that's close to what we have  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:48 PM   #46 
           - Well then they weren't smart enough to widen the sample.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:56 PM   #59 
              - "what we need is a secure voting system"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:30 PM   #63 
              - And, interestingly  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:49 PM   #110 
              - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:48 PM   #69 
  - I agree, Exit Polls should be required reading at the Academy!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:20 PM   #31 
  - Because a close election will always be...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:06 AM   #39 
  - 2004 wasn't close. that's the point.  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:20 PM   #49 
     - Uncle.  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:57 PM   #50 
     - Neither was FL 2000.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:27 PM   #52 
        - Imho, both FL/2000 & OH/2004 were within ...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 03:06 PM   #54 
           - I don't even know what that means.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:45 PM   #66 
     - it was close on both  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:11 PM   #57 
  - Suggested plan B if the independent exit polling organization doesn't happen  diva77   Sep-21-08 03:07 PM   #55 
  - and that will...  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:57 PM   #60 
     - I would think it would shine a brighter light on polls that are  diva77   Sep-21-08 08:25 PM   #64 
        - I think the rationale for exit polls is a little different.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:04 PM   #71 
        - This you may enjoy.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:18 PM   #73 
           - thanks, Wilms! hmmm..maybe we have our new "it-girl" pollster  diva77   Sep-21-08 11:51 PM   #77 
              - Aaak!  Wilms   Sep-22-08 09:30 AM   #85 
  - FOLKS, THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING! CHECK THIS OUT!  garybeck   Oct-09-08 09:35 PM   #117 
  - K&R and how to support the Election Verification Polling  emlev   Oct-10-08 12:21 AM   #119 
  - The ACORN solution  jagerbb   Oct-10-08 11:02 AM   #123 
     - I'm thinking you are on the wrong board n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:31 PM   #124 
 

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