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Reply #14: I'm glad you were there [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Sep-20-08 06:28 PM
Response to Reply #13
14. I'm glad you were there
I got to read the transcript (I assume it was the same one). Some of the content was kind of scary. Anyway--

Different pollsters use different methods to decide who is a likely voter. In general they don't automatically exclude newly registered voters -- except for those who actually use registration lists to draw their samples! (That is unusual.) My impression is that most pollsters try to let the expected turnout for new registrants to emerge from their model (for instance, how interested people are in the campaign), rather than guess at the percentage.

Bottom line: the polls at least have a shot at fairly representing the newly registered voters, but I'm sure that some do a better job than others. And, yes, the shift to cell phones must make it even harder (unless it's easier to reach cell phones than dorm room landlines).
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