democraticinsurgent
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Sat Sep-20-08 04:45 PM
Response to Reply #9 |
| 10. oh, they will touch them again |
|
...i can guarantee you that. Edison Research aka Edison Mitosky is contracted again for national exit polling. I have worked for them in the past and will again on this election day, as a contract pollster.
They will be used. Question is, how?
Time will tell.
|
| -Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? |
garybeck |
Sep-19-08 11:33 PM |
#0 |
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The Reicht wing would slam them as biased and the MSM would help. |
yourout |
Sep-19-08 11:35 PM |
#1 |
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Neither the GOP or the GOP-controlled media have any room to talk. n/t |
ColbertWatcher |
Sep-19-08 11:39 PM |
#3 |
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slam as they want, if the UN and other international orgs endorse it, they'll look pretty foolish.nt |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 12:30 AM |
#4 |
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Why don't you ask the UN, Carter Center, et al if they recommend exit polls |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 02:01 AM |
#7 |
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The group who did them for decades was reliable and non partisan, give them real tools again |
Hestia |
Sep-19-08 11:38 PM |
#2 |
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is it possible someone is currently doing unbiased polling already, but we're |
diva77 |
Sep-20-08 01:52 AM |
#5 |
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I'm sure we'd know about it. n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 01:56 AM |
#6 |
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If we had our shit together, we wouldn't still be hanging hopes on exit polls. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:22 AM |
#8 |
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The media will not touch exit polls because they were fudged with during the 2004 |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 12:26 PM |
#9 |
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oh, they will touch them again |
democraticinsurgent |
Sep-20-08 04:45 PM |
#10 |
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During the 2006 election they just asked people where they stood on issues |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 06:49 PM |
#11 |
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sorry, this simply isn't true |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 06:55 PM |
#12 |
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Well they were not reporting said exit polls on the news. I haven't done |
applegrove |
Sep-20-08 07:11 PM |
#13 |
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sure, there is renewed caution in interpretation |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:11 PM |
#16 |
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they wouldn't even release the raw exit poll data |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 08:31 PM |
#17 |
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why? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:46 PM |
#19 |
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Who cares what he was going to do with the raw exit poll data? |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:01 PM |
#20 |
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did he try to impound the ballots? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 09:21 PM |
#21 |
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NVRI went to court for that. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:43 PM |
#23 |
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why should you care what he's going to do with it? |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 09:35 PM |
#22 |
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Again, I think it's his perogative (and a good idea) to try to grab up what he can. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 09:56 PM |
#24 |
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yeah, that too. my suggestion |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 10:02 PM |
#26 |
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I certainly realize you aren't recommending abandoning other reform efforts. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:17 PM |
#29 |
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'most in the ER community would be OK with ' |
garybeck |
Sep-20-08 10:50 PM |
#38 |
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Audits are tough to push. But NJ wound up with a risk-based audit. That's good news. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 09:14 AM |
#41 |
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but what? n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:13 PM |
#48 |
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Inefficient. n/t |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 05:11 PM |
#61 |
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less efficient than hand counting all the ballots? n/t |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 11:26 PM |
#74 |
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I'm saying inefficient because 10% is too much sometimes, and way to little at others. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 11:36 PM |
#76 |
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why I like Simon's method |
garybeck |
Sep-22-08 11:10 PM |
#98 |
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I forgot VT has a flat two percent audit. |
Wilms |
Sep-23-08 01:08 AM |
#101 |
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Actually we don't have a flat 2% audit |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:21 PM |
#104 |
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IGNORE - |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:24 PM |
#105 |
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ignore |
garybeck |
Sep-23-08 12:25 PM |
#106 |
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Not so inefficient except for not-so-close races but... |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 11:34 PM |
#75 |
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ethics |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:41 PM |
#44 |
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bullshit |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:12 PM |
#47 |
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go ahead and shoot the messenger |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:02 PM |
#53 |
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Data |
BeFree |
Sep-21-08 04:24 PM |
#58 |
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this is mostly unreadable |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 06:21 PM |
#62 |
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On the subj. of confidentiality... |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 10:57 PM |
#70 |
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sure, I'm happy to explain it again |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:28 AM |
#80 |
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Well, the problem is |
Febble |
Oct-10-08 03:58 AM |
#121 |
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I'm sorry |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 12:50 PM |
#108 |
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flame bait |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 03:24 PM |
#113 |
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Of course |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 07:37 PM |
#115 |
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Sigh |
Febble |
Oct-09-08 01:43 PM |
#109 |
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Says who? |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 02:29 PM |
#111 |
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And |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 02:33 PM |
#112 |
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huh? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 03:43 PM |
#114 |
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You don't need to look it up |
Febble |
Oct-10-08 03:54 AM |
#120 |
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Oh they could have been rigged if the GOP sent out a meme to the |
applegrove |
Sep-21-08 11:06 AM |
#42 |
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I agree completely. I think that's the scientific answer. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 07:35 PM |
#14 |
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malarkey |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-20-08 08:07 PM |
#15 |
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Malarkey? How can that be? Within the exit poll margin of error? |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 09:57 PM |
#25 |
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What, you don't think there can be a 20% MoE in one precinct? |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:27 PM |
#34 |
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Precint results from Duval county (spreadsheet). |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:50 PM |
#37 |
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Well, if you exit poll 165 voters, there's a margin of error of +/- 10% |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 10:37 PM |
#67 |
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How many of the respondents said they voted for two presidents? |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 10:46 PM |
#68 |
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My reasoning is that there are NOT enough voters polled in a precinct |
Bill Bored |
Sep-21-08 11:13 PM |
#72 |
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That's right. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 12:02 AM |
#78 |
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what's right?! |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 06:45 AM |
#82 |
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I think you are being intentionally obtuse. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 09:19 AM |
#84 |
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you think *I* am being intentionally obtuse? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 09:42 AM |
#86 |
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What is it you don't understand? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 05:42 PM |
#88 |
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"They did this because of the high overvote rate in heavily Gore precints." |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:58 PM |
#91 |
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Malarkey ring any bells. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:34 PM |
#92 |
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flame war is your best play? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 06:39 PM |
#93 |
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Flame war? What is wrong with you? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:55 PM |
#95 |
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I'm damn sick of your stonewalling |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 07:29 PM |
#96 |
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You keep accusing me of behavior that I haven't done. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 11:17 PM |
#99 |
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the thing you "haven't done" is to support your claims |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-23-08 05:00 AM |
#102 |
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Here's a simplified illustration of what happened in Duval County. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 12:41 AM |
#79 |
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the MoE within individual counties? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 08:01 AM |
#40 |
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Glad you cleared that up. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 11:08 AM |
#43 |
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it isn't a matter of "understanding" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:44 PM |
#45 |
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I didn't know any of what I claimed was in dispute. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 02:24 PM |
#51 |
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"where votes were missing in the returns" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:09 PM |
#56 |
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Yes, you do seem to be flummoxed. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 09:37 PM |
#65 |
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you say it's the point, but you aren't supporting it: |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:52 AM |
#81 |
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Yes, it was odd to me that the VNS guy was on live. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 09:13 AM |
#83 |
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is this intended as satire? |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 09:44 AM |
#87 |
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This is a very simplistic graph for you. |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 05:46 PM |
#89 |
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no, your claim was about EXIT POLLS |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 05:52 PM |
#90 |
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What is it exactly that you think I am claiming that is smoke? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 06:48 PM |
#94 |
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"OBVIOUSLY, the MOE was such that they made the call early for FL." |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-22-08 07:32 PM |
#97 |
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You think they blew the call? |
Usrename |
Sep-22-08 11:29 PM |
#100 |
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you are amazingly obtuse |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-23-08 05:21 AM |
#103 |
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"THEY BLEW THE CALL!!" |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 10:06 AM |
#107 |
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yeah, they blew the call |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-09-08 08:09 PM |
#116 |
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They called Florida correctly |
BeFree |
Oct-09-08 10:05 PM |
#118 |
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no, they should not have called Florida at all |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-10-08 05:03 AM |
#122 |
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"...isn't true at all"? Then help me here. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 08:32 PM |
#18 |
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Here ya go! |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:13 PM |
#27 |
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I spent three weeks in the third world and had some great meals served that way. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:19 PM |
#30 |
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You mean New York? nt |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:21 PM |
#32 |
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Well, NY too. But I was there much longer. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:29 PM |
#35 |
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I guess that's a fair question. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:17 PM |
#28 |
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Oh, and that's a fair comment. |
Wilms |
Sep-20-08 10:25 PM |
#33 |
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Full-nightmare mode, to be sure. |
Usrename |
Sep-20-08 10:41 PM |
#36 |
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I think that's close to what we have |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 12:48 PM |
#46 |
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Well then they weren't smart enough to widen the sample. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 04:56 PM |
#59 |
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"what we need is a secure voting system" |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 06:30 PM |
#63 |
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And, interestingly |
Febble |
Oct-09-08 01:49 PM |
#110 |
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MISSION ACCOMPLISHED! |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 10:48 PM |
#69 |
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I agree, Exit Polls should be required reading at the Academy! |
Bill Bored |
Sep-20-08 10:20 PM |
#31 |
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Because a close election will always be... |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 01:06 AM |
#39 |
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2004 wasn't close. that's the point. |
garybeck |
Sep-21-08 01:20 PM |
#49 |
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Uncle. |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 01:57 PM |
#50 |
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Neither was FL 2000. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 02:27 PM |
#52 |
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Imho, both FL/2000 & OH/2004 were within ... |
yowzayowzayowza |
Sep-21-08 03:06 PM |
#54 |
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I don't even know what that means. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 09:45 PM |
#66 |
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it was close on both |
OnTheOtherHand |
Sep-21-08 03:11 PM |
#57 |
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Suggested plan B if the independent exit polling organization doesn't happen |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 03:07 PM |
#55 |
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and that will... |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 04:57 PM |
#60 |
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I would think it would shine a brighter light on polls that are |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 08:25 PM |
#64 |
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I think the rationale for exit polls is a little different. |
Usrename |
Sep-21-08 11:04 PM |
#71 |
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This you may enjoy. |
Wilms |
Sep-21-08 11:18 PM |
#73 |
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thanks, Wilms! hmmm..maybe we have our new "it-girl" pollster |
diva77 |
Sep-21-08 11:51 PM |
#77 |
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Aaak! |
Wilms |
Sep-22-08 09:30 AM |
#85 |
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FOLKS, THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING! CHECK THIS OUT! |
garybeck |
Oct-09-08 09:35 PM |
#117 |
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K&R and how to support the Election Verification Polling |
emlev |
Oct-10-08 12:21 AM |
#119 |
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The ACORN solution |
jagerbb |
Oct-10-08 11:02 AM |
#123 |
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I'm thinking you are on the wrong board n/t |
OnTheOtherHand |
Oct-10-08 12:31 PM |
#124 |
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