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Reply #27: TIA is in an impossible position [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. TIA is in an impossible position
He appears to be committed to the view that the exit polls were accurate. The exit poll result in New York (Kerry +31.3) is far-fetched given pre-election polls, but TIA has to argue that it is plausible -- that Kerry outperformed pre-election polls by double-digits, and then the forces of Bushness stole back double-digits' worth of votes on the lever machines. This makes very little sense.

We could cut him some slack on New York (hey, there's always margin of error), but then he has basically the same problem in other states. Take PA, MN, and NH. In all of these, pre-election polls show Kerry with small leads, the exit polls give Kerry double-digit leads, and the official returns give Kerry narrow winning margins close to the pre-election poll results. So, there's the parsimonious inference that the exit polls were wrong, or there's the TIA inference that Kerry outperformed the pre-election polls by double digits and then the Bushites stole back those votes. It's like Ptolemy trying to salvage a geocentric model by inventing epicycles.
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  -To Believe that Bush Won in 2004, You Must Also Believe that-- Mar 2 2008 Update w more info tiptoe  Apr-23-08 05:18 PM   #0 
  - And exactly what have our "leaders", including Clinton and Obama,  Benhurst   Apr-23-08 05:42 PM   #1 
  - Here's what GOP election fraud beneficiaries do to sabotage Elec Reform by Dem Rush Holt of NJ:  tiptoe   Apr-25-08 06:33 PM   #8 
  - at first glance  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-23-08 06:04 PM   #2 
  - But  BeFree   Apr-28-08 04:01 PM   #19 
  - Great minds!  helderheid   Apr-23-08 06:07 PM   #3 
  - A lot of this is B.S.  Zynx   Apr-23-08 06:20 PM   #4 
  - "BS" is pollsters ALWAYS matching their Final Exit Polls to a Recorded Vote Count="100% Accuracy!!"  tiptoe   Apr-23-08 08:18 PM   #5 
  - you're being silly  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-23-08 08:32 PM   #7 
     - Of course the clients noticed  BeFree   Apr-28-08 04:06 PM   #20 
  - yeah, pretty much  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-23-08 08:26 PM   #6 
  - We can't prove it and You can't prove it, Pretty sad  kster   Apr-26-08 04:43 AM   #9 
     - well, I agree that it's pretty sad  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-26-08 05:55 AM   #10 
        - You are?  BeFree   Apr-26-08 04:21 PM   #11 
           - you think "starting threads" = "working"?  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-26-08 04:50 PM   #12 
              - What work have you done?  Bonn1997   Apr-27-08 08:17 AM   #14 
                 - I have worked on two fronts  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-27-08 09:08 AM   #15 
                    - So  BeFree   Apr-28-08 03:36 PM   #16 
                       - what is "really safe machine counting"?  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-28-08 03:47 PM   #17 
                          - Disrupt and hijack  BeFree   Apr-28-08 03:59 PM   #18 
                             - were you going to respond to substance, or not?  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-28-08 04:41 PM   #21 
                                - Respond?  BeFree   Apr-30-08 01:48 PM   #22 
                                   - refer to post #17  OnTheOtherHand   Apr-30-08 02:19 PM   #23 
                                      - Bring it on.  BeFree   Apr-30-08 02:23 PM   #24 
  - If the voting machines played a significant role, and they did,  Stevepol   Apr-27-08 04:55 AM   #13 
  - TruthIsAll is to be commended, awarded saint hood etc for his list  truedelphi   Sep-13-08 04:17 PM   #25 
  - Mixing points  thesquanderer   Oct-16-08 11:10 AM   #26 
  - TIA is in an impossible position  OnTheOtherHand   Oct-16-08 12:17 PM   #27 
  - There was reason to believe in the Kerry camp that he was our next president.  wisteria   Jun-11-09 08:37 PM   #28 

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