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Reply #27: TIA is in an impossible position [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-16-08 12:17 PM
Response to Reply #26
27. TIA is in an impossible position
He appears to be committed to the view that the exit polls were accurate. The exit poll result in New York (Kerry +31.3) is far-fetched given pre-election polls, but TIA has to argue that it is plausible -- that Kerry outperformed pre-election polls by double-digits, and then the forces of Bushness stole back double-digits' worth of votes on the lever machines. This makes very little sense.

We could cut him some slack on New York (hey, there's always margin of error), but then he has basically the same problem in other states. Take PA, MN, and NH. In all of these, pre-election polls show Kerry with small leads, the exit polls give Kerry double-digit leads, and the official returns give Kerry narrow winning margins close to the pre-election poll results. So, there's the parsimonious inference that the exit polls were wrong, or there's the TIA inference that Kerry outperformed the pre-election polls by double digits and then the Bushites stole back those votes. It's like Ptolemy trying to salvage a geocentric model by inventing epicycles.
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