Reply #4: some guesswork, but MO has around 5500 precincts

[OnTheOtherHand]

so a 5% sample is around 275. That has about a 99% chance of detecting a magnitude of error that occurs in up to 90 of the precincts. How much difference could 90 precincts out of 5500 make in the outcome? Conceivably a few points' worth -- it depends on assumptions about how much error can be packed in each precinct.

If MO law and/or these new provisions have some way of auditing precincts with anomalous results, that would help a lot.

By the way, 99% is really high. If there were large miscounts in 40 precincts, a simple random sample of this size would still have about 7 chances in 8 of including at least one of them.