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Reply #4: A lot of this is B.S. [View All]

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Zynx Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 06:20 PM
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4. A lot of this is B.S.
First, the exit poll issue is addressed here: http://www.thedemocraticstrategist.org/donkeyrising/200... and I also saw a Charlie Cook interview where he said that early exit polls are garbage and have never been taken seriously. They are always adjusted.

Pre-election polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html
They came damn close to reflecting what we saw. In Ohio, pre-election polls showed an average 2.1% Bush lead. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.htm...

The incumbent rule is generally true, but not always. Reagan didn't underperform in 1984 and Ford performed right in line with his polling. Same goes for Nixon in 1972.

A statistical point, confidence intervals, such as the 95% confidence interval, only apply if methodology was correct and if samples are truly random and representative. Ruy Teixeira and others have said early exit poll methodology is almost never correct.

Also, the trend was virtually nationwide in shifts from 2000 to 2004 in the bulk of counties and states toward Bush, reflecting the national vote. This map: Blue is a shift to Bush, red to Kerry. They inverted the colors. There are a small handful of states and counties where Kerry gained versus Gore. If voter fraud existed, it was the largest conspiracy in history involving elections officials all over the country and secretaries of state who were often Democrats.

There's very little mystery to this if you don't buy into total B.S. In most urban areas Kerry gained over Gore with two notable exceptions and those were New York and L.A. In Chicago, Philly, DC, Detroit, St. Louis, Milwaukee, Minneapolis, San Francisco, and so on in raw vote totals Kerry did better than Gore. Kerry slipped considerably in rural areas and also in the suburbs which really make me question these exit polls that show Bush's rural vote declining. I very little evidence of that.
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