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To Believe that Bush Won in 2004, You Must Also Believe that…-- Mar 2 2008 Update w more info [View All]

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-23-08 05:18 PM
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To Believe that Bush Won in 2004, You Must Also Believe that…-- Mar 2 2008 Update w more info
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Edited on Wed Apr-23-08 05:41 PM by tiptoe
To believe that Bush won in 2004 you must also believe that…

Updated March 2, 2008 by TruthIsAll    http://www.geocities.com/electionmodel/ToBelieveBushWon...

  1. The media exhaustively analyzed state and national pre-election /exit poll data and the documented evidence of vote suppression and miscounts. But raw exit poll precinct data has never been made public.

  2. There are many explanations as to why the exit polls were wrong: Kerry voters were more approachable than Bush voters to be interviewed; interviewers sought out Kerry voters; returning Gore voters claimed to have voted for Bush in 2000 because they wanted to be associated with the “winner”; exit polls are not random samples; U.S. exit polls are not designed to monitor election fraud; early exit polling overstated the Kerry vote (women voted early); Republicans voted late; Gore voters defected to Bush at twice the rate that Bush voters defected to Kerry, etc. But none of these “explanations” are supported by the evidence. In fact, they have all been refuted.

  3. The votes were fairly counted. But 2004 U.S. Census data indicates that 125.7 million votes were cast as opposed to the 122.3m recorded. And investigative reporter Greg Palast presented government data which documented 3 million uncounted votes.

  4. Democrats failed to attract first-time voters. But according to the National Exit Poll, since 1992 the Democrats have won first-time voters by a 14% average margin. Ruy Teixeira wrote about it in The Emerging Democratic Majority.

  5. Bush’s 48% Election Day approval rating (Image) was not a major factor. But since 1976 all presidential incumbents with less than 50% approval lost re-election (Ford, Carter, Bush I) while those above 50% won (Eisenhower, Johnson, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton). And there was a near-perfect 0.87 correlation (Image) between Bush’s monthly approval rating and the average national poll. The correlation was confirmed when Kerry won the 12:22am National Exit Poll by 51-48%. According to Frank Newport, Editor in Chief of the Gallup Poll, “The president's job approval rating is an important indicator of re-election probabilities. But like so much else in this election, this measure isn't giving us a great deal of direction right now. Bush's job approval has slipped to 48% among national adults and is thus below the symbolically important 50% point. If we take that 50% line seriously, then Bush is in a less-than-auspicious position. No president since Harry Truman has won re-election with a job approval rating below 50%”.

  6. Bush gained 9% over his 2000 vote in heavily Democratic urban locations and lost 3% in highly Republican small towns and rural areas.
    But that is an Urban Legend.


  7. There is no evidence that the vote count was corrupted. So how did Bush win 51.5% of the first 115.8m recorded votes while Kerry won 54.6% of the final 5.3m, a 500,000 vote decline in the Bush “mandate”.

  8. Final pre-election polls did not match the exit polls. But after undecided voters were allocated, pre-election state (Kerry 47.9-Bush 46.9%) and national (Kerry 47.2-Bush 46.9%) polls closely matched the national (50.8-48.2%) and state (51.8-47.2%) exit polls. The final Zogby battleground state polls (Image) showed Kerry leading in 9 critical states.

  9. Bogus assumptions were used in the pre-election Election Model simulation model which forecast that Kerry would win 320-337 electoral votes (Image). But the only input assumption was that Kerry would capture at least 60% of the undecided vote. The Election Model popular and electoral vote projections were confirmed by state and national exit poll analysis in the Interactive Election Simulation Model (Image).

  10. There is no evidence that undecided voters break for the challenger. Historical evidence indicates that undecided voters break for the challenger over 80% of the time - especially when the incumbent is unpopular - and Bush had a 48.5% average approval rating. World-class pollsters Harris and Zogby reported their late polling indicated Kerry would win 60-80% of the undecided vote. According to the Gallup poll: “In the final USA TODAY/CNN/GALLUP poll, President Bush held a 49-47 edge over Sen. John Kerry when the undecided voters were not allocated to a particular candidate. When Gallup, using a statistical model that assumes that 9 of 10 of those voters would support Kerry, allocated the voters, the poll ended as a dead heat with each candidate garnering 49%. The Gallup allocation formula is based on analyses of previous presidential races involving an incumbent”.

  11. Bush was leading in the final pre-election polls. Not so. Kerry led Bush by less than 1% in the state-weighted average vote and held a 3% lead after allocation of undecided voters. Kerry and Bush were tied at 47% based on the final national 18-poll average.

  12. Non-response bias in the exit polls (Image) was the reason why 43 states red-shifted to Bush. But 3 million votes (mostly from heavily Democratic minority districts) were never counted - and Kerry won 70-75%. Response rates were lowest in Kerry urban strongholds.

  13. It was just a coincidence that Oregon was the only battleground state which shifted to Kerry. But Oregon is also the only state which votes exclusively by paper mail ballots, and the shift was a fraction of one percent. Any discrepancy would be minimal and favor either Bush or Kerry.

  14. There is nothing suspicious in the fact that six of the eight states which deviated to Kerry from the exit polls were strong Bush states. But the exit poll discrepancies were all within the margin of error.

  15. Final exit polls are always matched to the recorded vote. But this assumes a fraud-free election and no uncounted votes. And since 2000, elections have been anything but fraud-free. Therefore, the final exit polls (state and national) cannot be correct.

  16. There are reasonable explanations why Kerry led the National Exit Poll by 51-48% at 4pm (8349 respondents), 7:30pm (11027) and 12:22am (13047) and Bush won the 2pm Final NEP (13660) by 51-48%. But why do they defy the Law of Large Numbers and the Central Limit Theorem?

  17. The margins of error used to calculate probabilities (Image) of exit poll discrepancies were too low. But even assuming a 60% “cluster effect”, the probabilities were near zero. Assuming a zero cluster effect, WPE-adjusted state exit poll discrepancies (Image) exceeded the MoE in 29 states for Bush and just one for Kerry. Assuming a 30% cluster, the margin of error in was exceeded in 24 states for Bush. Composite (12:22am) exit poll discrepancies exceeded the margin of error in 16 states for Bush; none for Kerry.

  18. There is nothing suspicious about the fact that all 21 Eastern Time Zone states red-shifted from the exit poll in favor of Bush. But 14 deviated beyond the margin of error with virtually ZERO probability.

  19. Exit polls are not true random samples. But Edison-Mitofsky state in the NEP Methods Statement that respondents were randomly-selected and the overall margin of error was 1%.

  20. Bush voters were reluctant to respond to exit pollsters. But this was contradicted by the Final Exit Poll, which stated that Bush 2000 voters comprised 43% of the respondents, as compared to 37% for Gore voters. It was also contradicted by a linear regression (Image) analysis: non-response rates increased going from the strongest Bush states to the strongest Kerry states which suggests that non-responders were Kerry voters.

  21. The Final Exit Poll was correct in matching to the Bush 51-48% win. But the 43/37 weights indicate that either Bush voters were over-polled or the Final was rigged — a classic Hobson Choice. In any case, the rBr hypothesis was debunked.

  22. False recall (of Gore voters) is a valid explanation for the Final NEP “Voted in 2000” weights. But Bush 2000 voters could not have comprised 43% (52.6m) of the 122.3m votes recorded in 2004; Bush only had 50.5m votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m Bush 2000 voters died prior to the 2004 election and at least 2m did not vote, so 46m was the maximum Bush 2000 voter turnout in 2004 (a 37.6% weighting). The “Voted in 2000” question was asked of 3200 of the total 13047 respondents. How come the majority of the 10,000 respondents( who were not asked how they voted in 2000) claimed to have voted for Kerry? Why would they lie?

  23. Although the Final NEP Bush/Gore weightings were impossible, the DU Game thread showed that Bush could have achieved his vote assuming feasible weights. But to compensate for the feasible weights, Bush vote shares had to be inflated to implausible levels to match the recorded vote.

  24. This is how Bush won by 3 million votes: 14.6% of Gore voters defected to Bush in 2004; only 7.2% of Bush voters defected to Kerry; Kerry won just 52.9% of new voters. But according to the NEP, Kerry captured 10% of Bush 2000 voters while Bush won just 8% of Gore voters; Kerry won 57% of new voters and 71% of Nader voters.

  25. False recall is a valid argument to explain the Final NEP 43/37 weights. But false recall is not a factor in pre-election polls. And the pre-election polls (after undecided voters were allocated) matched the exit polls.

  26. An NES study suggests that a significant percentage of Gore voters told exit pollsters they voted for Bush in 2000. But only 3200 of 13047 NEP respondents were asked how they voted in 2000. Kerry won the other 10,000 by 51-48%.

  27. Returning Gore voters misrepresented their 2000 vote because they wanted to be associated with the winner — Bush. But Bush had 48% approval on Election Day. The majority of new voters were Democrats and Independents; they gave Bush a 25-30% approval (Image) rating. And Gore was the official “winner” in 2000 - by 540,000 votes.

  28. Bush found 12 million new voters in 2004. But simple arithmetic shows he needed more than 16 million. Bush had 50.5m recorded votes in 2000. Approximately 2.5m died (assuming 1.2% annual voter mortality) and 2.4m did not vote in 2004 (assuming 95% turnout). Therefore, approximately 45.6m Bush 2000 voters turned out to vote. Bush needed over 16 of 25m new voters (64%) to go from 45.6m to 62m. But according to the 12:22am National Exit Poll, he won 41% — a 23% difference.

  29. Bush won by 3 million votes. But how could that be? According to the NEP, Kerry won 57% of new voters (first-timers by 55-43% and other new voters by 61-37%); he won returning Nader voters by 70-20%. Kerry won 10% of Bush voters while just 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush.

  30. The sensitivity analysis (Image) which showed that Kerry won all plausible scenarios is overkill and does not prove anything. But given the adjusted 12:22am Composite vote shares and assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout, Kerry needed just 73% turnout of Gore voters to tie Bush. Gore voter turnout had to be 64% in order for Bush to match his recorded vote margin. Using pristine, non-adjusted exit poll shares, required Gore voter turnout was even lower than above.

  31. Bush’s share of females increased by 4.2%. But how did his share of the male vote decline by 0.2%? Females voted 54-45% for Kerry; Blacks voted over 90% for him; he won Independents by 52-44%.

  32. Bush won Ohio. But there is plenty of documented evidence of uncounted and switched votes, besides massive voter disenfranchisement. Two election workers were convicted of rigging the recount. Fifty-six of 88 county voting records were destroyed. The final Zogby poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry led the pristine Ohio exit poll by 54.1-45.9% (based on the average 10.9% precinct WPE). He even led the adjusted 12:22am Composite by 52.1-47.9%.

  33. Bush won Florida by 52-47% (a 368,000 vote margin) even though the Democrats had a 41-37% registration advantage in Touch Screen (TS) counties and a 42-39% edge in Optical Scan (OS) counties. But Kerry won TS counties (3.86mm votes) by 51-47% and Bush won OS counties (3.43mm votes) by a whopping 57-42%. The Final Zogby Florida pre-election poll had Kerry leading by 50-47%. Kerry won the exit poll by 50.9-48.3%. In 2000, Gore won 70% of 180,000 uncounted under/over votes. If counted, he would have won by at least 60,000 votes. Dan Rather's exposé on voting machines proved that poor-quality paper used in Florida punch card machines was a major cause of spoilage in heavily Democratic precincts.

  34. The New York pre-election poll matched the recorded vote (59-40%), while the exit poll was wrong (64.1-34.4%). But even if the exit poll was off (which it wasn’t), the 5% discrepancy is not significant. The margin of error for the 600-sample pre-election poll was 4%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote could have been anywhere between 55-63%. Assuming a 30% cluster effect, the exit poll MoE was 3.2%; there was a 95% probability that Kerry's vote was between 60.9-67.3%. Therefore, a Kerry vote in the 60.9-63.0% range would fall within the margin of error of both pre-election and exit poll.

  35. The NY 2004 recorded vote was fraud-free; lever voting machines are foolproof. But this implies that 100% of returning Nader 2000 voters defected to Bush. In 2000, the NY vote was Gore 60.5-Bush 35.4-Nader 4.1. According to the 2004 NEP Composite (12:22am), Kerry won Nader voters by 71-21%; 10% of Bush voters defected to Kerry; 8% of Gore voters defected to Bush. And Kerry did better in NY than he did elsewhere. Kerry won NY by 63-36% using weights based on the NY 2000 recorded vote, assuming his vote shares were two percent higher than in the NEP. Levers are highly vulnerable to fraud. Like touch screens, they don’t produce a verifiable paper record. NY votes exclusively on Levers; the WPE was 11.4%. CT, another heavy Lever state, had the second highest WPE (15.7%) of all the states. NY was number four.

  36. Polling data was cherry-picked and assumptions set to favor Kerry. But no assumptions were made in the following four models which used three different sets of exit poll data which included response rates and within precinct error (WPE) provided by exit pollsters Edison-Mitofsky. And they all produced equivalent results. The Exit Poll Response Optimizer confirmed the USCV simulation of 1250 precincts categorized by partisanship. Both models debunked the reluctant Bush responder (rBr) hypothesis.

    The Exit Poll Response Optimizer models used WPE and response rates for:
    1. 1250 precincts categorized by partisanship: Strong Bush, Bush, Even, Kerry, Strong Kerry. Kerry 52.15-Bush 47.85% (2-party)
    2. Location-size categories: Big Cities, Small Cities, Suburban, Small Towns, Rural: Kerry 52.15- Bush 47.85%
    3. The States: Kerry 52.3- Bush 47.7%
    4. National Exit Poll “Voted in 2000” category: Kerry 51.9- Bush 48.1%

Also, see: Election Fraud Polling Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide


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