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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Aug-14-08 05:32 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. great question
I drafted a very long reaction to the book, but I don't know when I will find time to render it readable (the book is very complicated, so the draft turned out the same way).

I really admire Phillips' work ethic, and it's very likely that he looked at more evidence than anyone else. His central arguments -- with respect to estimating vote miscount -- aren't very solid. My DKos diary here talks at some length about the "Connally anomaly" issue. Basically, I and the quants I know don't think there is a Connally anomaly. That's huge because it accounts for more than half of his vote-change estimate.

Somewhat similarly, Phillips relies heavily on disbelief that many people might have voted for Bush and against Issue One, but other evidence (including his own evidence from Harrison County) shows that it happened. Not only does this undermine Phillips' credibility, but it makes the book very hard to read.

Some of the details are sketchy, too. For instance, at one point he asserts that two signatures on different absentee ballots match, but they really don't -- the letters are differently formed. Or, he takes an election official's asinine comment that "all of the Delaware shop owners are gay" and treats it so seriously that he makes it one subject of a public records request. Or, more consequentially, he has some weird turnout figure for Cleveland. Of course it stands to reason that in a 400-page book, some of the details will be sketchy.

I think his discussion of miscounted ballots in Cuyahoga County is pretty solid, although L Coyote might well disagree, and he's at least in the ballpark with respect to machine distribution in Franklin County.

Phillips finds lots of mismatches between pollbook counts and ballot counts; he interprets these as evidence of fraud, but it is hard to tell what they are. (Republicans cite similar results as evidence that Kerry stole Wisconsin -- which is possible, for all I know, but I don't find either one very convincing.) If the mismatches coincided with other anomalies, that would be noteworthy, but it isn't obvious to me that they do so coincide. Similarly, he finds some suspicious runs in precincts that weren't even recounted, but the results aren't obviously anomalous, so it's hard to know what to conclude. It's definitely a bad situation when the counts don't match.

I wish that Phillips had collaborated with someone else with a more skeptical bent, to winnow some of the less convincing stuff and help him figure out how to sharpen his arguments.
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  -RICHARD HAYES PHILLIPS! His fraudometer has been working OVERTIME!!! PLEASE K & R! Bill Bored  Jul-27-08 08:16 PM   #0 
  - actually, he's wrong about the exit polls  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-27-08 08:56 PM   #1 
  - Couldn't care less about the exit polls, but I'm glad you're on top of it.  Bill Bored   Jul-27-08 11:04 PM   #4 
  - New York has the greatest exit poll difference of all 50 states, per one study.  L. Coyote   Jul-28-08 08:25 AM   #7 
  - depending on the metric, sure  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-28-08 03:25 PM   #11 
  - NY's precincts are relatively small. Could this be why the WPE is higher?  Bill Bored   Jul-28-08 04:33 PM   #14 
  - can't really explain it  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-28-08 05:45 PM   #15 
     - How much different was the certified result than the election-night result?  Bill Bored   Jul-28-08 11:07 PM   #17 
        - ?  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-29-08 06:15 AM   #18 
           - Yes. Absentees, recanvass, etc?  Bill Bored   Aug-02-08 04:25 PM   #23 
              - exit poll true believers tend to do what they want...  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-02-08 05:37 PM   #25 
  - Raw exit poll - actual vote % disparity was highest in NY.  L. Coyote   Jul-28-08 10:49 PM   #16 
     - not really "raw" exit poll  OnTheOtherHand   Jul-29-08 06:24 AM   #19 
        - The Freeman data is the "unadjusted" exit poll data  L. Coyote   Jul-29-08 09:03 AM   #20 
        - California? Don't they have a 1% statewide audit?  Bill Bored   Aug-02-08 04:21 PM   #22 
           - yeah, the CA exit poll was comparatively tiny  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-02-08 05:26 PM   #24 
              - OTOH, I am curious. What do you think of the Ohio data and  truckin   Aug-14-08 01:22 PM   #26 
                 - great question  OnTheOtherHand   Aug-14-08 05:32 PM   #27 
                 - Very little research has been accomplished in Ohio  L. Coyote   Aug-14-08 07:24 PM   #28 
                    - Hope you know that the SoS's website has full precinct data for the whole state in Excel (2004). nt  Bill Bored   Aug-15-08 02:12 PM   #29 
  - And we're PROUD OF IT! It proves that Exit Polls are a waste of time. Keep the levers! nt  Bill Bored   Jul-28-08 03:32 PM   #12 
  - Votescam may have caused some confusion because the  truckin   Jul-28-08 08:34 AM   #9 
  - The Lesson: Republics Will Say Anything to Justify Election Fraud.  DCKit   Jul-27-08 09:41 PM   #2 
  - greatest n/t  btmlndfrmr   Jul-27-08 09:53 PM   #3 
  - kick  samsingh   Jul-28-08 01:19 AM   #5 
  - Here is a link to events that Mr. Phillips has planned.  truckin   Jul-28-08 08:22 AM   #6 
  - "activists... should just shut up..." is always bad advice!  L. Coyote   Jul-28-08 08:31 AM   #8 
  - Except that ain't what he said.  Wilms   Jul-28-08 08:48 AM   #10 
     - Shutting up is hard to do, but none of them can explain how levers cause exit poll discrepancies. nt  Bill Bored   Jul-28-08 04:30 PM   #13 
        - Hayes is right.  Wilms   Aug-01-08 10:17 AM   #21 
  - .  Bill Bored   Sep-05-09 10:47 PM   #30 
  - No, the NY Best GEO exit poll had Kerry winning by 31%: 65-34%  WillE   Sep-05-09 11:08 PM   #31 

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