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Reply #6: yeah, pretty much [View All]

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OnTheOtherHand Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. yeah, pretty much
A few quibbles about what you wrote. First of all, this mostly isn't about "early exit poll methodology." What most people mean by "early exit polls" (I don't know what you meant) is the results that used to leak out during the day based on partial interview data, which certainly can be off the wall. But the complete interview data can still be off the wall, so it's potentially confusing to focus on "early." As for "methodology," we know how to do exit polls badly -- and asking so many questions, frankly, is not ideal -- but no method can ensure that supporters of the various candidates will be equally willing to fill out the surveys.

Second, "voter fraud" is generally construed to mean "when voters vote illegally." I think you mean "election fraud." Yes, given the actual results, it would have required a fairly wide conspiracy, although in some states one well-placed hacker could have wrought considerable havoc. (The exit polls actually don't support this, in general, although they certainly can't in all cases rule it out.)

I agree that Bush's rural vote didn't decline; I think that's an artifact of an inconsequential weighting error.
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