You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login

Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
garybeck Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Sep-19-08 11:33 PM
Original message
Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization?
Advertisements [?]
Exit polling is one of the last protections we have. Exit polling has been used in countries throughout the world to indicate fraud.

the exit poll system in the united states is run by the media and is untrustworthy. we already know that they fudge the exit poll numbers as the evening goes by and you can only get the raw unfudged exit poll numbers if you are very diligent (thank you Jonathan Simon).

So why don't we put some resources together and organize an independent exit polling organization? Maybe the media will ignore it at first, but I'm sure it could get endorsement from many organizations like Common Cause and others, and eventually it could be recognized internationally. Then they would have to take notice.

The organization could set as a goal to take a larger sample than what the networks do, and therefore have a lower margin of error.

In 2004, I believe the sample size was about 13,000 people.

It seems to me, if we put our heads together, get a little funding, get some expert statisticians involved, we could figure out a way to ask 13,000 people who they voted for on their way out of the polls. Maybe not in time for this election but definitely for the next.

Just a thought on a late friday night.
Refresh | +7 Recommendations Printer Friendly | Permalink | Reply | Top
  -Why don't we just get our shit together and start an independent national exit polling organization? garybeck  Sep-19-08 11:33 PM   #0 
  - The Reicht wing would slam them as biased and the MSM would help.  yourout   Sep-19-08 11:35 PM   #1 
  - Neither the GOP or the GOP-controlled media have any room to talk. n/t  ColbertWatcher   Sep-19-08 11:39 PM   #3 
  - slam as they want, if the UN and other international orgs endorse it, they'll look pretty foolish.nt  garybeck   Sep-20-08 12:30 AM   #4 
     - Why don't you ask the UN, Carter Center, et al if they recommend exit polls  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 02:01 AM   #7 
  - The group who did them for decades was reliable and non partisan, give them real tools again  Hestia   Sep-19-08 11:38 PM   #2 
  - is it possible someone is currently doing unbiased polling already, but we're  diva77   Sep-20-08 01:52 AM   #5 
  - I'm sure we'd know about it. n/t  garybeck   Sep-20-08 01:56 AM   #6 
  - If we had our shit together, we wouldn't still be hanging hopes on exit polls. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:22 AM   #8 
  - The media will not touch exit polls because they were fudged with during the 2004  applegrove   Sep-20-08 12:26 PM   #9 
  - oh, they will touch them again  democraticinsurgent   Sep-20-08 04:45 PM   #10 
     - During the 2006 election they just asked people where they stood on issues  applegrove   Sep-20-08 06:49 PM   #11 
        - sorry, this simply isn't true  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 06:55 PM   #12 
           - Well they were not reporting said exit polls on the news. I haven't done  applegrove   Sep-20-08 07:11 PM   #13 
              - sure, there is renewed caution in interpretation  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:11 PM   #16 
                 - they wouldn't even release the raw exit poll data  garybeck   Sep-20-08 08:31 PM   #17 
                 - why?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:46 PM   #19 
                    - Who cares what he was going to do with the raw exit poll data?  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:01 PM   #20 
                    - did he try to impound the ballots?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 09:21 PM   #21 
                       - NVRI went to court for that. n/t  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:43 PM   #23 
                    - why should you care what he's going to do with it?  garybeck   Sep-20-08 09:35 PM   #22 
                       - Again, I think it's his perogative (and a good idea) to try to grab up what he can.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 09:56 PM   #24 
                       - yeah, that too. my suggestion  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:02 PM   #26 
                          - I certainly realize you aren't recommending abandoning other reform efforts.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #29 
                             - 'most in the ER community would be OK with '  garybeck   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #38 
                                - Audits are tough to push. But NJ wound up with a risk-based audit. That's good news.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 09:14 AM   #41 
                                   - but what? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:13 PM   #48 
                                      - Inefficient. n/t  Wilms   Sep-21-08 05:11 PM   #61 
                                         - less efficient than hand counting all the ballots? n/t  garybeck   Sep-21-08 11:26 PM   #74 
                                         - I'm saying inefficient because 10% is too much sometimes, and way to little at others.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:36 PM   #76 
                                            - why I like Simon's method  garybeck   Sep-22-08 11:10 PM   #98 
                                            - I forgot VT has a flat two percent audit.  Wilms   Sep-23-08 01:08 AM   #101 
                                            - Actually we don't have a flat 2% audit  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:21 PM   #104 
                                            - IGNORE -  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:24 PM   #105 
                                            - ignore  garybeck   Sep-23-08 12:25 PM   #106 
                                         - Not so inefficient except for not-so-close races but...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:34 PM   #75 
                       - ethics  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:41 PM   #44 
                       - bullshit  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:12 PM   #47 
                          - go ahead and shoot the messenger  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:02 PM   #53 
                             - Data  BeFree   Sep-21-08 04:24 PM   #58 
                                - this is mostly unreadable  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:21 PM   #62 
                                   - On the subj. of confidentiality...  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:57 PM   #70 
                                   - sure, I'm happy to explain it again  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:28 AM   #80 
                                   - Well, the problem is  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:58 AM   #121 
                                   - I'm sorry  BeFree   Oct-09-08 12:50 PM   #108 
                                      - flame bait  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:24 PM   #113 
                                         - Of course  BeFree   Oct-09-08 07:37 PM   #115 
                       - Sigh  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:43 PM   #109 
                          - Says who?  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:29 PM   #111 
                             - And  BeFree   Oct-09-08 02:33 PM   #112 
                             - huh?  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 03:43 PM   #114 
                             - You don't need to look it up  Febble   Oct-10-08 03:54 AM   #120 
                 - Oh they could have been rigged if the GOP sent out a meme to the  applegrove   Sep-21-08 11:06 AM   #42 
  - I agree completely. I think that's the scientific answer.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 07:35 PM   #14 
  - malarkey  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-20-08 08:07 PM   #15 
  - Malarkey? How can that be? Within the exit poll margin of error?  Usrename   Sep-20-08 09:57 PM   #25 
     - What, you don't think there can be a 20% MoE in one precinct?  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:27 PM   #34 
     - Precint results from Duval county (spreadsheet).  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:50 PM   #37 
        - Well, if you exit poll 165 voters, there's a margin of error of +/- 10%  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 10:37 PM   #67 
           - How many of the respondents said they voted for two presidents?  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:46 PM   #68 
              - My reasoning is that there are NOT enough voters polled in a precinct  Bill Bored   Sep-21-08 11:13 PM   #72 
                 - That's right.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:02 AM   #78 
                 - what's right?!  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:45 AM   #82 
                    - I think you are being intentionally obtuse.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:19 AM   #84 
                       - you think *I* am being intentionally obtuse?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:42 AM   #86 
                          - What is it you don't understand?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:42 PM   #88 
                             - "They did this because of the high overvote rate in heavily Gore precints."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:58 PM   #91 
                                - Malarkey ring any bells.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:34 PM   #92 
                                   - flame war is your best play?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 06:39 PM   #93 
                                      - Flame war? What is wrong with you?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:55 PM   #95 
                                         - I'm damn sick of your stonewalling  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:29 PM   #96 
                                            - You keep accusing me of behavior that I haven't done.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:17 PM   #99 
                                            - the thing you "haven't done" is to support your claims  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:00 AM   #102 
                 - Here's a simplified illustration of what happened in Duval County.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 12:41 AM   #79 
     - the MoE within individual counties?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 08:01 AM   #40 
        - Glad you cleared that up.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:08 AM   #43 
           - it isn't a matter of "understanding"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:44 PM   #45 
              - I didn't know any of what I claimed was in dispute.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:24 PM   #51 
                 - "where votes were missing in the returns"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:09 PM   #56 
                    - Yes, you do seem to be flummoxed.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:37 PM   #65 
                       - you say it's the point, but you aren't supporting it:  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 AM   #81 
                          - Yes, it was odd to me that the VNS guy was on live.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 09:13 AM   #83 
                             - is this intended as satire?  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 09:44 AM   #87 
                                - This is a very simplistic graph for you.  Usrename   Sep-22-08 05:46 PM   #89 
                                   - no, your claim was about EXIT POLLS  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 05:52 PM   #90 
                                      - What is it exactly that you think I am claiming that is smoke?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 06:48 PM   #94 
                                         - "OBVIOUSLY, the MOE was such that they made the call early for FL."  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-22-08 07:32 PM   #97 
                                            - You think they blew the call?  Usrename   Sep-22-08 11:29 PM   #100 
                                               - you are amazingly obtuse  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-23-08 05:21 AM   #103 
                                                  - "THEY BLEW THE CALL!!"  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:06 AM   #107 
                                                  - yeah, they blew the call  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-09-08 08:09 PM   #116 
                                                  - They called Florida correctly  BeFree   Oct-09-08 10:05 PM   #118 
                                                  - no, they should not have called Florida at all  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 05:03 AM   #122 
  - "...isn't true at all"? Then help me here.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 08:32 PM   #18 
  - Here ya go!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:13 PM   #27 
  - I spent three weeks in the third world and had some great meals served that way.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:19 PM   #30 
     - You mean New York? nt  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:21 PM   #32 
        - Well, NY too. But I was there much longer.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:29 PM   #35 
  - I guess that's a fair question.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:17 PM   #28 
     - Oh, and that's a fair comment.  Wilms   Sep-20-08 10:25 PM   #33 
        - Full-nightmare mode, to be sure.  Usrename   Sep-20-08 10:41 PM   #36 
        - I think that's close to what we have  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 12:48 PM   #46 
           - Well then they weren't smart enough to widen the sample.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:56 PM   #59 
              - "what we need is a secure voting system"  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 06:30 PM   #63 
              - And, interestingly  Febble   Oct-09-08 01:49 PM   #110 
              - MISSION ACCOMPLISHED!  Usrename   Sep-21-08 10:48 PM   #69 
  - I agree, Exit Polls should be required reading at the Academy!  Bill Bored   Sep-20-08 10:20 PM   #31 
  - Because a close election will always be...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:06 AM   #39 
  - 2004 wasn't close. that's the point.  garybeck   Sep-21-08 01:20 PM   #49 
     - Uncle.  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 01:57 PM   #50 
     - Neither was FL 2000.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 02:27 PM   #52 
        - Imho, both FL/2000 & OH/2004 were within ...  yowzayowzayowza   Sep-21-08 03:06 PM   #54 
           - I don't even know what that means.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 09:45 PM   #66 
     - it was close on both  OnTheOtherHand   Sep-21-08 03:11 PM   #57 
  - Suggested plan B if the independent exit polling organization doesn't happen  diva77   Sep-21-08 03:07 PM   #55 
  - and that will...  Wilms   Sep-21-08 04:57 PM   #60 
     - I would think it would shine a brighter light on polls that are  diva77   Sep-21-08 08:25 PM   #64 
        - I think the rationale for exit polls is a little different.  Usrename   Sep-21-08 11:04 PM   #71 
        - This you may enjoy.  Wilms   Sep-21-08 11:18 PM   #73 
           - thanks, Wilms! hmmm..maybe we have our new "it-girl" pollster  diva77   Sep-21-08 11:51 PM   #77 
              - Aaak!  Wilms   Sep-22-08 09:30 AM   #85 
  - FOLKS, THIS IS ALREADY HAPPENING! CHECK THIS OUT!  garybeck   Oct-09-08 09:35 PM   #117 
  - K&R and how to support the Election Verification Polling  emlev   Oct-10-08 12:21 AM   #119 
  - The ACORN solution  jagerbb   Oct-10-08 11:02 AM   #123 
     - I'm thinking you are on the wrong board n/t  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-10-08 12:31 PM   #124 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators

Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC